Twenty Permits Renewed -- WSJ Schooled / Played — Can’t Wait To See How The WSJ Reports This Tomorrow — Twitter Already On Top Of This Story — November 21, 2022

Peter Zeihan, on Nord Stream: 

Saudi oil production increase: [later — turns out WSJ article was a “hoax.” More tomorrow. Heading to bed. LOL. Saudi first.]

• link here to The WSJ -- for the archives; I have no interest in the article
• does anyone really know what the increase will be?
• the article says 500,000 bopd for all of OPEC -- and it's just talk
• on the agenda for the December 4, 2022, meeting
• last month it was a cut of 2 million bopd
• so, the numbers are all background noise
• with regard to sovereign immunity for MBS, The WSJ has it exactly right
• in general, "we" don't "target" heads of state
• Libya's Gaddafi was a one-off, and that issue was much, much different, and even so, many European nations did not support US action at that time;
  
• we don't need rogue nations suing / targeting US presidents
  
• bottom line: this entire story is much ado about nothing to coin a phrase

OPEC production, historical, most recent data:

• 500,000 / 30 million = 1.7%
• one year:

• three years:
  

US refining capacity: this will be a fascinating story to watch over the next three decades; is the US ceding refining capacity to China? Looking thirty years out; link to Robert Rapier via oilprice.

• The U.S. energy policy is clear about its intention to phase out fossil fuels.
• This has forced refiners to exercise caution in order to stay afloat. 
• It has also resulted in a loss of U.S. refining capacity. 

According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), at the beginning of the pandemic U.S. refiners had 19.0 million barrels per day (BPD) of operable refining capacity. This was the highest number ever reported by the EIA.

By December 2021, that number had fallen to 17.9 million BPD — a loss of 1.1 million BPD of capacity in less than two years.

1.1 / 19 = 5.6%.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 37.

WTI: $79.73.

Natural gas: $6.701.

No new permits.

Twenty permits renewed:

• BR (15): four Concord permits in Dunn County; one Fritz Falls permit and one Harry Dunne permit, both in Dunn County; six Tilton permits, all in Dunn County; a Lloyd Christmas permit, a Scottvale permit, and a Rifle Person permit, all in Dunn County.
• Hess (3): three AN-Lone Tree permits in McKenzie County;
• Liberty Resources (2): a Christine permit and an LTM permit, both in Mountrail County;