The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog)

Saturday, April 16, 2022

What Happens When Wind Fails In New England -- April 16, 2022

On a quiet Saturday afternoon in New England, with an electricity demand at a paltry 12,000 MW, electricity is running at $100 / MW. Link here.

What gives? No wind.

First graphic: overview.

Second graphic:

at the right, note the percent of total energy provided by renewable energy: a paltry 7%
I don't recall this ever being so low; it's hard to believe it could even get any lower
so, why so low?

Check the third graphic:

of the renewable sources, wind is providing only 17%
17% of 7% = 1.19%
of all energy being provided New England, one percent is being provided by wind
wood chips are providing twice the energy provided by wind

So, with wind failing, how does New England make up the "deficit"?

Hydro power. Expensive hydroelectricity from Canada. Hydroelectricity is the "marginal fuel" making up the "deficit" caused by lack of wind.

I really don't care any more. I just find it fascinating.

Solar? Zero percent.

Jeep Paying Forward For EVs Wiith Profits From SUV Gas-Guzzlers -- April 16, 2022

EVs: link here. Scorecard.

One of the themes regarding EVs: margins will be narrow and as rare earths increase in price, the margins will get more narrow (narrower?).

Two things:

automobile manufacturers are "partnering" on their EV projects; why would they do that if margins were going through the proverbial roof?
automobile manufacturers are relying on margins of their SUVs / large pickups to pay for their low-margin EVs -- most of which are yet to go into production.

So, today, from msn.com: Jeep funds EVs with a 16-mph gas-power behemonth.

It’s not exactly in sync with Jeep’s new “Zero Emission Freedom” tagline. But like much of the auto industry, Jeep owner Stellantis NV is betting profits from gas guzzlers will fund the electric future. While other global brands have set targets for phasing out the combustible engine, Jeep still hasn’t set a date for going fully electric, and 97% of all vehicles sold in the U.S. are gas burners.
“We’re in a transitional period and there are customers that have some needs,” Meunier said in an interview Tuesday. “The vision is zero emission freedom, period -- that’s where we’re going for Jeep. The problem is you can’t do that overnight.”

Most Economists Now Agree Stagflation Is Likely -- April 16, 2022

I think I've been hearing this for the past two years -- stagflation this year, or next year, or maybe the year after that.

Unlike defined metrics for a recession, there are no defined metrics for a stagflation. Apparently it's like pornography: economists know it when they see it.

I was curious. How far back -- in modern history -- have economists been warming about stagflation?

From The Los Angeles Times June 16, 2011, over a decade ago:

Reporting from Washington —
Higher prices seeped from the gas pump into the broader U.S. economy in May, adding new hurdles for the sluggish recovery and the government’s options for boosting it.
The combination of a stagnant economy and rising inflation led some economists to worry that the country might be headed toward a repeat of the 1970s phenomenon of stagflation, which hobbled growth for years.
Wednesday’s Labor Department report rattled financial markets already spooked by the worsening debt situation in Greece and raised the specter that the Federal Reserve might have to raise interest rates sooner than expected to blunt inflation pressures.
The report helped accelerate the recent slide in the stock markets. The Dow Jones industrial average plummeted 178.84 points, or nearly 1.5%.
Economists cautioned that inflation is volatile and could sink in coming months if gasoline prices continue their recent downward trend.