Construction Of Single-Family Housing At Eight-Year High: Low Interest Rates, Nice Temperatures (Global Warming, No Doubt) -- December 16, 2015

From the Chicago Tribune:

A big jump in apartment construction in the Midwest and South boosted the pace of homebuilding in November, marking a solid bounce back after tumbling in October. Construction of single-family houses also increased and reached an eight-year high.

The Commerce Department said Wednesday that total housing starts — both houses and apartments— climbed 10.5 last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.17 million homes. The increase reversed much of drop in stars during October.

There has been a sharp growth in homebuilding, with starts having increased 11 percent so far this year. Solid hiring over the past two years and relatively low interest rates have buoyed the real estate market, encouraging more people to upgrade to two new houses and sign rental leases.

So, new housing starts at an 8-year high, and automobile sales will hit an all-time record this year.

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Fed Rates Raised

FinanceYahoo!is reporting:

The U.S. central bank's policy-setting committee raised the range of its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to between 0.25 percent and 0.50 percent, ending a lengthy debate about whether the economy was strong enough to withstand higher borrowing costs.

Really? "... whether the economy was strong enough to withstand higher borrowing costs...." 0.5%. Really.

One and done.

Random Update On The Whiting Flatland Federal Wells -- December 16, 2015

I am often accused of cherry-picking great wells to "prove" how great the Bakken is. Here I go again. I track these three wells here.

We all know these three wells are great but look at the recent production profiles:

27520, t10/14; cum 550K 6/16;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2015	15	17543	17474	3327	39958	31505	8415
BAKKEN	10-2015	11	9555	9533	6722	30885	22935	7908
BAKKEN	9-2015	11	12391	13521	2691	30454	30375	0
BAKKEN	8-2015	5	7877	6370	1733	13217	13134	33
BAKKEN	7-2015	0	0	184	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2015	28	21677	21968	1440	57929	57690	190
BAKKEN	5-2015	27	28754	29152	3567	130024	129332	640
BAKKEN	4-2015	30	36976	37084	4012	146518	145911	547
BAKKEN	3-2015	31	46708	46286	4808	181103	180141	900
BAKKEN	2-2015	28	46881	47420	4187	146103	143797	2250

27521, t10/14; cum 386K 6/16;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2015	15	6407	6569	2606	19026	15001	4007
BAKKEN	10-2015	14	7968	7859	4897	23550	17488	6030
BAKKEN	9-2015	11	7346	7522	1921	25719	25653	0
BAKKEN	8-2015	3	2090	2192	1491	5649	5613	14
BAKKEN	7-2015	22	11590	11171	1543	43230	43125	63
BAKKEN	6-2015	16	9802	9949	699	24690	24580	81
BAKKEN	5-2015	27	13899	14139	1702	54099	53781	266
BAKKEN	4-2015	30	19908	20005	2296	74605	74267	278
BAKKEN	3-2015	31	26998	26811	3157	100230	99670	498

 
27522, t10/14; cum 367K 6/16;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2015	16	11513	11539	5552	31520	26033	5457
BAKKEN	10-2015	17	4874	4745	1721	10419	10393	0
BAKKEN	9-2015	7	3907	4296	1275	16310	16298	0
BAKKEN	8-2015	7	7268	7563	549	16132	16043	76
BAKKEN	7-2015	23	12388	11988	2175	50965	50803	118
BAKKEN	6-2015	21	11170	10888	879	26641	24436	2168
BAKKEN	5-2015	27	14749	14978	2209	75326	74877	397
BAKKEN	4-2015	30	20039	20889	3286	99058	98998	0
BAKKEN	3-2015	31	26002	25795	3936	105743	105681	0
BAKKEN	2-2015	28	30709	30975	4245	99837	98664	1117

Random Look At HRC Eagle Nest Well -- December 16, 2015 -- 10,000 Bbls Produced Over 4 Days

There are five wells on this pad, all running to the north:

• 28280, see below;
• 28281, conf, huge well, started producing 6/15;
• 25502, 3,161, t6/15; cum 117K 10/15; produced 41K in the month of July, 2015
• 24417, 2,174, t6/15; cum 74K 10/15;
• 24418, 2,054, t6/15; cum 75K 10/15;

There are five wells to the east in the same section (a 3-well pad, and two singletons):

• 30267, loc, one has to assume this one was not completed at same time as the others due to price environment
• 30268, conf, huge well,
• 30269, conf, huge well;
• 18094, 1,323, t2/10; cum 246K 10/15 (was off-line 5/15 - 7/15)
• 21066, 1,347, t1/12; cum 220K 10/15 (was off-line 6/15 - 8/15)

This well came off confidential list today:

• 28280, 2,616, HRC, Fort Berthold 148-94-17C-8-6H, Eagle Nest, Sherman pad, 54 stages, 4.5 million lbs, t6/15; cum 86K 10/15; 

Side tracks:

• 12/24/14: shale strike at 14,921 feet; tripped out and then side tracked started at 14,131 to 14,139 feet.
• 12/25/14: attempt to side track failed; tripped out and began other side track at 13,760 to 13,789 feet.
• 12/27/14: second side track attempt failed; tripped out and began another side track at 13,068 to 13,112 feet.
• 12/31/14: successful third side track from 13,112 until experiencing another shale strike at 17,390 feet; tripped out and began a side track at 16,390 to 16,430 feet.
• 12/20/15: after another side track fail at 15,652, operator tripped out and side tracked once more beginning at 15,712 feet and drilled to TD, 20,703 feet.

Production profile (note 10,409 bbls over four days in September, 2015):

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2015	23	11968	11796	8475	10090	9574	355
BAKKEN	9-2015	4	10409	10372	7236	9680	7955	1697
BAKKEN	8-2015	14	9924	10222	9497	10796	5388	5310
BAKKEN	7-2015	31	33475	34129	39179	51853	0	51636
BAKKEN	6-2015	15	20342	19152	29535	26192	0	26087

Wednesday, December 16, 2015; US Likely To Repeal Ban On Crude Oil Imports; Fed Raises Rates (One And Done)

Updates

Later, 4:07 p.m. Central Time: WSJ has article on repeal of the ban on crude oil imports. 

Original Post

Active rigs:

	12/16/2015	12/16/2014	12/16/2013	12/16/2012	12/16/2011
Active Rigs	64	184	191	181	199

RBN Energy: Last in a series on the Permian Basin buildout.

No links, the story is everywhere. It looks like the US will allow crude oil to be exported. Time to close the poll at the sidebar in which we asked, whether President Obama will allow the US to export oil starting in 2016?

• yes: 12%
• no: 45%
• yes, with lots of conditions, including credits for solar/wind: 44%

Magnum Hunter files for bankruptcy protection. CNBC story here. The history of Magnum Hunter from my "Bakken Operators" page:

Magnum Hunter Resources (MHR) 
(Bakken Hunter is the subsidiary working the Bakken)

• December 16, 2015: files for bankruptcy protection. 
• September 27, 2014: looking to leave North Dakota; SeekingAlpha, Richard Zeits
• June 3, 2014: 97,000 net acres in North Dakota; Bakken acreage big in Canada, MT
• August, 2013: 377 net drilling locations in the North Dakota Bakken; 
• Will align its wells with existing ONEOK natural gas pipelines; March 2013
• November 25, 2012: to buy 20,000 net acres and production from Samson Resources for $30 million in cash; Divide County, along Canadian border
• 132,000 acres in the Bakken/Tableland; the Tableland is in Saskatchewan (Canada)
• Baytex sells 50,400 net acres of ND Bakken acreage to Magnum Hunter; 950 boepd; $311 million cash; -- 128,400 net acres? total?
• 78,000 net acres (Dunn, McKenzie, SE Saskatchewan); prior to the Baytex deal
• To acquire about 7,750 net acres; announced August, 2011
• 4Q12, estimate exit rate: >16,000 bopd
• 4Q11: 12,000 bopd exit rate
• 3Q11: 5,270 bopd 
• 2011 revenues: $50 million

Reuters/Rigzone reports:

Oil and gas producer Magnum Hunter Resources Corp and its affiliates filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Tuesday to carry out a debt-cutting plan as a prolonged slump in oil prices has depleted the company's cash.

The company entered into a restructuring agreement that will convert its funded debt into equity, substantially reducing its more than $1 billion in debt, according to a company statement. Magnum Hunter ranks among the biggest energy producers to file for bankruptcy this year, joining Samson Resources Corp, Sabine Oil & Gas Corp, Quicksilver Resources Inc and Energy & Exploration Partners Inc.

To fund its operations during its bankruptcy, the company's lenders agreed to provide up to $200 million in financing, which will also convert into equity when Magnum Hunter emerges from bankruptcy, according to the statement. Magnum Hunter, which operates primarily in the Appalachian Basin in West Virginia and Ohio, said it expects to emerge from bankruptcy in April.

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Late Night Talk-Shows

My sentiments exactly.  My favorite: James Cordon. Can watch him on YouTube.

Kennedy Clan Making Plans For Colorado Skiing? -- December 15, 2015; Denver Snowfall Shatters Record -- All The Way Back To 1893

CBS Denver is reporting: Biggest Storm This Season Breaks Daily Snowfall Record In Denver

As of 5 p.m. the official measurement since midnight at Denver International Airport was 7.7″.

That is both the biggest one day snowfall so far this season and a new record for December 15.

The previous daily record for December 15 was 2.8″ set in 1897.

Today: almost 8 inches. Previous record, all the way back to 1897 was less than 3". And to think the Kennedy clan thought their children / grandchildren would never see snow again.

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The Ledecky Page

The video of the post-race interview with Katie after the Ledecky 1,000-yard freestyle under 9:00 minutes was just posted on YouTube. Here is the video of the race itself.


Ledecky now owns the 500, 1000, 1650-yard freestyle American record trifecta as well as the 400, 800, 1500-meter free World record triple.

500y free	4:26.58	2015
1000y free	8:59.65	2015
1650y free	15:13.30	2014
400m free	3:58.37	2014
800m free	8:07.39	2015
1500m free	15:25.48	2015

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CNN GOP Debate Poll Over At Drudge

This is a dynamic link. Trump is at 50% and Cruz is at 25%. But this is what surprises me: the near front-runner with Donald Trump some weeks ago was Ben Carson. Tonight the Drudge polling puts him at 1.5%. Jeb! -- pert-near tied with Carson at 1.8% (and that's rounding up). There was talk earlier today that Rand Paul was thinking of getting out of the race. If he does, one wonders where his supporters would go. My hunch: most to Cruz. I can't imagine any Cruz supporter going anyplace other the current two front-runners.