The Polar Vortex Hits The Bakken -- Last Night -- January 28, 2019

From The Williston Herald:

The North Dakota Department of Transportation and North Dakota Highway Patrol issued a No Travel Advisory at 6 p.m. Sunday, Jan. 27, that includes Williston.

From the NDDOT:

The North Dakota Department of Transportation (NDDOT) along with the North Dakota Highway Patrol (NDHP) have extended the No Travel Advisory to northern North Dakota due to freezing rain, snow accumulations, and blowing snow causing hazardous travel conditions, slippery roads, and reduced visibility. Cities included in the No Travel Advisory are Williston, Minot, Devils Lake, Grand Forks, and surrounding areas. A No Travel Advisory means conditions are such that motorists should not travel in these areas.

Weather this morning, Tuesday, January 28, 2019:

• 18 degrees with a wind child of minus five degrees
• looks like it will a high of minus six degrees tomorrow during the day with a wind chill of minus 22 degrees
• Tuesday night it will hit a low of minus17degrees, with apparently no wind because the wind chill will also be minus 17 degrees
• by Friday, it will be above freezing, hitting a high of 37 degrees, or short-sleeve weather for the roughnecks

In the winter of 1965 - 1966 I would have been fourteen years old, a freshman in high school, or a ninth grader at Junior High School. I honestly forget if I was the high school or the junior high school in ninth grade but I think it would have been junior high school. I remember very, very clearly my eighth grade year at Junior High School, with Mr Thue. And I remember sitting in study hall right after the bell rang after lunch on November 22, 1963. I was sitting in study hall in the far, far right row, in the third seat back, or thereabouts. The editor of the junior high newspaper would have been a few seats to my left and behind me.

I do not recall January 29, 1966, being any colder than any other winter in North Dakota. If I was at the middle school (Junior High School), I would have been given a ride to school. If I was at the high school, I would have walked the six blocks.

I do remember walking  home from high school many nights after wrestling during the winters of 1966-1967 and 1967 - 1968. It would be well after dark, perhaps around 7:30 p.m. or so, and it could be twenty or thirty degrees below zero, absolutely calm, and an incredibly clear sky. The little bit of snow on the ground on the path I would walk was very, very crisp. I can still hear the crunchiness. I would get lost in my thoughts walking home, sometimes walking even more slowly to enjoy the freedom of being alone. I occasionally saw the aurora borealis.

I remember a particularly incredible aurora borealis show one of those nights. I was walking up 11th Street West and 6th Avenue West where I would have turned right to head home. I have no idea where I had been -- that was a roundabout way from the high school to get home. Whatever. All I remember is how beautiful the evening was, probably ten degrees below zero, no wind, and so incredibly calm. And no traffic. Had there been traffic, it is likely someone would have stopped and asked if I needed a ride. And the crunchiness of the snow.

There was no hurry to get home. I did not eat dinner/supper during wrestling seasons. I generally had a can of Tab and by the end of the week I was "sucking" on lemons to curb my thirst. I had to get down to my wrestling weight of 95 pounds for the weigh-in for the Friday night wrestling match or the Saturday wrestling tournament. My natural weight was 115 pounds and that was a very, very skinny 115 pounds. By February, we were allowed an extra three pounds, or 98 pounds for the 95-pound weight class.

After the wrestling match or the tournament, I would get home late at night, after everyone in the family was already in bed. My mother would always have a steak dinner warming on the stove for me when I arrived home on that Friday or Saturday night. It was the only night of the week I had a real dinner. We did not have much money in those days, but somehow my mom found the money to get me a steak.

All of that for this:

For The Archives -- "That" WSJ Article -- January 28, 2019

Re-posting for the archives, the argument that that Permian is not / will not produce as much as some folks have said it will:

• from the blog, January 2, 2019
• the big sleep, January 19, 2019
• fracking's secret problem -- oil wells are not producing as much as forecast, WSJ, January 2, 2019

The headline caught folks' attention, but look at the data:

Two-thirds of projections made by the fracking companies between 2014 and 2017 in America’s four hottest drilling regions appear to have been overly optimistic, according to the analysis of some 16,000 wells operated by 29 of the biggest producers in oil basins in Texas and North Dakota.

Collectively, the companies that made projections are on track to pump nearly 10% less oil and gas than they forecast for those areas, according to the analysis of data from Rystad Energy AS, an energy consulting firm. That is the equivalent of almost one billion barrels of oil and gas over 30 years, worth more than $30 billion at current prices. Some companies are off track by more than 50% in certain regions. 

The headline is based on this finding:

Collectively, the companies that made projections are on track to pump nearly 10% less oil and gas than they forecast for those areas.

I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, but even so, missing targets by 10% in unconventional oil is hardly news.

Over thirty years, the article says, that would be worth more than $30 billion at current prices. Wow, over sixty years, the figure would be $60 billion. Over ninety years, $90 billion. Anybody want to do the calculations for $180 billion? LOL.

Meanwhile, the EURs in the Bakken have increased from 350,000 bbls in the Bakken at the beginning of the boom to 1.1 million bbls in Tier 1 sites. Based on the increase in EURs across the Williston Basin, the number of Tier 1 sites is increasing. One of many examples: MRO and the company's Ajax area of the Williston Basin.

Again, this is simply for the archives, since I'm sure the issue will come up again.

Meanwhile, from just earlier this month:

One year ago -- repeating, one year ago, the EIA saw American crude oil production averaging just less than 12 million bopd in 2042 -- 24 years from now (from 2018) -- this year, the EIA says "Never mind."

The US will likely produce 14 million bopd in 2020 -- next year. 

A year ago, January, 2018, the EIA forecast that the US would average 11.95 million bbls by 2042. By 2042. That's 20+ years from now. Now, one year later, January, 2019, the EIA forecasts the US will hit 14 billion bopd in 2022, and will top out at 14.53 million bopd in 2031. 

January 28, 2019, T+26 -- January 28, 2019

State of the Union address, 2019: original invite for tomorrow, Tuesday, January 29, 2019. President Pelosi has said she has not yet decided whether it will go on as scheduled. 

NPR: North Dakota grows into its ongoing oil boom. I'm sure I posted this earlier. But I happened to see it again last night. It was originally posted by NPR on November 23, 2018.

Reaching this point has had its challenges. Five years ago many in these rural oil fields were talking about rising crime, including prostitution and illegal drugs. Another complaint was traffic jams from all the pick-up and tanker trucks traveling back and forth to the thousands of new wells that were drilled.

But visit Watford City now and the subject of crime doesn't really come up. The town feels less frantic. After years of growing pains, the region has spent a lot of money upgrading infrastructure to accommodate the influx of people drawn by the oil boom. A bypass around town has eased traffic on the main street.

Cabot Oil & Gas, Michael Fitzsimmons. Link here.

• Cabot will see a significant uptick in both volumes and realized pricing, now that the Atlantic Sunrise pipeline is online
• Previous guidance for $200 million in FCF generation in Q4 (an estimated $0.46/share) is likely to be met (or exceeded) for a number of reasons
• Long-term supply contracts to Cove Point LNG, as well as exclusive supply contracts with two electric power plants, have reduced risk
• As a result, I [Fitzsimmons] increase my price target from $30 to $31. That implies a near 20% increase from Friday's close

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

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Notes to the Granddaughters

Getting ready for rock climbing. Sophia now has her own climbing shoes and her own harness. Rental is $10/session; buying outright: $50.

On another note, I missed this one. I ran across it looking for something else.

Your great-grandfather made the "world news."

https://article.wn.com/view/2018/05/24/Carl_Oksol_96/

Nine Wells Coming Off Of The Confidential LIst -- January 28, 2019

Australian grid: How's that renewable energy working out? Those in Sydney, New South Wales, Australia are finding out. They will be paying upwards of $13,000 / MWh. The $13,277 / MWh starts out at 2:30 p.m. and lasts until 6:30 p.m. local time -- essentially all afternoon through the dinner hour. Link here. Coal would run about $35/MWh, I suppose.

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Back to the US

New congress, day 26.

Temporary re-opening of full government, day 3

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Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off the confidential list over the weekend, today -- Monday, January 28, 2019: 91 wells for the month; 91 wells for the quarter
35031, SI/NC, XTO, FBIR Youngbear 31X-9BXC, Heart Butte, no production data,
34000, SI/NC, Hess, SC-1WX-152-99-0809H-2, Banks, no production data,

Sunday, January 27, 2019: 89 wells for the month; 89 wells for the quarter
35032, SI/NC, XTO, FBIR Youngbear 31X-9G, Heart Butte, no production data, 
34198, 2,222, CLR, Norway 8-5H, Fancy Buttes, t11/18; cum 21K 11/18, constrained;
34007, 1,945, CLR, Radermecher 7-2H2, Camel Butte, t9/18; cum 79K 11/18; the Radermecher wells are tracked here;
33661, 498, Oasis, Berquist 5298 11-27 2B, Banks, t8/18; cum 105K 11/18;
32533, SI/NC, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-4B-9-4H, Charlson, no production data, a 5-well pad; the other four wells are DUCs; #33905 on a 3-well pad to the south is a good well, producing 12,000 bbls in first 11 days; the three parent wells in this drilling unit:

• 20342, IA/1,430, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-4B-9-1H, Charlson, t11/11; cum 900K 11/18;
• 27918, 1,167, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-4B-9-1HS, Charlson, t12/14; cum 412K 11/18;
• 27208, 2,260, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-4B-8-2HS, Charlson, t12/14; cum 581K 11/18;

Saturday, January 26, 2019: 84 wells for the month; 84 wells for the quarter
35033, SI/NC, XTO, RBIR Youngbear 31X-9C, Heart Butte, no production data, 
34008, 854, CLR, Radermecher 8-22H, Camel Butte, t10/18; 21K 11/18, constrained; the Radermecher wells are tracked here;

Active rigs:

$52.78	1/28/2019	01/28/2018	01/28/2017	01/28/2016	01/28/2015
Active Rigs	65	57	38	46	148

 
RBN Energy: more Mexican gas pipelines on the way, but challenges loom.

Mexico’s energy sector has been dealing with a fair amount of uncertainty of late. Newly installed Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has promised to undo elements of the country’s historic energy reform program, limit imports of hydrocarbons, and focus on domestic production and refining. How much will all this affect the export of natural gas from the U.S. to Mexico? It’s too soon to know what the long-term impact might be, but for now, gas exports remain near record highs and the pipeline buildout within Mexico is proceeding. That’s not to say, however, that the infrastructure work has gone without its own set of challenges — many of those were apparent well before the recent political changes. Today, we begin a series examining the opportunities and potential pitfalls ahead this year for Mexico’s natural gas pipeline infrastructure additions.

Mexico’s decisions earlier in this decade to shift away from oil-fired power generation, develop a fleet of new gas-fired power plants and build a network of new, large-diameter gas pipelines to fuel them have had a profound effect on U.S. producers.

Given that Mexico’s production of natural gas has been declining for some time now — and that gas production has been rising fast in the Permian, the Eagle Ford and other shale plays on the U.S. side of the border — it seemed natural that Mexico’s power sector would turn to the U.S. for an increasing share of its gas needs.

Back in July 2018, Mexico’s imports of U.S. natural gas by pipeline topped 5 Bcf/d for the first time. (Mexico also imports LNG from its northern neighbor.)

In addition, we’ve been tracking the buildout of new gas pipelines on both sides of the border. For example, the El Encino-Topolobampo pipeline; and, the Fermaca-built pipelines. It’s clearly time for another update because 2019 has the potential to be a big year for Mexico’s gas pipelines.

We’ll begin this new blog series by focusing on the pipelines entering Mexico from far West Texas. Later in this series, we will move further into Mexico to discuss other changes under way on the gas grid. However, before we dive into the details, we do want to give a brief update on the gas pipeline buildout in Mexico.

Remember When It Took Twenty Years To Produce A Million Bbls; How About Half-A-Million Bbls In Just Over A Year? -- January 27, 2019

This page will not be updated.

Another CLR Holstein Federal well comes off confidential list this week, and that should lead the way for a lot of new Holstein Federal wells to start producing. Holstein Federal wells are tracked here.

So, how is an earlier Holstein Federal well doing? The following well has had about 15 months of production.

The well:

• 30344, 1,536, CLR, Holstein Federal 12-25H, Elm Tree, 4 sections, t7/17; cum 428K 11/18;

The full production profile:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2018	30	27353	27434	10970	42681	41416	990
BAKKEN	10-2018	31	31279	31368	13936	49390	44771	4307
BAKKEN	9-2018	26	30204	30185	13590	42679	34447	7918
BAKKEN	8-2018	31	26925	26926	21555	41067	38009	2836
BAKKEN	7-2018	31	20399	20431	29171	29778	28444	1138
BAKKEN	6-2018	29	23948	23886	66094	39315	37943	1049
BAKKEN	5-2018	22	19677	19393	28935	30258	29763	405
BAKKEN	4-2018	0	0	9	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2018	1	935	1347	315	1457	1445	6
BAKKEN	2-2018	28	32811	32691	10946	49511	46674	2745
BAKKEN	1-2018	31	34149	34201	11018	47901	45019	2802
BAKKEN	12-2017	31	32298	32208	11088	43278	40741	2454
BAKKEN	11-2017	30	28873	29008	8775	38480	36599	1799
BAKKEN	10-2017	31	27675	27762	9157	36553	34994	1490
BAKKEN	9-2017	28	28288	28290	11303	34052	30566	3420
BAKKEN	8-2017	31	32250	31910	12693	39176	29873	9215
BAKKEN	7-2017	20	27539	27392	23025	37185	29673	7451
BAKKEN	6-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2017	0	0	3431	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2017	4	3431	0	18854	3739	0	3739