Seven Wells To Come Off Confidential List -- September 9, 2019

Peak demand? Not so fast. Oil will "reign" as the dominant transport fuel, Rigzone. Data points

• gasoline, diesel and jet fuel dominate 98% of the transport sector
• passenger vehicles account for 40 - 50% of the transport sector (I assume the analysts are talking about fuel demand)
• global:
• 1 billion oil passenger vehicle
• 6 million EVs (at most; probably less)
• 2018, global
• 95 million cars sold
• 1 million of those 95 million were EVs
• JD Power, Americans re: EVs
• 39% would buy an EV
• 51% do not see EVs as reliable as oil-based ones
• developing countries: huge problem -- high cost of EVs
• example: China's "slowdown"; 2018
• 28 million cars sold
• 750,000 of those 28 million were EVs
• coal?
• coal accounts for 60 - 70 percent of their national power supply/demand
• EVs can increase home electricity use by 50 percent or more
• US
• top income quintile received 90% of the tax credits for EVs
• Tesla:
• unable to make a profit in 15 years
• faces even more uncertainty now that the company has hit its 200,000 units threshold, thereby phasing-out the $7,500 federal tax credit
• often unreported
• ICEs continue to improve, often just as fast as EVs
• example: SUVs operate about 99% cleaner than models produced in the 1960s

Hunch:

• Tesla outsells all other EV manufacturers by factor of "many"
• Tesla federal tax credits have ended
• hunch: Tesla's rate of growth in sales will fall -- significantly
• hunch: overall, US growth in sales of EVs will fall significantly, year-over-year, 2020/2019 vs 2019/2018

Venezuela: China stops refinery expansion; says it was not being paid; link here;

Rig count: continuing its decline, US oil and gas rig count drops by six; Elizabeth Warren says she will ban fracking; that will probably affect things a bit more than the current weekly rig count change;

Throwing in the towel: Cuadrilla owners have had enough; considering selling the company;

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Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off the confidential list today, over the weekend -- Monday, September 9, 2019: 26 for the month; 158 for the quarter:

• 35954, SI/NC, RimRock, Two Shields Butte 5-7-8-8H, Heart Butte, no production data,
• 35754, SI/NC, XTO, Tom State 34X-1A, Alkali Creek, no production data,

Sunday, September 8, 2019: 24 for the month; 156 for the quarter:

• 35979, 2,461, Newfield, Sturgeon 150-98-18-19-3H,  South Tobacco Garden; t7/19; cum 11K over 5 days extrapolates to 63,576 bbls/30-day month;
• 35753, SI/NC, XTO, Tom state 34X-1E2, Alkali Creek, no production data,

Saturday, September 7, 2019: 22 for the month; 154 for the quarter:

• 36014, SI/NC, RimRock, Two Shields Butte 5-7-8-1H3U, Heart Butte, no production data,
• 35752, SI/NC, XTO, Tom State 34X-1B, Alkali Creek, no production data,
• 35222, SI/NC, Hess, BB-Federal A-LS-151-95-0915H-6, Blue Buttes, no production data,

Active rigs:

	9/9/2019	09/09/2018	09/09/2017	09/09/2016	09/09/2015
Active Rigs	61	66	55	37	73

RBN Energy: Canadian shippers back on Enbridge's Mainline shift. Archived.

It’s a challenging time to be active in the crude oil market in Western Canada. Barrels are selling at a huge discount to domestic U.S. benchmarks, there is major uncertainty surrounding most new pipeline projects and crude-by-rail opportunities, and Alberta officials are unsure how long to maintain caps on production. As a result, the Canadian market is wildly volatile. It seems like a piece of the fundamentals equation changes on a weekly basis, which makes it next to impossible for producers, shippers, refiners — or anyone else really — to make long-term decisions and plan for the future. And now, the Enbridge Mainline pipeline system is asking folks to do just that: sign up for multi-year take-or-pay contracts on Western Canada’s biggest takeaway system, or risk leaving barrels stranded for who knows how long. Some market players aren’t buying in. In today’s blog, we recap the recent protests of Enbridge’s plan and examine what might be driving the decisions of Canada’s biggest oil companies.