Tuesday, February 25, 2020

Natural Gas Production Update -- The EIA Dashboards -- The Bakken Is Surging -- February 25, 2020

Managing their resources: maybe this is why we saw the number of active rigs in North Dakota plunge from 54 to 49 overnight. The plunge occurred prior to the coronavirus shock of February 24, 2020.

Re-posting, but this time, look at the increase in natural gas production, per day, per average rig, in the three super-duper shale oil fields in North America. Look at "gas" in the three fields.
EIA dashboards, March, 2020, vs February, 2020:


Look at the crude oil production/well in the various fields?
  • Change in production, month-over-month, from one average rig:
  • Bakken: an incredible jump of 31 bbls/day/rig; month-over-month; and that was top of an already-high monthly production --perhaps this is why CLR is "damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead"
  • Permian: in comparison, despite low figures to begin with, the Permian saw a change of only two (2) bbls/day/rig, month-over-month;
  • Eagle Ford: similar profile to the Bakken, but lagging slightly



EIA Dashboards Have Been Posted -- Bakken Surges -- February 25, 2020

The February, 2020 "dashboards" have been posted.

EIA dashboards
, March, 2020, vs February, 2020:

Look at the crude oil production/well in the various fields?
  • Change in production, month-over-month, from one average rig:
  • Bakken: an incredible jump of 31 bbls/day/rig; month-over-month; and that was top of an already-high monthly production --perhaps this is why CLR is "damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead"
  • Permian: in comparison, despite low figures to begin with, the Permian saw a change of only two (2) bbls/day/rig, month-over-month;
  • Eagle Ford: similar profile to the Bakken, but lagging slightly



The right kind of oil: link here.


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For The Granddaughters

Lost in translation:


Where CLR Plans To Put (At Least) Twenty More Wells -- February 25, 2020

Graphic of the day: see this note regarding these two graphics:





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For The Granddaughters


Soccer, the season begins:


Coronavirus, The Crude Price Slide, And OPEC Production Cuts -- RBN Energy -- February 25, 2020

DOC: the RBN Energy blog today discusses the DOC, see more below the cut.
We start with a review of the OPEC-Plus production cuts, which were originally agreed in the Declaration of Cooperation (DOC) signed on December 6, 2016. The DOC called on 11 OPEC members and 11 non-members to cut output by a total of 1.8 MMb/d, starting on January 1, 2017.
The agreement was to last only six months, but it now runs through March 31, 2020, and might be extended again. Responding to market changes, DOC participants have deepened their agreed-to cuts twice and changed baselines against which reductions are measured. And while the DOC has been in effect, OPEC has gained two members, Equatorial Guinea (originally a non-OPEC participant in OPEC-Plus) and the Republic of Congo; it also lost a member, Qatar. Also since the signing of the DOC, OPEC has lifted and added exemptions from ceilings for members with production hampered by external sanctions or domestic problems. Libya and Nigeria didn’t have ceilings under the December 2016 agreement. Now, Libya, Iran and Venezuela are exempted from its production caps.
Re-arranging chairs on the Titanic: former Saudi Arabian energy minister, Prince Alfalfa, has been named the new minister of investment. Good luck. He will need it.

Liberty: back on April 13, 2013, the very first pipeline I highlighted was the "Liberty Pipeline," a Phillips 66 / Bridger Pipeline joint venture. It's back in the news.

Liberty Pipeline ops: Phillips 66 Partners gets 50%.
  • Phillips 66 Partners LP to acquire 50% interest in the Liberty Pipeline project
  • $75-million deal
  • cost of the pipeline: $1.6 billion (gross); about $800 million net to the partnership;
Mexico: politics threatens investment interest -- that was the takeaway regarding an article on the giant Zama oil field; Zama oil field?
  • one of the world's biggest shallow water oil fields discovered in the past 20 years;
  • 35 miles off the coast of Tabasco, Mexcio
  • two billion boe
  • operated by Talos Energy; apparently can't close the deal;
  • Talos: 35%
  • Sierra Oil and Gas (40%)
  • Premier (25%)
  • discovered in July, 2017
  • if you look at the map, and imagine where "that meteor [asteroid/comet]" hit 66 million years ago, Zama is at the circumference of that impact, at the 6:00 p.m. location
66 million years ago:
  • the Cretaceous-Paleogene extinction event; commonly known as the "K-Pg boundary;
  • a mass extinction in which 75% of plant and animal species on Earth became extinct;
  • most famous casualty: all non-avian dinosaurs
  • quick: spell the name of the supposed "impactor"
Noble? Not so much any more -- Noble Corp receives NYSE notice -- Noble has six months to bring its share price and thirty trading-day average share price above $1.00
can you say "reverse split"?
  • my dad always told me that he did not like reverse splits
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:


$51.402/25/202002/25/201902/25/201802/25/201702/25/2016
Active Rigs4966574039

Four wells coming off the confidential list today.
Tuesday, February 25, 2020:
  • 35830, conf, CLR, Imsland 5-31H1, 
  • 35829, conf,  CLR, Imsland 4-31H,
  • 35421, conf, MRO, Beatrice USA 31-15TFH, 
  • 33424, conf,  Sinclair Oil, Crosby Creek 5-5H,
RBN Energy: Coronavirus, the crude oil price slide, and OPEC production cuts. Nice history (archived).
Oil-production restraint by OPEC and 10 cooperating countries grows more challenging with time, and just when market projections began to hint at relief for the OPEC-Plus group, the spread of the new coronavirus in China and beyond became a sudden and possibly serious impediment to global economic growth and oil demand. Yesterday’s slide in crude oil prices amid newly heightened concern about the potential pandemic’s effects will only add to the challenges that OPEC-Plus countries will face in managing crude supply. So far, the OPEC-Plus group has achieved unprecedented compliance with its production ceilings, which it implemented in January 2017 and has adapted a few times since in response to market pressure. That effort has kept the crude price above the ruinous levels of 2015, memories of which have encouraged quota discipline. But the threat of a major, coronavirus-related slowdown in global oil demand could seriously undermine OPEC-Plus’s efforts, which already had been hurt by dissent within its ranks. Today, we continue our series with a look at Monday’s price drop, the latest supply and demand forecasts and a discussion of the obstacles that might affect OPEC-Plus going forward. 
Prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent dropped by 4% on Monday, February 24, on news that reported cases of coronavirus — a.k.a. COVID-19 — have surged in South Korea, Italy and Iran. While energy markets and entities such as the International Energy Agency (IEA), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and OPEC already had built in their forecasts at least some slowdown in economic growth and oil demand, new fears that COVID-19 could have a much broader impact — as reflected in yesterday’s oil price decline — may well result in further reductions in forecasted demand for oil over the next few months. And that could quash OPEC-Plus’s hope that, after more than three years of ratcheted-up production restraint, pressure on the group for still more cuts in production might ease as soon as next year. Of course, how this all plays out will not only impact oil prices but U.S. shale producers’ drilling-and-completion plans for 2020 and 2021.

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- February 25, 2020

Plagiarism much? Link here.

Cashless in Seattle: Amazon opens cashierless supermarket in Seattle, WA.

He didn't hang himself: in light of that recent death near Plymouth, CA, I thought it would be interesting to re-post the "Clinton list." Is this the real reason Zero Hedge was permanently banned from twitter?

Standstill: for unknown reasons, southbound traffic on TX Highway 121 into Ft Worth this morning at 5:00 a.m. had come to a complete standstill.

McDonald's: yesterday I mentioned a make-over. It continues. I have never seen this restaurant so incredibly spruced up.

Backyard: I need to bring my "real" camera and a telephoto lens; lots of birds on the patio, in the backyard. A first: a pair of woodpeckers, male and female. I had not seen that in our backyard before. The suet is attracting them. I am now convinced these are not ladder-backed woodpeckers in our backyard, as I originally thought. It is very, very clear that the woodpeckers I'm watching in the DFW area have their red plumage on the back of their neck / their nape and not on the crown of their heads. This makes it most likely they are red-bellied woodpecker.]

Florida: the one state Trump won't have to campaign in if Bolshevik Bernie gets the nomination. Bernie is "all in" when it comes to supporting Fidel Castro and Cuba. Miami? Not so much.

Lexicon: has anyone else noticed? When the GOP does it, it's "dirty tricks" (or worse); when the Democrats do it, it's "oppositional research."  Who coined the phrase?

Amazon: had it not been for Amazon, it's questionable whether we would have ever seen "same-day, free delivery" in my lifetime. Here is our local grocery store, offering "same-day, free delivery:


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From A Reader

The reader noted that the list below missed this one:
  • "Fixin' to trade my truck in on a Tesla."
Southern Boys Will Never Say
  • When I retire, I'm movin' North.
  • I'll take Shakespeare for $1000, Alex.
  • Duct tape won't fix that.
  • Come to think of it, I'll have a Heineken with a slice of lime.
  • We don't keep no guns in this house.
  • You can't feed that to the dog.
  • No kids in the back of the pickup, it's just not safe.
  • Wrestling is fake.
  • We're vegetarians.
  • Do you think my gut is too big?
  • I'll have grapefruit and grapes instead of biscuits, grits, and gravy.
  • Honey, we don't need another dog.
  • Who gives a rip who won the Civil War?
  • Give me the small bag of pork rinds.
  • Too many deer heads detract from the decor.
  • I just couldn't find a thing at Wal-Mart today.
  • Trim the fat off that steak.
  • Cappuccino tastes better than espresso.
  • The tires on that truck are too dang big.
  • I've got it all on the C: DRIVE.
  • Unsweetened tea tastes better.
  • My fiancĂ©e, Bobbie Jo, is registered at Tiffany's.
  • I've got two cases of Blue Moon iced down for the Super Bowl.
  • Checkmate!
  • She's too young to be wearing that bikini.
  • Hey, here's an episode of "Hee Haw" that we haven't seen.
  • I don't have a favorite football team.
  • "Youse Guys"
  • Those cutoffs ought to be a little longer, Betty Mae.
And the number one thing you will never hear a southern boy say:
  • Nope, no more beer for me. I'm driving a whole busload of us down to help in the Elizabeth Warren campaign.