Friday, May 27, 2016

DUCs -- Update -- Graphic -- May 27, 2016; Gasoline Demand Updated

Updates

June 12, 2016: Bloomberg has an update on DUCs, but I don't think the article adds much to the discussion ... yet. There is a graph, where are the DUCs?
  • Permian Basin: about 1,200
  • Eagle Ford: about 900
  • Bakken: about 800
  • Niobrara: about 600
  • Rest of US shale: about 200 in all
It would be nice to see some denominators with these numbers. I haven't seen much movement in completing DUCs yet.

May 28, 2016: see first comment --
The cost to drill and frac a well in the Niobrara now ranges from $2.1 to $2.5 million.
They are implementing a process termed 'monobore' which, if circumstances allow, should spread to the shallower Permian formations and elsewhere.
The output from Niobrara wells is substantially lower than the Bakken's costs, but - at two and half million a pop - quite a low cost operation. 
Original Post
 
An Oil & Gas Journal DUC graphic. Five North Dakota counties are represented, from top to bottom (most to least): McKenzie, Mountrail, Dunn, Williams, and Divide.


The graphic is a bit confusing. I thought it was the number of DUCs, but the heading suggests it is the cost of well completion (CWC) per bbl of oil by county. I could be wrong. This will take you to the linked story.

From that link, explaining the graph above:
The heart of the Denver-Julesburg (DJ) basin exhibits the most commercial drilled but uncompleted (DUC) backlog, said a Rystad Energy study that estimated the DUC inventory in Weld County, Colo., was economic to complete at an average light, sweet crude oil futures price of $30/bbl.
Other counties that exhibit favorable economics are Reeves County, Tex., in the Permian basin’s Delaware and McKenzie County, ND, in the Bakken formation, said Artem Abramov, Rystad senior analyst in Oslo. He believes much of the US shale DUC inventory is commercial given current oil prices.
“Significant support to the US Lower 48 oil supply can be expected in the near months as market sentiment gradually moves in a positive direction,” Abramov told OGJ.
Weld County topped Rystad’s DUC ranking list by inventory size with almost 600 oil wells awaiting completion crews.
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Gasoline Demand

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