Saturday, May 2, 2020

Saturday Morning Links -- May 2, 2020

First things first: a happy belated birthday wish to Willie Nelson -- 87 years old this past week, April 29, 2020. Here are his 143 albums ranked by Texas Monthly. It's hard to believe that one of my favorite albums, "Highwayman" was only #70. I think my second all-time favorite was "Wanted! The Outlaws." It came in at #49. Wow. What a discography. Then there's "Waylon & Willie," number 11."Stardust," #3, and, it's hard to believe that the incredible "Red-Headed Stranger" came in at #2.

Kentucky Derby: postponed until September 5, 2020. 

From the other blogs, linked at the sidebar at the right:

Meltdown: I blogged about this a couple of days ago; Bloomberg now writes about it and even uses the same graph I used! Saudi outlook cut to negative at Moody's as reserves tumble. Fiscal deficit will widen to more than 12% of GDP in 2020.


Meltdown: VLCC floating storage bookings hit at least 71 -- ArgusMedia. Average cost: $77,000/day but Shell may hold the record -- a six-month charter with a three-month extension option at $120,000/day for the Eliza. This tells me that Shell expects this glut to last well into 2021.

Wuhan flu: the strategies don't seem to matter. The "curve" looks the same in every country, with or without "shelter-in-place" mandates. Amazing graph at realclimatescience.

Wuhan flu: pseudo-science behind the assault on hydroxychloroquine. Now we see why. Nine of the 50 panel members have ties to the company manufacturing Remdesivir which now has approval by the FDA as a front-line drug for Wuhan flu. I always thought the sudden reversal on hydroxychloroquine was strange and suspect. The reversal happened way too quickly. Almost like something out of Hillary's war room. Of all the articles linked on this post, this might be the most interesting, most important. Later: Remdesivir is probably worthless.

Endangered no more? One endangered bumblebee species may be off the list simply by reviving a single UK garden. Over at not a lot of people know that.

Endangered? The UK grid. Same story we've talked about before. Some interesting data points at this update.

UK renewable energy: after all this time, renewable energy in the UK still accounted for only four percent of energy consumption in 2019. My pet peeve: they include hydroelectric with renewable energy. Hydroelectric is not the "renewable" energy that concerns most folks. Take out hydroelectricit and the percentage of renewable energy drops even further. Having said that, the UK has very little hydroelectricity; what little they have is mostly in Scotland.

Meanwhile, over in China: to kick start their economy following the Wuhan flu debacle, China has approved nearly 10 gigawatts of new coal-fired power generation capacity in this year's first quarter, roughly equal to the amount approved for all of last year. How much is 10 GW? To put that in perspective, the entire UK coal-fired capacity at the end of 2018 was 12 GW.

April 2020 was almost as warm at 1865: central England temperature.

NOAA: second largest 2-month temperature drop in history in northern hemisphere record, from February-to-April, 2020. This was a 0.53°C drop. In that universe of global warming, 0.53 degrees is incredibly. Algoreans are only worried anticipating a 2-degree rise in global temperature over the next 100 years. By the way, the largest 2-month drop was also in the modern industrial age: a drop of 0.69 degrees Celsius was recorded from December, 1987, to February, 1988.

Johnny Appleseed: And we close with this .... social distancing south of Fargo, ND, winter:


Mr Vern Whitten sent that to me. What a great photo. He calls it "social distancing." Vern says he took the photo a couple of years back but it must have stuck in his mind all these years. For those interested in a huge catalogue of North Dakota prints visit www.vernwhitenphotography.com.

Weather: do I hear thunder? There was no rain / thunderstorms in the forecast for today as of last week. What gives. Okay. That's better. It appears to be simply a pop-up storm. Will be out of the area by 10:00 a.m. and then no more rain all day. A high of 89° is forecast but it will be partly cloudy all day.

Beef: there were reports that America's beef and pork supply might be interrupted due to Wuhan flu. If so, we're not seeing it it in Texas yet. The local Albertson's had a special yesterday: huge sale on ribeye steak -- limiting the incredible deals to one per customer. A steak originally priced at $19.94 was priced down to $7.94.


Friday, May 1, 2020

MRO Reports Another Huge Well In Reunion Bay -- May 1, 2020

I mentioned this a month or so ago: it's going to be hard to keep track of wells coming off the confidential list or DUCs that don't report an IP -- see sidebar at the right.

Another example. When this well came off the confidential list, no IP was reported, but it was reported as being on DRL status:
  • 34600, drl, MRO, Verne USA 24-21TFH, Reunion Bay, 
We now have production data but no IP; it is still on drl status:
  • 34600, drl, MRO, Verne USA 24-21TFH, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 80K in 45 days:
Production, that 45K over 16 days extrapolates to 83,768 bbls in a 30-day month:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-20202934302345934524037114034797
BAKKEN2-20201645219446765899545660042648

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The Recipe Page: Grilled Artichokes

Link here. 

Three key steps:
  • prepare herb-infused olive oil
  • prepare and steam the artichokes
  • grill

The Oasis Joplin Wells -- May 1, 2020

Updates

Posted July 22, 2020:
  • 35696, SI/A, Oasis, Joplin 5397 42-32 8T, Banks, t--; cum 64K 3 months; 
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-20201154121735416
BAKKEN4-2020302016520162269554023439785374
BAKKEN3-2020312114221131311813995539375503
BAKKEN2-2020292230522295313264777046990707
BAKKEN1-20207680677262514371264153
 
Posted July 12, 2020:
  • 35695, conf, Oasis, Joplin 5397 42-32 7B, Banks, 33-053-08811, fracked 11/25/2019 - 12/19/2019; 25 days; 19 million gallons of water; 92.1% water by mass; friction reducer, 0.06916 (high); huge frack; see completion strategies here;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-2020283572
4-20202542580560
3-202040763116291
2-20203682194549
1-20209162289


For the Joplin wells below, the parent well was:
  • 20554, 1,802, Oasis, Nelson 11-2H, Banks, t4/12; cum 270K 4/20:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-20203047354896985016699141902209
BAKKEN3-202031525850321232416436137262400
BAKKEN2-20202935753523130201163295791763
BAKKEN1-2020523506105755250
BAKKEN12-20190000000
BAKKEN11-20190000000
BAKKEN10-20192100035015
BAKKEN9-20190000000
BAKKEN8-201910001000
BAKKEN7-20190000000
BAKKEN6-201910001000
BAKKEN5-2019001320000
BAKKEN4-2019251167129459542303370610
BAKKEN3-2019311483132285051704618552

Joplin wells: initial production
  • 35728, SI/A, Oasis, Joplin 5397 41-32 2B, Banks, t--; cum 176K after four months; 50K month;
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN4-2020304229842300217959278091840864
    BAKKEN3-2020315002049990265661092351077811377
    BAKKEN2-2020294553445686261891055981040001526
    BAKKEN1-20203137855377022255694303916392509
  • 35727, SI/A, Oasis, Joplin 5397 41-32 3T, Banks, t--; cum 121K after four months;
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRuBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN4-2020302756427570213289125690331850
    BAKKEN3-2020313712137098302321115181100351405
    BAKKEN2-20202931046311492988875167740101084
    BAKKEN1-20203125615255194166678083758512077
 Original Post
I mentioned this a month or so ago: it's going to be hard to keep track of wells coming off the confidential list or DUCs that don't report an IP -- see sidebar at the right.

Another example. This well was another DUC that when "reported as completed," did not report an IP or any production. 
  • 35697, F/NC, Oasis, Joplin 5397 42-32 9B, Banks, t--; cum 93K in three months;
Now, we have production data, but no IP:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-2020303088530880255219888597889921
BAKKEN3-20203130651306352728493889926291183
BAKKEN2-20202931009309933153273996728551069

Later, June 28, 2020: more Joplin wells coming off the confidential list:
  • 35694, conf, Oasis, Joplin 5397 42-32 6T, Banks,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
4-20201088523964
3-20201793537997
2-20201971345468
1-20202163759323
  • 35693, conf, Oasis, Joplin 5397 42-32 5B, Banks,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
4-202030064100194
3-20202975294383
2-20202989075686
1-20202326070240
  • 35692, conf, Oasis, Joplin 5297 42-32 4T, Banks,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
4-20202119247269
3-20202256447048
2-20201747141554
1-2020906023708
  • 35728, conf, Oasis, Joplin 5397 41-32 2B, Banks,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
4-20204230091840
3-202049990107781
2-202045686104000
1-20203770291639
  • 35727, conf, Oasis, Joplin 5397 41-32 3T, Banks,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
4-20202757090331
3-202037098110035
2-20203114974010
1-20202551975851

Production Data For A "New" CLR Wahpeton Well Now Available -- May 1, 2020

I mentioned this a month or so ago: it's going to be hard to keep track of wells coming off the confidential list or DUCs that don't report an IP -- see sidebar at the right:

Here's a great example. On March 26, 2020, this well was a DUC reported as being completed, but no IP provided:
  • 35914, SI/A, CLR, Wahpeton 16-16H1, Banks, t--; cum --; fracked 12/6/19 - 12/17/19; 7.1 million lbs; 88.42% water by mass; friction reduction, 0.06511;
So, just on a whim, I checked the status of this well. The status: unchanged; still listed as SI/A. However, we now have some production data, and it looks like a great well. Note that all natural gas was sold in March, 2020. The Wahpeton wells are traced here:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-20203142567430034023566283662830
BAKKEN2-202071787417185146302308922139950
BAKKEN1-2020311711722187580758

WPX With Two New Permits; Five DUCs Reported But Most Remain In DRL/A Status -- May 1, 2020

OPEC basket: $14.36. Link here.

Canadian dollar: came close to 70 US cents.


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Back to the Bakken
 
Active rigs: pending

$19.695/1/202005/01/201905/01/201805/01/201705/01/2016
Active Rigs3065614929

Two new permits, #37547 - #37548, inclusive --
  • Operator: WPX
  • Field: Squaw Creek
  • Comments:
    • WPX has permits for two Appaloosa wells in NWNE 17-149-94, Squaw Creek oil field
Five producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 36502, drl/A, WPX, Skunk Creek 1-12HW, South Fork, t--; cum 54K in 81 days; see update here; these wells are tracked here;
  • 36261, drl/A, WPX, Mandaree Warrior 14-11HA, Squaw Creek, t--; cum 21K in 40 days;
  • 36775, conf, Whiting, Iverson 11-14HU, Sanish, 
  • 36260, drl/A, WPX, Mandaree Warrior 14-11HX, Squaw Creek, t--; cum --;
  • 36463, drl/A, WPX, Mandaree Warrior 14-11HUL, Mandaree, t--; cum --;