Weekly Petroleum Report -- Fourth Of Four Charts -- March 7, 2018

John Kemp regularly posts modified EIA graphs to accompany the EIA's weekly petroleum reports. He may post as many as a dozen or so such graphs every week after the report is released.

Today I took particular note of four of his graphs.  The first three graphs have to do with gasoline, but to spread this out, I'm posting one at a time.

This is the fourth (and last) graph of the four.

Everybody's making a big deal that US crude oil inventories have decreased significantly since last year at this time. Is it a big deal? Maybe it is, maybe it isn't? If you are dying of thirst, stranded on a over-turned boat in the middle of a body of water, would it matter if it was the Mediterranean Sea or the Pacific Ocean. (Yes, I know the analogy is just the opposite of what we're talking about, but you get the idea.) Last year the "glut" was 300,000 bbls over the 10-year median. This year, the "glut" is 200,000 bbls over the 10-year median. If the decline were continuing at the same rate, then it might mean something, but the decline is not continuing. It has leveled off (in fact, it's been going up the past three weeks, or so).

It's also important to note that the 10-year median has been artificially "elevated" by two of the ten years -- during the Saudi Surge, when Saudi opened the spigots (2015 - 2017). Knock that median down a bit and the "glut" is even worse than that shown in the graph above.

The most recent "re-balancing data" is at this post, and it's trending in the wrong direction.

Making America Great Again! -- Huge ADP Jobs Report; Nine New Permits; Nine Permits Renewed: Eleven DUCs Completed; MRO With Five Huge Wells -- Many Of Them Three Forks Wells

ADP data:

• forecast: 195,000 new jobs for February, 2018
• actual: a whopping 235,000 new jobs

From The Financial Times:

Non-farm private employers added 235,000 jobs last month, according to a report from payroll processor ADP. The figure easily topped expectations for a gain of 200,000 and is the fourth month in a row that job gains came in above 200,000.

The data - which come ahead of Friday’s closely watched monthly jobs report from the labour department - also revised up jobs gains for December to 244,000.

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Back to the Bakken

"Arctic" rigs:

$61.15↓↓	3/7/2018	03/07/2017	03/07/2016	03/07/2015	03/07/2014
Active Rigs	60	44	35	114	191

Nine new permits:

• Operators: Whiting (5); Petro-Hunt (4)
• Fields: Sand Creek (McKenzie); Charlson (McKenzie)
• Comments: Whiting has permits for a 5-well Wold Federal pad in SESE 1-153-97; Petro-Hunt has permits for a 4-well USA pad in SESW 34-154-95;

Nine permits renewed:

• Sinclair (6): six Lizzie Rae permits in McKenzie County
• EOG (2): two Austin permits in Mountrail County
• Hunt: one Oakland permit in Mountrail County

Eleven producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 30252, 1,823, CLR, Monroe 9-2H, Banks, 4 sections, t1/18; cum 11K over 9 days;
• 30254, 1,302, CLR, Monroe 8-2H, Banks, 4 sections,  t1/18; cum 7K over 10 days;
• 31415, 1,836, Hess, EN-Kulczyk-154-94-2029H-7, Alkali Creek, t2/18; cum --
• 31417, 1,824, Hess, EN-Kulczyk-154-94-2029H-5, Alkali Creek, t2/18; cum --
• 31427, 1,251, CLR, Stangeland 8-7H, Crazy Man Creek, 4 sections, t2/18; cum --
• 31428, 633, CLR, Stangeland 9-7H1, Crazy Man Creek, 4 sections, t2/18; cum --
• 33400, 3,017, MRO, Ernst 14-7TFH, Bailey, t2/18; cum 12K over 7 days; (#16654, #16993, #17797, #18382)
• 33401, 3,161, MRO, Kenneth 24-7TFH, Bailey, t1/18; cum 4K over 4 days;
• 33402, 3,040, MRO, Bethol 34-7H, Bailey, t2/18; cum --
• 33403, 3,484, MRO, Stroup 34-7TFH, Bailey, t2/18; cum 5K over 4 days;
• 33534, 5,113, MRO, Bronett 14-7H, Bailey 4 sections, t1/18; cum 27K over 11 days - extrapolates to 73K over 30 days;

Weekly Petroleum Report -- Third Of Four Charts -- March 7, 2018

John Kemp regularly posts modified EIA graphs to accompany the EIA's weekly petroleum reports. He may post as many as a dozen or so such graphs every week after the report is released.

Today I took particular note of four of his graphs.  The first three graphs have to do with gasoline, but to spread this out, one graph at a time.

In the third in a series of posts, here is my take on one of those four graphs, the third of three graphs on US gasoline.

Three of the four graphs I'm in this series had to do with gasoline and/or refining. This is the last of the three.

This one simply blows me away. I don't think anyone is making a big deal of it but unless I'm misreading it, this is the first (or possibly, the second) time refiners have set a record this year in gasoline production. It occurred at the very same time as it did one year ago.

I assume refiners are getting ready for driving season but if so, they are more than ready. Last year, refiners set records throughout the year with gasoline production except for a period after the two devastating Texas and Florida hurricanes.

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Notes to the Granddaughters

I don't recall exactly when, but sometime in the past few weeks, I started watching my favorite DVDs again. It coincided with my decision to stop watching television during this unprecedented volatility in the equity market accompanied by inane and banal talk emanating from talking heads.

One of my favorite DVDs is The Great Gatsby. I've blogged about it often, and have read the book several times. I'm still fascinated by the book. Woody Allen's Midnight In Paris is a real hoot for any Gatsby fan. It is clear that Woody Allen "knew" F. Scott Fitzgerald and Ernest Hemingway and Gertrude Stein and .... very, very, very well.

So, today, what a pleasure to have run across Gatsby: The Cultural History of the Great American Novel, Bob Batchelor, c. 2014.

More later. I am curious about "irony" in The Great Gatsby, something Harold Bloom deems quite important.

Weekly Petroleum Report -- Second Of Four Charts -- March 7, 2018

John Kemp regularly posts modified EIA graphs to accompany the EIA's weekly petroleum reports. He may post as many as a dozen or so such graphs every week after the report is released.

Today I took particular note of four of his graphs.  The first three graphs have to do with gasoline, but to spread this out, one at a time.

In the second in a series of posts, here is my take on one of those four graphs.

This is a most incredible graph.

This is why it is so incredible. Take a look at this graph -- gasoline production data.

In that graph, one can see that gasoline production is likely to test last year's record production.

Refinery throughput appears to continue to set all-time (seasonally-adjusted) records.

This is why this graph is so incredible: US refiners are operating at 88% capacity (and, at least one refiner wants to expand operating capacity of the largest US refiner in the US).

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Notes To The Granddaughters

I don't recall having ever read anything by William Faulkner and that's saying a lot. Starting back in 2000, I voraciously started reading, ultimately putting together a reading program of which I am quite proud. Going through my journals (literally scores of journals devoted to literature) I have nothing on Faulkner except a listing of the top 100 best English novels as compiled by Time Magazine critics Lev Grossman and Richard Lacayo back in 2009, from a list of novels dating back to 1923.

The list is alphabetical, not ranked in any order. Faulkner is on the list with Light in August and The Sound and the Fury.

It's time, I guess, for me to read a bit about, and perhaps read a bit of, William Faulkner.

I will start with William Faulkner: The Yoknapatawpha Country, Cleanth Brooks, c. 1963. The first thing I noted: what little I have read reminds me a lot of Rob Roy and Sir Walter Scott. Wow.

Nothing new under the sun.

I can't wait to really get into this book.

Weekly Petroleum Report -- First Of Four Charts -- March 7, 2018

John Kemp regularly posts modified EIA graphs to accompany the EIA's weekly petroleum reports. He may post as many as a dozen or so such graphs every week after the report is released.

Today I took particular note of four of his graphs.  The first three graphs have to do with gasoline, but to spread this out, one at a time.

In the first in a series of posts, here is my take on one of those four graphs.

The graph says it all: tell me again why the price of gasoline in the US isn't falling more quickly (later we will see graphs that add even more "punch" to this question)? It looks like refiners cannot help themselves -- at the beginning of the year, refiners were providing gasoline at record levels and although it has fallen off its highs from last year (2017) production is back on track to test last year's record production.

Exports? Gasoline exports? A drop in the bucket. Exports don't explain the increase.

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Muscle Shoals

I'm back in my Roy Orbison phase, specifically his last (?) album, Mystery Girl.

I had noticed this before but one track from the album, "The Only One" is definitely a Muscle Shoals song.

I've talked about Muscle Shoals before. Had it not been for the blog, and had it not been for a reader who introduced me to Muscle Shoals I never would have discovered "it" on my own.

As one point of departure, see this site, "Muscle Shoals: Red Bull Music Academy Daily."

It is difficult to find the dots connecting "Muscle Shoals" with "The Only One" but I think I have found it.

See Craig Wiseman and "Big Loud" at this link.