Russia "Reluctant" To Boost Natural Gas Flow To Europe; Rigs Don't Matter -- Saudi Arabia -- December 20, 2021

I doubt this is political but talk of sanctions on Nordstream 2 gives Russia the cover they need to cutting back on natural gas sales to Europe.

This has to do more with Russia's critical need for natural gas as winter weather starts than politics. 

And if that's correct, it tells me all I need to know about "spare capacity." 

Irina Slav is reporting that Russia is "reluctant" to boost natural gas flows as cold snap hits Europe.

Saudi Arabia: rigs don't matter.

Burning Oil To Generate Electricity In The US -- As Bad As Coal But A Whole Lot More Expensive -- December 20, 2021

Link here.

For the past week or so, ISO NE has been very, very affordable; wind energy bringing overall price down. 

But it surprised me today. I wasn't surprised so much by the spike in price (6th decile) as I was about the "source" of that electricity: oil. Oil? Are you kidding me? I can't even imagine burning any oil at in the United States to generate electricity, but "NE" is literally right next to the biggest source of natural gas in the known universe. 

The Middle East burns oil to generate electricity, but in the United States?

Whatever. 

Not Only Completing Four To Six Wells Simultaneously, But Developing Three To Four Pads In Close Proximity -- December 20, 2021

Some time ago, I stated that fracking four to eight wells at a time on one pad was now the norm in the Bakken, and that operators who failed to do this on a regular basis would not be operating for long in the Bakken.

A reader at the time responded:

A few years back, some industry executive was explaining some of the economics behind not only 4 to 6 wells per pad simultaneously being drilled/completed, but also the then-emerging trend of simultaneously developing 3 to 4 pads in close proximity.

I did not give that much thought at the time. I thought the reader was repeating what I had said, but I missed the second part of that: "... the then-emerging trend of simultaneously developing three to four pads in close proximity."

 

Wow, it just occurred to me: MRO has a three-rig drilling program in the prolific Bailey and is reporting incredible wells. Likewise, CLR has a two- to three-rig drilling program in at least one of its high-density projects, the Long Creek Unit.

A Closer Look At The Most Recent FB Belford Well To Be Reported -- December 20, 2021

The Bruin FB Belford wells are tracked here. 

The well:

• 36302, conf, Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-14B-LL, Eagle Nest, 33-025-03775, first production, 6/21; t--; cum 123K 10/21; FracFocus reports two fracks, which we've discussed before:
• first frack, 5/11/21 - 5/22/21: 8.367 million gallons of water, 83.04421% water by mass; 10.22434% sand by mass;
• second frack, 5/11/21 - 5/22/21; 8.939 million gallons of water; 83.04421% water by mass; 10.22434% sand by mass;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2021	30	18583	18622	10298	25842	22537	305
BAKKEN	9-2021	13	12880	12734	8257	14162	12223	146
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	31390	31346	36670	39998	37939	1241
BAKKEN	7-2021	29	40500	40541	40207	43835	42432	1403
BAKKEN	6-2021	11	19332	19016	21922	17927	16383	1209

Geologist's narrative, summary:

• pad, well, and target:
• a north facing lateral well, middle Bakken
• on an 8-well pad
• goal of the build section was to land in the drilling window 14 - 24' below the upper Bakken shale in the middle Bakken
• the lateral was drilled to a total depth of 21,216' MD
• the target formation was 41' thick;
• the top of the target window was set for 14' below the top of the middle Bakken
• the bottom of the target window set for 24' below the top of the middle Bakken
• in other words, a target window 10' thick
• dates:
• spud date: August 27, 2019
• landing point: September 1, 2019
• total depth reached: September 6, 2019
• total lateral length: 10,094 feet
• drilling and max gas units
  
• above the drilling target footage: 2,563' 25.39%
• in drilling target footage: 7,531' 74.61%
• below the drilling target: 0 0
• daily footage and max daily gas in the lateral
• day 1: 3,600' 7,338 units
• day 2: 2546' 9999 units
• day 3: trip for MWD tool at 17,283' approx time: 18.75 hours
• day 4: 1,881' 8862 units
• day 5: 2,052' 2677 units
• assuming one day to drill the vertical well, this well took six days to reach total depth;

Three Wells Coming Off The Confidential List; Bruin Reportes Another Huge FB Belford Well; Shale Operators Cash Flow Update -- RBN Energy -- December 20, 2021

Over the weekend, Art Berman noted that US shale operators were "swimming in cash." RBN Energy discusses that below.

Now, Art Berman has tweeted again: world total liquids production has recovered to the December, 2014, level but remains about 6 million bopd (about 6%) less than the November, 2018, peak.

Art must have been on a roll, also tweeting at the time: "shale companies spent $6 billion in capital expenditure in the last quarter ... cash from operations, meanwhile, sits at around $13 billion, approaching record levels."

***********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: estimate only; NDIC provides update at close of business each day.

	12/20/2021	12/20/2020	12/20/2019	12/20/2018	12/20/2017
Active Rigs	31	15	54	69	51

Monday, December 20, 2021: 75 for the month, 104 for the quarter, 330 for the year:

• None.

Sunday, December 19, 2021: 75 for the month, 104 for the quarter, 330 for the year:

• 38185, conf, CLR, Tallahassee FIU 7-21H, Baker, 33-035-0659,  no production data,
• 37189, conf, Whiting, Feehan 11-9HU, Sanish, 33-061-04634, first production, 9/21; t--; cum 64K 10/21;

Saturday, December 18, 2021: 73 for the month, 102 for the quarter, 328 for the year:

• 36302, conf, Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-14B-LL, Eagle Nest, 33-025-03775, first production, 6/21; t--; cum 123K 10/21;

RBN Energy: E&Ps bas in the warmth of strong third-quarter profits, cash flow. Archived.

It may seem like a strange turn of phrase, but the best way to describe the E&P sector’s recent round of quarterly earnings calls is a celebration of remarkable climate change. Buffeted and nearly swamped over the past few years by price volatility, investor revolt, regulatory restrictions, and a global pandemic, oil and gas producers finally have the opportunity to bask amid robust returns in an increasingly sunny economic environment. 

E&Ps are enjoying higher profits and massive free cash flow, raising their dividends, and looking forward to 2022 with renewed optimism. In today’s RBN blog, we outline the dramatic recovery of E&Ps since mid-2020, examine the surge in third-quarter results, and look ahead to the next round of earnings calls this winter.