Ukraine And Keystoning America -- June 24, 2022

July: 

• several months ago I wrote that the sh*t will hit the fan in July (2022)
• looks like we will see another war in Europe soon
• it won't be a shooting war; it will be a "civil war" among EU nations fighting for their share of natural gas as the EU begins to ration natural gas; first fight -- between Germany and Italy.
• twitter feed suggests that Russia will not only win Ukraine but will win big
• Russian ruble is the best-performing currency of 2022 despite sanctions, links everywhere, here is one;
• Russia shipping more petroleum / products than before the sanctions; at least that's the sentiment when surfing through the twitter energy feed
• initially, to regions like Far East Asia and India,
• but now to Europe, also, as the EU becomes desperate
• sanctions sounded great when plenty of natural gas and warm weather (summer) was approaching,
• but now, EU running on empty and anticipating a cold winter
• bottom line: Putin had this figured out from the beginning; took bigger losses than expected but persevered; note: no nuclear talk for quite some time -- which means he knows he's winning
• next: gradual return of photo ops with Putin
• will Biden throw Zelenskyy under the bus to save the midterms? Probably too late but there are reports that US has slowed down weapon delivery to the Ukraine; no idea whether that's accurate
• by the way, is this a coincidence …. reports that Biden was sending more weapons to the Ukraine ended less than 24 hours after Putin threatened to go nuclear? Who blinked first? Yeah, the guy who has trouble riding a bike. Not the guy who has photos of himself riding bears or whatever he rides.

EIA not releasing weekly petroleum report:

• agency confirms it was not hacked;
• which, I guess, means they did it themselves -- whatever they did -- inept or intentional
• I assume the latter
• the agency says it will provide update on Monday, June 27, 2022; an "update" suggests this delay is not temporary; we may not see reports for awhile? 
• CDC Covid vaccine reports have changed from daily to weekly -- but no one cares;
• might the EIA suggest monthly reports rather than weekly reports to even out the volatility?
• why would the administration facing $6-gasoline purposely delay the report?
• only two reasons I can think of:
• one, the report shows that US refiners are operating at max capacity; which, if true, completely undermines President Biden / SecEnergy Granholm's assertions that refiners are holding back;
• there are now reports that mandates for biofuels have significantly slowed US refiners from providing gasoline / diesel; 
• remember: 60 refineries (?) requested biofuel waivers; not one waiver was granted by US government;
• did biofuel / refinery mandate keystone American gasoline and diesel supplies?
• California regulators now charge PSX that converting conventional refinery to renewable refinery was illegal; link here; and, here, as an exclusive.
• two, the reports suggest that inventories are worse than expected, which would have pushed oil higher just before July 4th weekend
• analysts are suggesting July 4th weekend will see biggest travel day ever

Ms Granholm agrees: US refiners are operating at max capacity; most recent meeting, SecEnergy did not criticize / make claims / accuse oil executives of profiteering; link here;

Biofuels: it appears -- more and more as the data comes out and journalists are finally asking the right questions -- that the government's heavy handedness (or boots on their necks) toward refineries and biofuel mandates keystoned American production of "conventional" gasoline and diesel.

$6-gasoline: more and more this appears to have been intentionally engineered or the result of incredible ineptness by the Department of Energy. My hunch: it was the former but the department had no clue how bad it would get. Worse: the administration has no plans to change course. No matter how expensive it gets, this administration will stay the course on green energy transition. Link here: apples or oranges. 

An aside: White House press secretary -- Peter Principle in full view.

Liz Cheney: not quite accurate, but not too far from the truth -- Cheney will run as a "democrat" to win the primary. My suggestion: more should do that, especially in blue states like California, New York, and Minnesota.