Natural Gas Breaks Below $2.00 (Again) -- April 14, 2023

Locator: 44388C.

Rate hike? What rate hike? Folks starting to talk about another round of QE. Link here to The [Londoon] Telegraph.

If you thought that zero rates and quantitative easing were a bad dream that we can all forget, you may be in for a surprise. It is again becoming clear that deflation remains the overarching structural threat to the world economy.

A few brave analysts are already starting to flag a return to emergency QE as soon as next year, convinced that the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have over-tightened and set in motion a deepening credit crunch.

Fed minutes published on Wednesday night reveal that the Fed’s own staff think that contagion from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank has all but guaranteed a recession starting later this year.

This will smother any lingering pockets of overheating and lead to an output gap in the US economy by early next year, accompanied by plummeting inflation.

The larger point is that traumatic events of the last three years have not led to lasting inflation after all, let alone a replay of the Great Inflation in the 1970s. 

Agree completely with that "larger point." As regular readers know, I was never all that concerned with "inflation." Be that as it may, more and more talk of a pause, one more rate hike, and then a rate cut as early as this year. Although a rate hike and a rate cut occurring so close together seems incredibly unlikely. So, either no more rate hikes this year, and / or one last  25-bp rate hike this year followed by a 25-bp rate cut in 1Q24. Election year. 

Natural gas: the Netherlands. Link here. See this post from 2018.

Bank earnings fears? JPMorgan did not get the memo. Wow, I get tired of all the hand-wringing.

BUD: is this story already over? Pre-market suggests market will open lower; BUD will surge 1.5%.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 43.

Peter Zeihan newsletter.

WTI: $82.52.

Natural gas: $1.983.

Monday, April 17, 2023 -- taxes due: 31 for the month; 31 for the quarter, 286 for the year
38866, conf, Liberty Resources, CA S 158-93-21-23-3MBHX,

Sunday, April 16, 2023: 30 for the month; 30 for the quarter, 285 for the year
38638, conf,  Whiting, Braaaflat 11-11-3H,
38372, conf, Oasis, Rey Federal 5201 32-11 3B,

Saturday, April 15, 2023: 28 for the month; 28 for the quarter, 283 for the year
None.

Friday, April 14, 2023: 28 for the month; 28 for the quarter, 283 for the year
38560, conf, Hess, GO-HAUG-156-98-3031H-5,
38559, conf, Hess, GO-HAUG-156-98-1918H-5, 

RBN Energy: Energy Transfer steps up its Permian game with Lotus Midstream deal, part 5. 

It’s not just the upstream side of the Permian that’s in the midst of a major consolidation. Over the past couple of years, a slew of significant M&A deals have been made in the midstream space, most recently Energy Transfer’s $1.45 billion plan to acquire Lotus Midstream. Backed by private equity, Lotus has assembled an impressive array of crude-oil gathering, storage and long-haul pipeline assets in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico — including the Centurion pipeline system that links the Permian with the crude oil hub in Cushing, OK. In today's RBN blog, we discuss the deal and what it means for Energy Transfer, whose role in the U.S.’s most prolific crude-oil-focused production area is poised to expand by leaps and bounds.

OXY: Vicki Hollub said earlier this week that Permian production has not yet peaked.