Monday, January 30, 2017

Update On The SPR -- RBN Energy -- January 30, 2017

Trump presidency: Kardashian-on-Steroids.  Daily meeting in the White House -- networks shift to that "reality show." Generally makes a huge announcement. Today, Trump announces that he will name his Supreme Court nominee on television, prime time, tomorrow evening, 8:00 p.m. ET. Will follow up morning reality show with next reality show: signing one to three executive orders. Today's executive order(s) has/have to do with business regulations: regulatory freeze; each new regulation requires removal of two existing regulations; cost analysis must be done -- new regulation cost must match cost of two existing regulations. 

Trump rally: US consumer spending rose in December by most in three months -- Bloomberg

SPR: three days ago, I asked "tell me again why we're selling oil from the SPR?" Today, RBN Energy discusses the SPR. 

WTI: $53.22.

Futures: again, the "market" keeps things in perspective.

Travel chaos: less than 24 hours later, no protesters at NYC airport; only one individual still being processed. By tomorrow, we will have moved on. Heartland praised move. Border agents apparently supportive. Michael Moore turns out to major organizer of "spontaneous" protests.

Fitbit: to cut 10% of workforce; will miss guidance by large margin; shares down significantly in pre-market trading. AAPL earnings come out tomorrow. If I recall correctly, Fitbit had a bad quarter three months ago, also. Did I mention that AAPL earnings were coming out tomorrow. Link over at CNBC.

New "leader of the pack": VW, #1; Toyota, #2. Link at AP.

Leader of the Pack, The Shangri-Las

Mike is back! Filloon discusses Noble's acquisition in the Permian. Lukewarm.

Oilprice on the OPEC cut: OPEC does not have to worry about "managing lower oil prices longer; OPEC has to worry about managing lower oil price much longer." Link here.

Bloomberg on the OPEC cut: OPEC "keeping their word." Fly in the ointment: the Bakken.

And Speaking Of The Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs3845146190186

RBN Energy: update on the SPR. I just blogged about the SPR a few days ago; now RBN Energy provides an update, part 1.
The SPR’s ability to mitigate the effect of a severe supply interruption on refineries and on crude (and petroleum-product) prices has been compromised since the beginning of the Shale Era, though.
The problem is this: Because of four major changes since 2011­­—a) how much oil is produced in the Lower 48, b) where that oil is produced, c) how it is transported to refineries, and d) where U.S. refineries source their oil from—full-bore withdrawal in today’s energy world is unlikely to  have nearly the impact (for refineries and for prices) that it would have 15 or 30 years ago. Why’s that? Because while there’s technically sufficient capacity on pipelines connected to the four SPR storage facilities to receive all the crude being pumped out (even at the 4.415-MMb/d maximum drawdown rate), new patterns of oil supply and demand among U.S. oil producers and refineries (among other things) now constrain the SPR’s ability to distribute incremental volumes of oil into the market during a major supply interruption.
In other words, because of increased utilization of pipelines and marine terminals along the Gulf Coast in recent years—and a few pipeline reversals—it has become more difficult to move large volumes of SPR-stockpiled crude without disrupting the existing flow of domestic production and Canadian imports.
In other words:
  • it looks like the Obama administration did not coordinate with oil industry on how to do things better
  • it looks like the government could gum up the works -- I'm shocked, I'm shocked

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