And People Take These Guys Seriously -- September 9, 2019

*************************************

These Ten Will Appear On Stage

From a note posted earlier this year --

March 17, 2019: Beto announced this past week; everyone knows Biden is running; yet to announce. Biden (29%); Bernie (22%); Kamala (11%); Pocahontas (7%); Beto (5%).

How to keep them straight:

• Biden: Harold Stassen, plagiarist, groper, creepy
• Bernie: crazy, socialist, numerous million-dollar homes
• Beto: crazy, eats dirt, feeds feces to wife
• Harris: used to be hard on crime; at one time, #BlueLivesMatter--ed; now, not so much
• Pocahontas: no sympathy for those who cheat to get into college -- yes, she actually said that in response to the USC admissions scandal
• Booker: a blank face
• Buttigieg: former US Marine; alternate lifestyle
• Klobuchar: global warming speech during frigid snowstorm
• Castro: confused, as we all are; which twin is he?
• $ang: one grand/month to everyone, including billionaires and multi-millionaires
• Hickenlooper: a blank face
• Gillibrand: federal taxes of $27K on $210K income
• Inslee: Nude Green Eel -- only plank in his platform

Natural Gas Drives Me Nuts -- September 9, 2019

Natural gas drives me nuts. LOL.

I track US LNG export terminals at this post.

Earlier today I posted this update:

September 9, 2019: behind schedule? In the graphic above [at the linked article], EIA shows Cameron to have "T3" by 3Q19. A couple of weeks ago, SRE announced that the first train of the Cameron LNG liquefaction-export project had initiated service, located in Hackberry, LA. The article does confirm that the Cameron facility will have three trains. It's hard to say from the story, but it sounds like the capacity of all three trains combined is 12 million tonnes per annum of LNG, or nearly 1.7 billion cubic feet per day. Conversion at this site.

What drives me nuts about LNG? All the different ways they measure LNG and and all the different  ways they report it.

In the example above, they reported it two different ways:

• tonnes (not tons) 
• cubic feet

In one case, it's

• millions of tonnes (not tons), and
• billions of feet

And then most ridiculously, in one case they report volume:

• over one year; and
• over one day

Having said all that, three Cheniere Texas trains at Corpus Christi will provide 13.5 million tonnes per annum, or 330K boepd.

LOL. Now it's boepd.

But it does look like a typical LNG train has a nameplate capacity of about 4 million tonnes per annum, or a hundred-thousand boepd.

By the way, at the "conversion site" linked above, to add more confusion:

• "M" = million (not, thousand)
• "k" = thousand

Crude oil? Barrels of oil per day. BOPD. One number. Method.

Unless it's a spill and then it's measured in gallons. 

US Stock Market Jumps On German "T-Bond" -- WSJ --September 9, 2019

Crazy. Data points from one WSJ article this morning. Again, this is from one article:

• U.S. stocks ticked higher after economic data from Europe came in better than forecast
• European government bond yields also rose across the board on expectations of a rate cut by the European Central Bank
• the Italian 10-year yield rose to 0.916% from 0.885% Friday. The German 10-year bund was yielding minus 0.606%, up from minus 0.634% at the end of last week

Okay. The US market gets excited when the German 10-year bond rises to a minus 0.606% yield from a minus 0.634% at the end of last week.

You have got to be kidding.

Two questions.

With German 10-year bond yield trending toward a minus 1% yield, exactly how far can the European Central Bank cut rates? LOL. And Trump blames the Chinese for currency manipulation. LOL.

Exactly what is the difference between 0.606% and 0.634%?

Remember, when calculating with "%" -- move the decimal over two places .... so ...

• $100,000 x 0.00606 = $606.
• $100,000 x 0.00634 = $634.

So, if you have $100,000 sitting around, you will pay Germany $28 less if you let them hold your cash for ten years. I guess that $28 is for each year; if so, we're talking a savings of $280. Your $100,000 will return you $99,720.

Of you can buy ATT (T) which pays almost 6%. Every year, with dividend increases likely and capital appreciation almost guaranteed (over ten years). $6,000 x 10 years = $60,000, and, of course, one can take that $6,000/year and re-invest.

Einstein: strongest force in the universe -- compound interest.

What am I missing?

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, relationship, or career decisions based on what you read here or think you may have possibly read here.

Monday, Monday -- September 9, 2019

From Energent this morning:

North American rig location at this site.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, relationship, or career decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

I never in a gazillion years thought I would ever see this again:

What's going on?

Seven Wells To Come Off Confidential List -- September 9, 2019

Peak demand? Not so fast. Oil will "reign" as the dominant transport fuel, Rigzone. Data points

• gasoline, diesel and jet fuel dominate 98% of the transport sector
• passenger vehicles account for 40 - 50% of the transport sector (I assume the analysts are talking about fuel demand)
• global:
• 1 billion oil passenger vehicle
• 6 million EVs (at most; probably less)
• 2018, global
• 95 million cars sold
• 1 million of those 95 million were EVs
• JD Power, Americans re: EVs
• 39% would buy an EV
• 51% do not see EVs as reliable as oil-based ones
• developing countries: huge problem -- high cost of EVs
• example: China's "slowdown"; 2018
• 28 million cars sold
• 750,000 of those 28 million were EVs
• coal?
• coal accounts for 60 - 70 percent of their national power supply/demand
• EVs can increase home electricity use by 50 percent or more
• US
• top income quintile received 90% of the tax credits for EVs
• Tesla:
• unable to make a profit in 15 years
• faces even more uncertainty now that the company has hit its 200,000 units threshold, thereby phasing-out the $7,500 federal tax credit
• often unreported
• ICEs continue to improve, often just as fast as EVs
• example: SUVs operate about 99% cleaner than models produced in the 1960s

Hunch:

• Tesla outsells all other EV manufacturers by factor of "many"
• Tesla federal tax credits have ended
• hunch: Tesla's rate of growth in sales will fall -- significantly
• hunch: overall, US growth in sales of EVs will fall significantly, year-over-year, 2020/2019 vs 2019/2018

Venezuela: China stops refinery expansion; says it was not being paid; link here;

Rig count: continuing its decline, US oil and gas rig count drops by six; Elizabeth Warren says she will ban fracking; that will probably affect things a bit more than the current weekly rig count change;

Throwing in the towel: Cuadrilla owners have had enough; considering selling the company;

*****************************

Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off the confidential list today, over the weekend -- Monday, September 9, 2019: 26 for the month; 158 for the quarter:

• 35954, SI/NC, RimRock, Two Shields Butte 5-7-8-8H, Heart Butte, no production data,
• 35754, SI/NC, XTO, Tom State 34X-1A, Alkali Creek, no production data,

Sunday, September 8, 2019: 24 for the month; 156 for the quarter:

• 35979, 2,461, Newfield, Sturgeon 150-98-18-19-3H,  South Tobacco Garden; t7/19; cum 11K over 5 days extrapolates to 63,576 bbls/30-day month;
• 35753, SI/NC, XTO, Tom state 34X-1E2, Alkali Creek, no production data,

Saturday, September 7, 2019: 22 for the month; 154 for the quarter:

• 36014, SI/NC, RimRock, Two Shields Butte 5-7-8-1H3U, Heart Butte, no production data,
• 35752, SI/NC, XTO, Tom State 34X-1B, Alkali Creek, no production data,
• 35222, SI/NC, Hess, BB-Federal A-LS-151-95-0915H-6, Blue Buttes, no production data,

Active rigs:

	9/9/2019	09/09/2018	09/09/2017	09/09/2016	09/09/2015
Active Rigs	61	66	55	37	73

RBN Energy: Canadian shippers back on Enbridge's Mainline shift. Archived.

It’s a challenging time to be active in the crude oil market in Western Canada. Barrels are selling at a huge discount to domestic U.S. benchmarks, there is major uncertainty surrounding most new pipeline projects and crude-by-rail opportunities, and Alberta officials are unsure how long to maintain caps on production. As a result, the Canadian market is wildly volatile. It seems like a piece of the fundamentals equation changes on a weekly basis, which makes it next to impossible for producers, shippers, refiners — or anyone else really — to make long-term decisions and plan for the future. And now, the Enbridge Mainline pipeline system is asking folks to do just that: sign up for multi-year take-or-pay contracts on Western Canada’s biggest takeaway system, or risk leaving barrels stranded for who knows how long. Some market players aren’t buying in. In today’s blog, we recap the recent protests of Enbridge’s plan and examine what might be driving the decisions of Canada’s biggest oil companies.