Quite A Day -- And It's Not Quite Over -- January 27, 2022

NY:

• anticipating winter storm this weekend;
• but severe cold could persist in to mid-February; link here;
  

Subsidies for fossil fuel:

• add Denmark to list of countries providing subsidies for households using natural gas; link here; previously posted; 
• ignores UN climate agreement(s), COP26 from just a few months ago;
  

GS:

• forecast, link here:
• WTI will rise 16% to $101 / bbl and Brent by 17% to $105 / bbl by year-end 2023
• S&P 500 companies in the Energy sector will post 2022 earnings growth of 84% followed by 2023 growth of 22% compared with consensus bottom-up estimates of 37% growth this year followed by a 4% decline in 2023
• Brent hits $90 / bbl for first time since 2014; link here;
  

US shale: Bloomberg catching on;

• for first time in a decade, US shale producers are in the free cash flow sweet spot;
• oil at $79: producers can return $50 billion in cash to investors and lift output by 2 million bopd
• that's equivalent to the entire ANNUAL production of Nigeria and Venezuela combined;
• or they could return $75 billion and grow daily output by just 500,000 bbls
  

Bakken: just a bit more valuable; link here, or go direct to WP paywall;

• a federal judge just invalidated the oil and gas leases that the Biden administration auctioned off in the largest offshore lease sale in US history in the GoM last year;
• 1.7 million acres of leases vacated; XOM, CVX, others
• $192 million in leases; link here;
  

Ukraine:

• Biden phones Ukraine president: "brace for invasion"; link here;
• Russians just moved 100,000 troops to the Ukraine border including tons of armor; incredible video at link, especially if you like armored vehicles;
• General Patton would have been impressed;
• Bloomberg: invasion may be imminent; link here;

Natural gas: link here; as contracts expire;

• greatest one day gain in natural gas in history; up almost 50% in one day;
• US can't source natural gas that would be required for Europe if sanctions on Russia follow incursion; 
• futures hit $7.346, the highest intraday price since November, 2008, before falling back to $6.265;
• move signaled a short squeeze ahead of the contract's expiration; link here;
  

IPO debacle:

• Robinhood: perhaps the greatest post-IPO disaster ever seen in 25 years; link here;
• $5,000 investment at the top back in August, 2021, now worth $600

*************************************
A Musical Interlude

She Thinks I Still Care, Teddy Thompson