Saturday, May 28, 2016

Saturday, May 28, 2016

Nothing about the Bakken. If you came here for the Bakken, scroll down or slide right to the sidebar.

Illinois budget standoff nears one-year mark. Illinois faces $7 billion in unpaid bills, nation's lowest credit rating, and little to show for lengthy negotiations. This is what will happen at the last minute in the dead of night: increased taxes on "millionaires," motorists, and soda. And property owners, raising real-estate taxes. A one-cent increase in the state sales tax. California solved all their problems back in 2008 with new taxes; Illinois will follow suit. Too bad the Dakota Access pipeline is't providing a bit of revenue for Illinois; blame it on Iowa.

Mitt Romney: a voice in the wilderness. Romney is on the same list where I put Colin.

UN rejects call to postpone Rio Olympics. The tea leaves suggest that Rio will delay the games one year -- they will blame Zika, but the games will be delayed due to security concerns and lack of facilities.

The JV team seizes territory near Turkish border. The story uses these words: "string of villages'; "rapid advances"; "tens of thousands"; "heavy fighting"; "hospital evacuation"; "within two miles"; "demonstrated Islamic State's ability to stage major offensives and capture new areas despite a string of recent losses in Syria and Iraq.

Verizon, unions reach labor pact.

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Cosmos Sapiens, John Hands

I continue to enjoy the book. I've completed it, but now it's rewarding to go back and re-read portions of it.  He begins the book with "I was born and raised a Catholic. I became an atheist. Now I'm agnostic."

His lament: science can't explain everything.

For example: with regard to the "Big Bang," the author says that everything that happened earlier than 10-43 second(s) after the "Big Bang" is "conjecture. Actually, he says that is true until about   10-10 second(s), but then after that, the theory appears to be "pretty good."

Had he written the book one year ago, he would have noted that gravitational waves had not been detected.

Had he written the book two years ago, he would have noted that the Higgs boson had not been detected.

Had he written the book seventy-five years ago, he would not have had an explanation for the radioactivity.

Had he written the book before 1650, he would not have Newton's Laws.

And so it goes. It's an incredibly good book to "bring" everything together in one book, in an easily understood writing style, but, wow, talk about pessimistic. I think I would end up severely depressed if I had to spend an evening with him over a pint of ale.

One could turn the book inside out, upside down, and re-write it to highlight how incredibly fast physics moved in the early 20th century.

What I get a kick out of is all the "coincidences" that had to occur to get from the Big Bang to Starbucks.

I love to read novels by Virginia Woolf -- her novels read like prose poems, but re-reading Richard Feynman is almost the same.

By the way, the current issue of New York Review of Books is particularly good this time around. There's a new book out there on the discovery of the DNA model. Of course, James Watson wrote the first book on the subject, and that has become the "gold standard" against which all new books on that subject are concerned. I have absolutely no interest in buying this new book but I have to admit that I hope to be able to thumb through it at Barnes and Noble sometime. The article: DNA: The Power of the Beautiful Experiment, H. Allen Orr. The book: Life’s Greatest Secret: The Race to Crack the Genetic Code by Matthew Cobb Basic Books, 2016, 434 pp., $29.99. From the linked article:
Matthew Cobb tells this story in his latest book, Life’s Greatest Secret. Cobb, a professor of zoology at the University of Manchester, is a working geneticist. He is also a student of the history of science who has written several previous books on the history of biology.
Life’s Greatest Secret is aimed at the general reader who may have only a passing familiarity with biology, much less with the detailed molecular mechanics of how DNA does what it does. The book serves as a useful primer for those interested in the brave new world of genetic intervention made possible by the rise of biotechnology.
But Cobb’s book will also be of interest to professional scientists as it recounts events in one of the most transformative periods in the history of science: the rise of a molecular understanding of life.
I would read it, not for the science of DNA, but for the author's history of the race to describe it. It would be interesting to see how it compares to how James Watson saw it. 

Saturday, May 28, 2016 -- Nothing About The Bakken

If you came here for the Bakken, scroll down or over to the sidebar at the right.

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The Camera Page

Canon has an incredible SLR offering: the SX410 IS. It's listed price has been $199 for quite some time, I suppose, but it is now being sold everywhere (including by Canon) for $179. I assume the drop in price suggests Canon is getting ready to phase out this model.

Some years ago I stumbled across an incredible buy at Target, the Canon SX510 HS. The model was being phased out. The one I bought was the "floor model" and was the last one available. I thought it was an incredible camera at an incredible price.

Now comes the SX410 IS at $179 -- even less than what I paid for the "510." My camera:
  • 12.1 megapixels
  • 30x optical zoom
The SX410 IS:
  • 20 megapixels
  • 40x optical zoom
The only other difference between the two cameras from what I can tell: my camera has "wi-fi." The "410" does not have "wi-fi" capability. As much as I use my camera, the internet, and Flickr, I have never, never used my camera's "wi-fi." I have always used the little SanDisk slot on the side of the MacBook Air.

It should be noted that Apple is moving to new thin laptops that do not include the SanDisk slot and that "wi-fi" capability may come in handy yet.

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Interesting Little Secret

For those few of us who refuse to give up our clam shell dumb phones but who still want all the features of an iPhone -- our younger daughter has come up with the solution: the iPod.

It's hard to find the iPod over at the Apple site. But it's there, and I think the iPod was updated last year (2015).

I assume there are some things I'm missing but it appears with the iPod and "wi-fi" one gets the iPhone without the voice phone. It's a very, very clever option. My hunch is that ATT, Verizon, Sprint, et al, have thought about this, also, as a concern. Obviously the number of folks that will carry about a clam hell dumb phone and an iPod is insignificant, but, wow, for those us who don't want the huge monthly cost of the iPhone, this is an interesting option.

At the Apple retail store in Southlake (Texas) -- and I assume everywhere -- Apple has a counter devoted to about six iPods paired wirelessly with Beats headphones. The elegance is incredible.

I see Beats has MLB editions of their headphones -- Atlanta Braves, or LA Dodgers, for example. Absolutely incredible marketing idea.

These were the ones we were looking at paired with matching iPod:

The one above is $300; the "identical" MLB version is an extra $30. I had never -- in a million years -- ever thought that I would ever consider a pair of Beats head phones, but they are tempting.

Buds are out; headphones are in.

Week 21: May 22, 2016 -- May 28, 2016

Operations
After tying a post-boom low of 25 active rigs early in the week, the number of active rigs in North Dakota recovered to 29 by the end of the week; WTI briefly went over $50/bbl; settled around $49/bbl

Bakken 101
Packers Plus on high-intensity wells in the Bakken
Lack of fracking water is still not -- never has been -- an issue in the Bakken

DUCs
Update, US plays

Pipelines
Dakota Access Pipeline keystoned in Iowa: predicted and predictable

Bakken economy
Williston Wire
  • moving into new high school
  • Williston's population grew by almost 10% in 2015 (the year of the bust)
  • North Dakota housing growth rate: highest in the US
  • steady birth rates in western North Dakota
Israelis testing drones in North Dakota
North Dakota's state mill and elevator doing just fine
Williston Wire
  • South Ridge Apartments open
  • Meg-A-Latte opens third location in Williston
  • Williston High School Superintendent says "goodbye" after seven years
  • Williston State College president says "goodbye" after seven years
US Senate approves funds for new Williston airport relocation project

Miscellaneous
Russia overtakes Saudi Arabia as China's leading supplies of crude oil
Saudi Aramco production/export numbers for 2015
No urgency for the Saudi Aramco IPO
OPEC: less relevant than ever; OPEC's death knell
Favorite global oil production graph updated
Four consecutive years of declining oil discoveries -- has never happened before
Takeaway capacity in western Canada may be inadequate
Memorial Day traffic could hit record this year
Trump: spoke on energy in Bismarck; North Dakota unpledged delegates put Trump over the top; celebrations break out worldwide;  no links; stories everywhere

Humor
The core of the Bakken as seen by Wall Street

Saudi Aramco Lifted 2015 Output To Record -- May 28, 2016; Saudi Aramco Increased Crude Oil Exports 2% Year-Over-Year

Rigzone/Bloomberg is reporting these data points:
  • produced at an all-time high last year (2015)
  • kept reserves unchanged; 261.1 billion bbls
  • "maintains an oil-production capacity of 12 million bopd"
  • produced 10.2 million, up from 9.5 million in 2014
  • a 7% increase; 700,000 bopd increase
  • the company will announce its restructuring plans within six months
  • will launch IPO by end of 2018
  • exported 2.6 billion bbls in 2015, up from 2.54 billion bopd in 2014 (2% increase)
  • exported 7.1 million bopd in 2015
  • exports to Asian markets increased "substantially"
    • India: jumped 18%
    • China: grew 4.5%
    • US: flat at 1 million bopd
    • Baltic: expanded, new markets; spot cargo to customers from storage facilities in Okinawa and Rotterdam
  • refining: 3.1 million bopd, unchanged from 2014; capacity was 5.4 million
  • seeks to double its refining capacity to 8 - 10 million bopd
When they say they increased exports to Asian markets "substantially," note that total global exports increased a paltry 2% year-over-year; it helps put "substantially" in context. 

EOG Reports Production From Five Completed DUCs -- May 28,2 016

Active rigs:


5/28/201605/28/201505/28/201405/28/201305/28/2012
Active Rigs2983189186216

Four new permits --
  • Operator: Crescent Point Energy
  • Field: Little Muddy (Williams)
  • Comments:
Five producing wells completed:
  • 31546, 458, EOG, Austin 59-1509H, Mountrail, ICO, t4/16; cum --
  • 31826, 707, EOG, Austin 454-1510H, Mountrail, 2 sections, t4/16; cum --
  • 31827, 693, EOG, Austin 455-1510H, Mountrail, 2 sections, t4/16; cum --
  • 31828, 563, EOG, Austin 463-1509H, Mountrail,  ICO, t4/16; cum --
  • 32121, 901, EOG, Austin 437-2635H, Mountrail,  ICO, t5/16; cum --