Nice Production After Being Returned To Status -- January 1, 2017

Production profile for:

• 20629, 929, CLR, Patterson 1-13H, Camp, t10/11; cum 278K 1/17; although paperwork is sometimes delayed, the scout ticket shows this well as still flowing on its own; not on a pump;

Production profile for past couple of years:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2017	31	5067	5088	3280	5272	4476	338
BAKKEN	12-2016	29	6662	6629	3693	7341	5038	1887
BAKKEN	11-2016	28	8006	7774	5605	8444	6141	1873
BAKKEN	10-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2016	1	0	0	0	7	7	0
BAKKEN	4-2016	21	895	1422	722	1103	839	0
BAKKEN	3-2016	31	1991	2009	1565	2702	2221	0
BAKKEN	2-2016	29	2593	2454	1837	3442	1937	1055
BAKKEN	1-2016	31	2841	2791	1836	4048	1030	2540
BAKKEN	12-2015	18	1697	1431	1750	2081	1817	0
BAKKEN	11-2015	7	424	702	148	63	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2015	28	3450	3664	1518	805	0	371
BAKKEN	9-2015	14	2004	1329	1681	392	0	180
BAKKEN	8-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2015	8	443	914	425	1161	366	674
BAKKEN	6-2015	30	1897	1692	1411	4112	1810	1837
BAKKEN	5-2015	31	2110	2064	1634	4859	3690	690
BAKKEN	4-2015	30	2209	2339	1705	4238	507	3270
BAKKEN	3-2015	31	2380	2635	1841	4399	298	3620
BAKKEN	2-2015	28	2207	2306	1647	3980	376	3180
BAKKEN	1-2015	31	2937	2686	2408	3832	31	3320

Note increase in production from 2,000 bbls/oil/month back in 2015. It was taken of-line for a number of months while a neighboring well was being fracked.

When it came back on-line in 11/16, production jumped four-fold to over 8,000 bbls oil/ month.

Happy New Year -- January 1, 2017

Active rigs:

	1/1/2017	01/01/2016	01/01/2015	01/01/2014	01/01/2013
Active Rigs	39	60	170	185	183

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Top Stories

Top stories of 2016

Top stories by month

Top stories of 2015

All top stories (tab at the top)

The Geico Rock Award, 2016.

Chicago homicides (preliminary 2016 totals): 795 

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Others

This is really, really cool. After I posted the above, I did a google search, energy top ten stories 2016.

This was the first hit: energy trends.

#1: Donald Trump wins presidency (this was also my first choice)
#2: OPEC agrees to production cuts (at top of my list also)
#3: DAPL: ditto
#4: coal bankruptcies -- I did not mention coal at all on my long list
#5: oil and natural gas prices bottomed: premature, but probably accurate;

It looks like oilprice.com has not yet posted its top ten list for 2016.

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Parting Shot

It's interesting that no one -- literally no one -- even mentions the "fact" that the Russians "stole" the election from Hillary as a "top story" of 2016. I suppose it's because anyone paying attention already knew back in 2013 that the Russians were capable of asymmetrical warfare (e.g. cyberwar). The WSJ has the story. My hunch: the president missed that intelligence briefing. [By the way, this is another binary factoid: either the US intelligence network (all 17 agencies according to Hillary) knew about Russia's action before the election but failed to act; or, the US intelligence network was not aware of Russia's cyber attack until after the election. I suppose there is a third possibility: President Obama was told but wanted to see how this would all play out, knowing, in his own words, that Hillary would win anyway.]

From Russia With Love, Matt Monro

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Looking Forward ... but a little history first

2017 should be recognized as the 10th year anniversary of the Bakken boom. The boom began with an EOG well in the Parshall oil field in 2006, but I've always "felt" the boom began in 2007. The second "confirmatory" well was perforated/fracked/completed in March, 2007.

History of the early Bakken: 2004 - 2006.
Brief history of oil production from the Bakken.

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Looking Forward

Sure bet: new all-time snowfall record will be set, winter, 2016 - 2017. Bismarck only needs 2 inches to beat all-time record. Forecast today for Bismarck: 7.5 inches. Williston, almost 7".

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Other News

Updates

February 21, 2017: a long essay on New York City's new Second Avenue subway. 

Original Post 

 

Newest subway in NYC opened today, Sunday, January 1, 2017 -- Second Avenue Subway
nearly a century to build; runs from the Upper East Side in Manhattan to Coney Island in Brooklyn; three new stations opened today

Gasoline To Increase In Price In Mexico; Then Based On Market -- December 31, 2016

Updates

January 2, 2016: as usual, the MDW blog is foreshadowing what the New York Times will be reporting. The credit goes to the readers who send me the links.

The New York Times is reporting that Mexicans are protesting the increase in the price of gasoline:

Small groups of protesters blockaded some roads and gasoline stations in Mexico on Monday to protest a government price deregulation that sent the price of fuel up by as much as 20 percent over the weekend.

One group blockaded a privately owned gasoline station on Mexico City's main boulevard, shouting: "The people, united, will never be defeated!"

"This will increase the cost of living for all Mexicans. It will make more expensive transportation, basic food stuffs, food, and it will ultimately hit Mexican families," said Rafael Sotocruz, a nurse who was protesting at the station.

On a busy highway leading into the capital from the west, another group blocked traffic and held up a banner reading "Enough already!"

Original Post

 

There have been several stories about gasoline consumption in Mexico in the past few days. Now this:

Mexicans are bracing to kickstart the New Year on a sour note, with protests planned against the government's huge hike in gasoline prices.

President Enrique Pena Nieto has promised that fuel prices will fall thanks to his landmark 2014 energy reform, which ended a seven-decade-old monopoly held by the state-run firm Pemex.

The government plans to end subsidies and let the market dictate prices in March, but Mexicans will feel the pinch at the pump before they start falling.

The finance ministry announced Tuesday that the price of gasoline would increase by as much as 20.1 percent to 0.88 dollars per liter on January 1, while diesel would rise by 16.5 percent to 0.83 dollars.

The price ceiling will be adjusted daily from February 18, before letting supply and demand determine them in March.

• A gallon = 3.78541 gallons. More or less. 
• $0.81 x 3.78541 = $3.33 / gallon.

Really? In Mexico?

We're paying about $2.20/gallon here in the DFW, Texas, area.

Interesting Things Happening On The Easternmost Fringe Of The Bakken; Random Look At Three EOG Wells -- December 31, 2016

Disclaimer: in a long note like this there will be typographical and factual errors. 

Some interesting things appear to be happening on the eastern fringe of the Bakken (see this post also). When I look at the "heat map of the Bakken," I could make a case for these three wells being just to the east of core region #6 as designated by Wood Mackenzie at the link. These wells are very close to Ward County (Minot). But it's close. Regardless, we are certainly at the eastern fringe of the Bakken based on drilling activity.

We're going to take a look at an EOG well, #17222. Look how far to the east it is, on the eastern fringe of the Bakken. There are very few wells to the east of these wells:

Now, drilling down, let's take a closer look at 17222, a short lateral, and then two long laterals that were drilled and completed later. Two wells that came very, very close to #17222 were fracked at a later date. #17222 was taken off-line while neighboring wells were taken off-line. Note the production profile of #17222 after it came back on line. The three wells are all middle Bakken wells; also note the names of these wells, paying attention to their chronologic designation (#18, #421, and #422):

The index well: #17222, a short lateral --

Pay attention to water production before and after this well was taken off-line while neighboring wells were fracked. This is most likely due to produced water being injected into #17222 when neighboring wells are being fracked -- see reason why this is done, below in bold.

And, then even more importantly, note the amount of natural gas produced before and after the well was taken off-line while neighboring wells were fracked.

From the sundry report dated February 22, 2016, prior to fracking neighboring wells:

EOG is currently executing a downspacing and infill drilling program. During this process the new infill wells are being hydraulically fractured offset to existing/producing wells. The existing wells in close proximity to the new infill wells are shut in during the drilling and completion process. Pressure pulses have been noted in the existing shut in wells during this process. Due to the pressure pulses, sand from the completions in the original wells can become dislodged and enter the wellbore. When sand enters the existing wellbore it can damage pumping equipment and/or plug the wellbore. When this occurs wellbore intervention is required to replace the damaged pumping equipment and may also require the wellbore to be cleaned out, both operations are costly and slow the process of returning offset wells to production.

As a mitigation measure, EOG is requesting approval to fill the existing wellbore with produced water from nearby producing wells. The fluid would increase the hydrostatic pressure in the existing well and assist in counter-acting the pressure pulses and sand influxes impacting the well from the drilling and completion process of the infill wells.

The fluid will be pumped at a very low surface pressure with a fluid pump. Pumping pressures are planned below 500 psi. At or before reaching 500 psi, pumping would cease keeping the pressure below fracture pressure.

Produced water will be transported by truck or pipeline for the process.

• 17222, 1,769, EOG, Austin 18-21H, Parshall, short lateral, open hole, 2 million lbs, t9/08; cum 897K 11/16; cum 1.04 million bbls; off line 4/23; production profile before and after neighboring wells were fracked:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2016	30	5350	5354	1059	2465	1576	705
BAKKEN	10-2016	30	5434	5435	1222	2437	823	1436
BAKKEN	9-2016	30	5423	5422	1448	2247	1605	458
BAKKEN	8-2016	31	5165	5225	2028	1971	1425	356
BAKKEN	7-2016	31	5012	4947	2778	2022	1281	551
BAKKEN	6-2016	14	1764	1685	1849	860	626	152
BAKKEN	5-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2016	0	0	37	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2016	20	1690	1713	104	2263	2047	95
BAKKEN	12-2015	31	2704	2706	92	3337	2370	777
BAKKEN	11-2015	30	2357	2348	69	2741	513	2050
BAKKEN	10-2015	31	2129	2136	66	2548	1167	1197

Two neighboring wells that were fracked/tested June, 2016, both long laterals:

• 32417, 257 (no typo), EOG, Austin 421-2821H, 44 stages, 17.2 million lbs: cum 439K 5/23; struggling;
  

Monthly Production Data

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2016	30	22494	22469	7947	22494	17114	4896
BAKKEN	10-2016	31	27818	27811	10465	24826	8495	15831
BAKKEN	9-2016	30	28356	28379	12226	20680	14961	5237
BAKKEN	8-2016	31	29096	29105	16470	17789	13882	3407
BAKKEN	7-2016	31	31236	31212	25850	19024	7860	10671
BAKKEN	6-2016	14	8756	8634	18582	1882	1164	513

• 32418, 681, EOG, Austin 422-2821H, Parshall, 42 stages, 16.3 million lbs;, t6/16; cum 170K 11/16; cum 511K 5/23;

Monthly Production Data

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2016	25	19915	19929	3314	19175	14643	4175
BAKKEN	10-2016	31	32818	32820	5769	28769	9881	18389
BAKKEN	9-2016	30	36229	36264	7616	27315	19876	6957
BAKKEN	8-2016	31	38248	38233	11476	24480	19254	4726
BAKKEN	7-2016	31	35299	35245	20196	20977	8690	11797
BAKKEN	6-2016	14	7985	7874	9849	1833	1244	386

Random Update Of An Old Fidelity (MDU) Well Restored To Production By Kaiser-Francis Oil; EOG Reports Fracking With Almost 23 Million Lbs Sand -- December 31, 2016

Kaiser-Francis:

• 17641, 448, Kaiser-Francis/Fidelity, Fladeland 44-31H, Sanish field, t7/09; cum 113K 11/16; this well was taken off-line December, 2014 (though there is record of 3 bbls of production 5/15); in 11/16, this well was "cleaned out" and brought back into production by Kaiser-Francis. 

Mega-Fracks / High Intensity Fracks: Note. I don't have time to check completions on all wells. When I do check completions, I update them, and if the completions are noteworthy, I might post a stand-alone post on them. This is just one random example. Note this EOG well,  22.72 million lbs of sand; 58 stages:

• 30442, 1,135, EOG, Shell 17-2819H, 58 stages, 22.72 million lbs, t10/16; cum 30K 11/16;

The sister well on this pad also used a lot of sand:

• 30444, 407, EOG, Shell 15-2819H, 49 stages, 19.84 million lbs, t10/16; cum 20K 11/16;

Two EOG wells in the same section, on a 2-well pad, just to the east:

• 30469, 1,203, EOG, Shell 22-2819H, 54 stages, 22.03 million lbs, t10/16; cum 43K 10/16;
• 30781, 1,211, EOG, Shell 23-2820H, 49 stages, 19.84 million lbs, t10/16; cum 36K 11/16;

In addition to how much sand EOG used on these wells, note how far east these wells are, on the fringe of the Bakken (see this post also):

I can never remember this stuff so I'm posting it again, from an earlier post, October 15, 2016:

Start with this: each hopper car carries 100 tons of fracking sand.

Some data points for newbies:

• the shale revolution began with fracking sand, maybe 500,000 pounds per well in one stage. BEXP broke new ground when they began routinely using 4 million lbs to frack a well. Since then, EOG has taken the lead. 
• EOG is using upwards of 30 million lbs of sand to frack a well in the Permian, others using similar amounts in the STACK.
• operators in the Bakken appear to be using about 8 million lbs as the standard, though there are outliers, mostly at 10 million lbs, but there are some Bakken wells fracked with as much as 20 million lbs (rare).
• there appears to be a movement away from ceramic (incredibly expensive)
• one rail hopper car can carry 100 tons of fracking sand.
• a unit train is generally 115 cars. Some are as long as 130 cars.
• it takes 4 - 5 18-wheelers to empty a single hopper car.
• 30 million lbs of sand (one Permian well) / 200,000 lbs (hopper car) = 150 hopper cars = 750 18-wheelers (5 trucks per rail car). 
• 4 million lbs of sand (one Bakken well) / 200,000 lbs (hopper car) = 20 hopper cars = 100 18-wheelers (5 trucks per rail car).

 I often make simple arithmetic errors. Let me know if I've made an error here.

So how many trucks of fracking sand for a well fracked with 20 million lbs?

• 4 million lbs = 100 18-wheelers
• 20 million lbs = 500 18-wheelers 

And that's why Job Service North Dakota is seeing an increase in job openings for those requiring a commercial driver's license (CDL).