For The Archives -- From The Perspective Of Oil Bulls -- January 27, 2022

I have an incredibly good twitter account that works for me. Except for a few wayward tweets, those I follow seem to understand "oil," renewable energy, and global warming quite well. I follow no one on twitter whose primary interest is investing. 

To keep me grounded, the sidebar at the right of all twitter accounts includes "trending." Very, very valuable. 

The Dow was up an incredible 600 points before it went negative, down at least 100 points when I last looked.

During that transition, these were the items from my twitter account. I'll try to group them to keep some kind of order.

The Biden Boom: trending. 

• none of my readers are going to like this one;
• I can already hear the "but ... but ... but ... but ... but"
• facts don't matter; the narrative matters, and I haven't seen Mitch McConnell's narrative in several years;

GDP: from the above thread, this link:

• GDP growth under Biden more than 3 times each of the last 3 GOP presidents;
• job growth under Bend 3 times last 3 GOP presidents combined;
• 40 million of the 42 million jobs created since 1989, 95% have come under Democrat presidents
• repeating:
• I can already hear the "but ... but ... but ... but ... but"
• facts don't matter; the narrative matters, and I haven't seen Mitch McConnell's narrative in several years;

Canada:

• at over 70 km long, Canada's convoy shatters the prior world record for longest truck convoy ever recorder. Link here.

US Russian crude oil imports:

• oil imports from Russian reached a record high during Biden's first year. Link here.
• US oil imports from Russia have gone from "zero" in 1990 to 800,000 bopd (2008) to 200,000 bopd in 2019, back to a record 850,000 bopd in his first year as president

New England ISO:

• LNG tanker from Trinidad/Tobago just arrived Boston;
• that natural gas costing 3x from Marcellus, PA, natural gas; link here.
• great graphic at the link

US energy:

• link here;
• diesel demand ended 2021 above pre-pandemic levels;
• gasoline demand ended year at pre-pandemic levels;
• jet fuel at 80% of pre-pandemic levels;
• impact of Covid variant on oil demand is waning (so if gas demand is plummeting it must be demand destruction)
• weekly US days of supply of crude oil has crept up slightly, week-over-week; link here;
• demand destruction?
• US gas flaring hits record low; link here;
  

Goodbye to global warming COP26 initiatives:

• Swedish government has asked parliament to approve a cut in gasoline and diesel taxes; link here;
• Japan implements subsidy to mitigate oil price rise; link to Argus Media;

Renewable energy:

• link here;
• not going so well for Saudi Aramco;

Fed rate hike:

• since 1972, every rate hike cycle has resulted in commodities returning 19% and outpacing the S&P 500 by 900 basis points; link here;

Covid silliness:

• people are up to two times as likely to have an accurate positive Covid-19 test result if they test in the middle of the day compared to at night; Vanderbilt research shows;

Middle East myth of spare capacity:

• active drilling rigs in the Middle East still significantly below 2019 levels (despite high crude oil prices); link here;
• supply response has been poor so far and setting up for a very bullish spring as demand picks up considerably, further draining already-low inventories; great graphic at the link;

Oilman's cartoon: link here.

Chart of the day:

• CVX; link here;
• hits an all-time high; previous peak set 8 years ago;
• a larger-than-expected hike in the quarterly dividend;
• current market cap is $262 billion -- that's $115 billion more than NextEra Energy

US big oil vs European big oil over last twelve months, investing:

• link here:
• XOM: +76%
• CVX: +63%

• RDS: +50%
• TTE: +54%
• BP: +42%

Meanwhile, OXY, oh-oh:

• link here; great graphic at the link;
• in less than a year, OXY has gone from being the top Permian producer, down to 7th spot in terms of daily oil production;
• production down 36% in 18 months even with OXY currently running 15 active rigs

Meanwhile, ION Geophysical is preparing for a bankruptcy filing, link here;

• stunning;
• oil at 7-year highs
• stock currently down 39% on the day and 75% down in the past year
• stock selection matters;

EV silliness: link here;

• the US refuses to fall in love with EV .. and that's the problem;