Sunday, November 13, 2022

Things We Will Be Talking About This Week -- November 13, 2022

Gasoline: in north Texas, Murphy Oil, down to $2.89 / gallon. My wife is thrilled.

  • average in Los Angeles County, CA: $5.51 / gallon

WTI: Sunday night futures open up slightly but now trading over $89.

  • up 23 cents; up 0.26%; trading at $89.19

Personal note:

  • one of the better things for me about the blog: it gets me excited about the future of Texas and the future of the US (and oil and investing)
  • best example in the past six hours: Texas relocation and Alliance

The story of the week: crypto. And this story has legs. This is a "run on the banks" without FDIC insurance. There are three components:

  • crypto before the FTX crash;
  • the FTX crash; and,
  • crypto after the FTX crash.
  • books will be written about the FTX crash, but the bigger story will be the week that follows. This week, November 14, 2022 -- November 18, 2022. 
  • I haven't watched CNBC in months, maybe close to a year without watching CNBC, but I am really interested to see how the four panelists on Melissa's "Fast Money" show will spin this story. 
    • A year ago, their banter on crypto covered the continuum, but, in general, they were cautiously bullish on crypto. Those panelists probably "made it safe" for a lot of naive small mom-and-pop retail investors to get into crypto.

Twitter: this will also be the week that Twitter turns the corner. In a good way.

Ukraine.

Oil: now that the world's two biggest producers have made their policies clear:

  • US: "no more drilling"
  • OPEC: "Saudi first"
  • speaking of which: what's the status of "NOPEC"?

Oil:

  • they say shale production is peaking;
  • SPR releases have to come to an end, sooner or later;
  • "Saudi first"
  • "no more drilling"
  • Iran could still target Saudi oil infrastructure
  • China opens up, sooner or later;
  • world population hits 8 billion people on November 15, 2022
  • Russian sanctions become much more severe December 5, 2022
    • even without sanctions, Russia
    • has lost huge manpower base 
    • has lost all (?) western oil field services 
    • has lost all (?) western technology for drilling
    • reminder: Russia didn't even have the expertise to repair one Nord Stream turbine

COP27: the 1.5°C climate target is dead.

The Dallas Cowboys.

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