Another Incredibly Exciting Day -- And We're Just Getting Started -- September 21, 2021

Firster things firster:

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

First things first: monthly Legacy Fund deposits should be reported this week. Link here.

The Fed: no rate hikes until late 2022, though tapering may begin soon. CNBC.

Huge disconnects: reporting vs reality vs what each individual is seeing

• in energy;
• in Covid;
• in China;
• in DC.

And when there are disconnects like this, one will see gaslighting: link here.

Energy: most important tweet all day, link here. And what he was tweeting about.

So, crude oil demand increases in the out-years while more and more oil companies are stepping back. Most recent example: Shell. It makes it very, very easy for investors interested in fossil fuel.

Covid-19: Americans may not want the vaccine, but, wow, the rest of the world still does. 

Ivermectin: ranchers running into shortages.

China: it appears folks have forgotten, or never knew, that Xi is an ardent Mao follower. Most of us thought Mao's policies were dead.

Front page story over at The Wall Street Journal is a must read. What's really cool? One could easily substitute Joe Biden for Xi Jinping and one could easily substitute the US Democrat party for Chinese Party and the article would require almost no other editing. It would read the same. Try it. It works every time. 

In fact, it appears we've been mispronouncing Xi Jinping's name all this time --> Ji Binding --> Joe Biden. Remember, it took awhile for Americans to realize we had been mispronouncing Peking all those decades. Peking --> Be-King --> Beijing.

Investing:

• for those folks who took advantage of yesterday's sell-off, it looks like we ... and "we" is the correct pronoun .... we have another opportunity today.
• what an incredible opportunity
• this is not investment site, so I don't post what I buy and sell but here's a hint regarding yesterday:
• OKE is in the natural gas business
• natural gas seems to be the energy story for 2021
• OKE sold off yesterday, along with the rest of the energy sector
• closed down 4% yesterday; closed down $2.18/share; pre-market today, up 1.6%; up 85 cents.
• still trading near its 52-week high 
  
• OKE: pays over 7% at yesterday's price
  

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

CNBC: pre-market futures suggest "the markets are bouncing back, but not enough to recover from yesterday." In other words, as noted above, "we have another opportunity today."

Back to Energy:

• Enbridge ready to open Line 3.
• it appears OPEC happy with where things are
• this is only Tuesday; EIA data is released tomorrow; can hardly wait

Buzz: the high price of natural gas in Europe and the UK could "drag" the price of crude oil to $100. That would be Brent. For WTI? $97/bbl. Source: BofA analysts.  

Copper: on another note, copper prices are surging. Link to Robert Rapier. 

Copper, one of the best conductors of electricity, is extensively used in the production of electric vehicles, wind turbines, and solar panels. Offshore wind farms, due to their extensive cabling, are particularly copper-intensive, requiring 9.6 metric tons of copper per megawatt (MW) of energy capacity. Onshore wind farms and solar photovoltaics (PV) are also highly copper-intensive, requiring 4.3 tons and 5 tons of copper per MW, respectively.

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Back to the Bakken

NDIC:

• complete IT database is compromised
• no idea if any of the scout tickets are even correct any more;
• they do not appear to being updated
  
• status of wells as reported by NDIC -- no clue if current
• no update on the scout tickets for the two CLR wells that came off confidential list yesterday
  
• this has been going on since July, 2021
• now, the NDIC has removed the daily updating of active rig counts
• so, data from NDIC that is posted daily is .... well, almost meaningless
• oilprice has more credibility
• but we press on

Active rigs (see above)* -- data below may be incorrect:

$71.12	9/21/2021	09/21/2020	09/21/2019	09/21/2018	09/21/2017
Active Rigs	2058*	11	58	66	57

According to NDIC, no wells coming off confidential list today, but we really don't know, do we? It will be interesting to see if NDIC continues posting a daily activity report. My hunch: that goes away soon, also.

RBN Energy: why western Canada's natural gas production has been hitting multi-year highs. 

With natural gas prices reaching levels not seen in seven years, Western Canada is doing all it can to help increase gas supply, with recent data showing monthly production hitting multi-year highs. 

Moreover, Canadian forward gas prices are at the highest levels since 2014, gas pipeline expansions are in place or being constructed to accommodate future supply expansion, and gas-focused drilling activity remains strong — all of which may as well be a prescription for sending gas production to record levels later this year and in 2022. In today’s RBN blog, we provide an update on the recent gas production growth in Alberta and neighboring provinces and why more growth is coming.

That's Canada.

The US? Not so fast. We should start hearing stories about the Dem-led FERC this winter. 

Reminder: ISO NE. This morning, 7:12 a.m. EDT: $50. Should be below $20.

• natural gas: 60%
• nuclear: 30%
• that totals ... let's see .... 60 + 30 = 90%
• does anything else matter?