In Business News Today: The Biggest Story Not Being Reported -- September 4, 2018 -- Passenger Car Sales Drop 20%; SUV Sales Rose 20% -- Bigger Margin?

Ford F-Series, vans combine for best sales since 2005.

Since 2005.

Link here.

This is simply a re-print of the press release, but from 24/7 Wall Street:

Ford's August sales increased by 4.1% year over year to 218,504 Ford and Lincoln vehicles, compared with August 2017 sales of 209,897.

Passenger car sales fell 21.3% in the month while sport utility vehicle sales rose 20.1%.

Total retail sales rose 1.1% year over year in August to 165,794 units, and fleet sales jumped by 15% to 52,710 units.

Truck sales rose 5.7% for the month, and sales of F-Series pickups increased by 6.3% to 81,839 units, the best total for the month since August 2005.

If used for business, it's my understanding that Pa Jones can deduct the entire cost of his pick-up truck from his business profit in the year the truck was bought. Meanwhile, Ma Jones can do the same thing were her SUV. Best August since 2005. How many years ago was that? Wow.

The most under-reported story of the day.

And SUVs and pick-up trucks use a heck of a lot more gasoline / diesel than passenger cars.

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Holy Mackerel!

TSLA sinks: shares are down $12/share; down over 4%; trading well below $300.

And now, Mercedes-Benz will launch an EV directly competing with Tesla. 

Maybe this is the reason TSLA sunk today. Link here; the writer calls the results "mixed." The results don't look to "mixed" to me.

The results? Mixed.

Now entering September, we're in the last month of the third quarter. Through the first two months of the quarter, Tesla has apparently missed its goal to produce 6,000 Model 3s a week by the end of August, according to an Electrek report.

However, in its early-August earnings report, management said it expects to produce 50,000 to 55,000 Model 3 vehicles. So far, the company has cranked out nearly 35,000 units -- 15,000 shy of its range.

15,000 / 50,000 = 30% shy? Wow.

EV sales are tracked here. Toyota Prius Prime and Nissan Leaf were first to report; both were unremarkable. No other EVs have reported yet.

Sales:

• Toyota Prius Prime: 
• August, 2018 -- 2,071 (9% increase, year-over-year)
• August, 2017 -- 1,899
• August, 2016 -- zero
• Nissan Leaf
• August, 2018 -- 1,315 (14% increase, year-over-year)
• August, 2017 -- 1,154
• August, 2016 -- 1,066

Fond Du Lac Chippewa Reached Agreement With Enbridge Over Option 1 For Line 3 Route Completion -- September 4, 2018

Updates

September 6, 2018: from SeekingAlpha --

The agreement gives ENB easements for six existing oil pipelines through 2039; the company plans to build the new pipeline in an expanded right of way adjacent to existing pipelines on the reservation.

Original Post 

See post and map at this link. From that post:

Line 3: Chippewas are working with Enbridge to get this done --

The Fond du Lac Band of Lake Superior Chippewa said they are willing to allow Enbridge Energy to route the new Line 3 oil pipeline through the reservation.

The update from August 31, 2018:

Enbridge Energy and the Fond du Lac Band of Lake Superior Chippewa have reached an agreement to build the Line 3 replacement oil pipeline through the band's reservation near Cloquet in northeast Minnesota.

The financial terms of the deal are confidential. But the agreement provides Enbridge with easements through 2039 for the six existing oil pipelines that cross the reservation. The easements were scheduled to expire in 2029.

Enbridge will construct the new pipeline in an expanded right-of-way next to the existing pipeline corridor. The Calgary-based company will also remove the old pipeline from the reservation after the new line is built and in service.

Enbridge up 19 cents, about half a percent in early morning trading, September 4, 2018, first full trading day after announcement.

By the way, a reader provided this "flashback":

"LaDuke" is a Chippewa word that loosely translates to "show me the money." Some folks have wondered whether Ms Winona is a native American, but her high cheekbones -- at least according to Pocahontas, Democratic Senator, Massachusetts -- suggest that she is.

It's Official: Justin Trudeau Owns The Trans Mountain Pipeline -- September 4, 2018

Link here.

The transaction was completed through Trans Mountain Corporation, a subsidiary of the Canada Development Investment Corporation. The total purchase consideration was $4.5 billion in cash.

Meanwhile, CBR, the technology faux environmentalists love -- carbon-spewing diesel locomotives -- LOL: Canadian CBR exports set record in June, surpassed 200,000 bopd. That nearly doubles last year.

Think about that. 200,000 bopd. Trivial. The Bakken produces that much oil in four hours every day. And that Canadian CBR? We're not talking four counties in North Dakota: we're talking practically the entire Canadian oil sector, much of which has been shut down due to pipelines being delayed or shut down completely.

My hunch: if there is no movement with regard to the Trans Mountain Pipeline and if the tea leaves suggest that the earliest -- assuming all goes well -- this pipeline expansion could proceed is in 2021, there will be a huge surge in Canadian CBR. And those trains will enter somewhere along the northern tier (Montana, North Dakota, Minnesota) and will chug through Minneapolis and onto Chicago. 

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Another Fool

It's a fool's errand to predict the price of oil.

From oilprice:

If oil goes higher this winter, all things being equal, it will be on the "back" of "heavy oil."

See light / heavy oil at this wiki link.

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Making America Great Again

By the way, from the linked oilprice above:

“The fundamental picture is the strongest I've seen in quite some time," Kilduff said. "Everybody has got a job, everybody is driving to that job, and they're going to continue to drive to that job no matter what gasoline costs."

Best indication that there are a gazillion jobs out there: Ford F-Series, vans combine for best sales since 2005, F-Series sales increase for 16th consecutive month.

First Mention Of The Southwestern Production Corp On The Blog -- September 4, 2018

From the September, 2018, dockets:

• 26909 (case number, not permit number), Southwestern Production Corp, Tracy Mountain-Tyler, establish a laydown 320-acre unit; S/2 of section 21-138-102, ; one well; Billings County;

This is the first mention of Southwestern Production Corp on the blog, though the company has has been active in North Dakota since at least 1992, with about 25 permits/wells, all in Tracy Mountain oil field.

These are about the only wells still producing as of 7/18:

• 13460, 12/92; Tyler; cum 201K
• 15147, 9/01; Tyler; cum 278K
• 14853, 11/99; Tyler; cum 228K
• 14611, 11/97; Tyler; cum 372K
• 16219, 8/06; Tyler; cum 121K
• 13438, 11/92; Tyler; cum 235K (on its last legs with 15 bbls over 10 days in 7/18)

Welcome To The Bakken -- Post #26899 -- September 4, 2018

AMZN: trillion-dollar market today. Then dropped back a bit. So two US companies hit the milestone -- Apple and Amazon. Whoo-hoo.

Link here. On a down day for the market -- early trading -- Ford holds on -- flat, maybe slightly green. MarketWatch story here.

WTI: up almost 2% today. A dime over $71. 

So, I don't forget:

• Mad as hell: EU beef imports from Argentina increased by 10 percent and accounted for 17 percent of total imports, followed by Uruguay with 7 percent market share and Botswana with 2.65 percent. Imports from the United States increased by 180 percent, but still only represent 0.5 percent of total EU beef imports; the Marshall Plan; NATO support; US bases in Germany; and, in return, 0.5% of total EU beef imports; and the only person in the US who cares? Trump. Free trade? I don't think so. Link here. At the link, search for "0.5."
• Still mad as hell: those Canadian tariffs on US dairy products
• Idlib: back to the future; Obama drew a "reddish" line; Trump will draw a "red" line; John Kerry faults Obama on his "reddish" line -- the Syrians saw Obama's "reddish" as "yellow" -- proceed with caution, but proceed; Inshallah; Idlib on the blog in 2015; also, here;
• Trust but verify: XTO in the Grinnell; no wells in 30/31 -- what gives? See this post.
• SPR release: Saudi Arabia buying -- speaks volumes, doesn't it? 
• Ford: September sales to be released about 9:15 a.m. EDT today

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Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off the confidential list over the long weekend and today:

Tuesday, September 4, 2018 

• 33923, SI/NC, MRO, Maleckar USA 31-30H, Reunion Bay, no production data,
• 33122, 955,  CLR, Mountain Gap 9-10H2, Rattlesnake Point, some production; t6/18; cum 16K 7/18;

Monday, September 3, 2018

• 34597, SI/NC, MRO, Sheldon USA 21-30TFH, Reunion Bay, no production data, 
• 32529, drl, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-4A-9-8H, Charlson, no production data, 
• 30522, 804, CLR, Burr Federal 15-26H1, Sanish, 4 sections, t6/18; cum 21K 7/18;
• 29710, IA, CLR, Thorvald 3-6H, Rattlesnake Point, four sections, some production, the Thorvald wells are tracked here;

Sunday, September 2, 2018

• 32965, 692, Oasis, Ceynar 5198 12-5 4B, Banks, huge well; 125K in less than four months; t3/18; cum 172K 7/18; the Oasis Ceynar wells are tracked here.

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
7-2018	37599	89537
6-2018	28265	51263
5-2018	43039	90745
4-2018	37581	76222
3-2018	25525	56677

Saturday, September 1, 2018
None.

Active rigs:

$71.16↑↑	9/4/2018	09/04/2017	09/04/2016	09/04/2015	09/04/2014
Active Rigs	63	56	33	75	196

RBN Energy: to put this next story in perspective, see this post from yesterday. MPLX's strategy to pipe more northeast field condensate and heavier NGLs.

The Utica and “wet” Marcellus plays in eastern Ohio, northern West Virginia and western Pennsylvania are producing increasing volumes of natural gas liquids and field condensates that need to be moved to market. In response, MPLX, a master limited partnership formed by Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) six years ago, has been implementing a multi-part strategy to develop new or expanded pipeline takeaway capacity through the Midwest to deal specifically with the heaviest NGLs — natural gasoline and other pentanes — and with field condensates. That work is now largely done, the results have been positive, and MPLX is now undertaking the next phase of its strategy that will further expand the system’s capacity and add a new element: the ability to transport batches of two other, lighter NGLs — normal butane and isobutane — on a few of the same pipelines. Today, we discuss the next steps the company is taking to facilitate the transport of liquid hydrocarbons out of the Utica and Marcellus.

Two years ago we discussed the fact that while most of the market talk about the Utica and wet Marcellus focuses on either natural gas or lighter NGLs like ethane, propane, and butanes (normal and iso-), the side-by-side regions produce sizable volumes of natural gasoline (an NGL also known as plant condensate) and superlight crude (also known as field condensate or lease condensate), both of which are important products that have the potential for value uplift. Plant condensate/natural gasoline, separated out at gas plants and fractionators, is used as a gasoline blending agent, a feedstock for steam crackers and as a diluent — that is, blended into heavy bitumen crudes in Western Canada to reduce viscosity and enable them to flow more easily through pipelines. Field condensate, which is produced at the lease, can be blended into crude oil, run as a feedstock at refineries and condensate splitters or used as diluent, among other things. Also, recall that condensate splitters are simple refineries that process condensate into its component fractions — mostly NGLs, naphtha and distillate or jet kerosene. We noted that most condensate and natural gasoline was being transported within and out of Marcellus/Utica production areas via truck, rail or barge.

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The Book Page

River: One Man's Journey Down the Colorado, Source to Sea, Colin Fletcher, 1997.

Whitewater rafting levels of difficulty at this link.

• international system: I - VI (level 1 - 6)
• Grand Canyon only: 1 - 10 rapids scale

The Grand Canyon continues to use an older river rating scale that was developed before the International scale was introduced. A class V ( highly technical & difficult, etc.) on the international scale is equivalent to a 10 on the Grand Canyon scale.

From the book, in Marble Canyon:

• Soap Creek Rapid: 6,5,5,5
• House Rock Rapid: 9,8,7,7
• North Canyon Rapid, at Mile 20, the brink of the Roaring Twenties: 5
• 21 Mile Rapid: 5
• 24 1/2 Mile Rapid: 6,6,5,5, +)
• 25 Mile: 7,6,5,5
• Nankoweap, Mile 52, Mile 1000 of the author's journey: the end of Marble Canyon

Entering the Grand Canyon

• in the first twenty miles, only three rapids; the highest rating, 6
• first day, Unkar: 7,7,6,6
• next day, seventeen miles; eleven riffles and eleven rapids; four of hte rapids rated "8" or higher
• Hance: 10,9,9,8,+; vertical drop 30 feet
• then into the Inner Gorge; Precambrian rocks plunged steep into the river
• Sockdolager: 8,8.9,8; 19 foot drop
• Grapevine: 8; 18 foot drop
• through the Inner Gorge; three more rapids; then Bright Angel Creek
• Phantom Ranch
• Horn Creek Rapid: 9,10, 8,8; 10 foot drop); not recommended between 4000 and 10,000 cfs)
• Hermit Rapid
• Crystal, the first of the Canyon's two monsters; more than a hundred miles below Glen Canyon Dam;: 10,+
• 104 Mile Rapid: 7,6,6,5
• Specter: 8,7,6,5
• Deubendorff: 9,8,8,7,+
• they are on their sixth day below Crystal
• Havasu Creek
• Havasu Rapid
• Lava Falls Rapid, the quintessential "10" rapid with a 34-foot vertical drop; awestruck
• four more days of rapids, but no challenges
• Diamond Creek Wash
• the last few rapids; none rated above "6"
• Gneiss Canyon Rpaid
• Separation Canyon (p. 300)
• Grand Wash Cliffs, forty miles away, three days travel; easy

Out of the Grand Canyon