Here We Go -- October 7, 2022

With regard to Russia using tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine I suggested folks might want to follow a few data points to predict when/if that will happen. One of those "things" I suggested folks follow was the distribution of iodine tablets to the Ukraine soldiers. From Common Sense with Bari Weiss this morning:

Two alarming data points: Government officials in Kyiv are reportedly distributing potassium iodine pills in the possible event of a Russian nuclear strike. And last night, at a Democratic fundraiser, President Biden said: “We have not faced the prospect of Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban missile crisis.” 

Facing Armageddon in Ukraine, and picking a fight with Saudi Arabia (one he won't win), Biden has really stepped in it. 

WTI: has been rising all night. Now, solidly over $89. Up 1.11%; up almost a dollar; now trading at $89.43.

CVX: up a bunch yesterday; flat so far in pre-market trading.

Nobel Peace Prize: 

The Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to the human rights advocate Ales Bialiatski of Belarus and two groups, Memorial, a Russian human rights organization, and the Center for Civil Liberties, a Ukrainian organization.

Saudi Arabia: in case you missed it. Link here. It should be noted that imported Saudi oil goes to California, now paying over $8/gallon for gasoline. Tea leaves: if Biden bans US oil exports, OPEC+ bans exports to the US. California may want to move its 2035 energy plan to 2023. 

Off-shore drilling ban: yes, the Biden administration is one step closer. Pretty soon we can start calling Biden, "Merkel." Though he's becoming a huge friend of the Bakken. WTI:  $89.33. Looking for $90 today.

US auto manufacturers: are going to get absolutely crushed during the transition to EVs. Absolutely crushed. Ford has "no choice" but to raise F-150 Lightning prices again" -- analyst. Still cheap at $52,000 for the base Pro model. And then all those tax credits and other incentives. 

US auto manufacturers: are going to get absolutely crushed during the transition to EVs. Absolutely crushed. Link here.

US auto manufacturers: I drive pass one of the biggest Chevrolet dealers in the US everyday. The lot is about one-fourth full of pick-ups and a smattering of EV Bolts (or Volts or whatever Chevy EVs are called now -- "Revolts"?). And I never see any change -- it appears the dealership is receiving very few new vehicles to sell, and despite the shortage, they're not flying off the lot (in sales). Meanwhile, the Honda dealership looks like it's recovering nicely. Not sure. Need to check. They know me there. I'm looking to upgrade to a 2023 Honda Civic. Or a 2024 if I can hold out for one more year.

US auto manufacturers: but somehow, Ford will show great 3Q22 results.

OXY:

• clickbait, link here.

• not clickbait, link here.

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Family Notes

This is pretty funny. Sophia is participating in three after-school activities at a very high level of training: gymnastics, dance (ballet) and Brazilian jiu-jitsu.

She had a fourth -- swimming -- but that stopped during the Covid lockdowns. The good news: she's an excellent swimmer and may take up "swim team" in middle school.

Gymnastics had/has always been her favorite activity. Then she was signed up for ballet and martial arts. 

Without hesitation, she says jiu-jitsu is her absolute favorite. Wow, talk about her competitive spirit. She was selected earlier this week to fight in the end-of-practice select match -- two top performers face off for the match of the day. I believe she might have lost, but it was officially declared a draw, I guess. It was a bit confusing due to all the excitement from the other athletes watching. 

Whatever.

So, earlier this week, she was a few minutes late to her weekly gymnastics course -- not her fault, not my fault. The mom that drove her there was delayed by work. 

Sophia missed but a few minutes and I considered it a full work-out.

Because Sophia missed roll call, she was signed up for a make-up session later today. LOL. Sophia is so excited to get an extra gymnastics session. We're thinking of showing up five minutes late every Wednesday just to get that free make-up session.

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Family Covid

This is pretty cool. 

About a year ago, The NYT ran a competition for children to submit entries for an upcoming book about the impact Covid had on them.

The book is now "out" and we have a copy.

Sophia's father got hit by Covid pretty bad. I honestly don't recall whether he was vaccinated at the time or not. I assume he was but perhaps not. [He is "fully" vaccinated now -- just received his most recent booster two days ago in anticipation of an overseas business trip.]

His respiratory symptoms were significant but he did not require hospitalization. However, his neurological symptoms were downright scary. He lost feeling and strength in his extremities and noted mild-to-moderate cognitive symptoms. There were questions whether he would get back to normal. Ever. It took about six months, but as far as I know he's pretty much back to normal.

No one else in the family has had Covid to the best of our knowledge, and they've all been tested multiple times.

Olivia took the photo and submitted that article that was published by the NYT.