Notes From All Over -- Part 6 -- August 6, 2021

Wow, wow, wow! Here we go! "Dow futures jump after better-than-expected jobs report. LOL. [This is inaccurate conclusion.] Earlier this morning I posted that their was too much hand-wringing over the jobs story. I said then, and I have maintained "forever," the jobs would take care of themselves.

So,what are future doing?

• DOW: up 78 points. After the report surges, up 180 points at the open.
  
• S&P 500: up 5.5 points. After the report up 10 points at the open.
• NASDAQ: down 35 points. After the report pares losses, only down 16 at the open.
• WTI: up 1.45%, now trading above $70 again

Both the Dow and the S&P 500 hit new all-time records. 

It's a fool's errand to predict the price of oil, but the tea leaves certainly suggest producers are running "behind," right now. And there may be a mismatch of the type of oil in demand if that makes sense.

But holy mackerel, this jobs report is amazing. Jay Powell must be smiling. And so is Biden.

• payrolls increase by 943,000, well past the estimates; but look at this:
• unemployment rate drops to 5.4%. 

Wow. 

Estimates had been for 845,000 and a headline jobless rate of 5.7%. Having said that, the graphic at this link is not particularly exciting. But, wow, if your cup is half full like mine, this is huge. Look at that graph at the link. Think about it for a few minutes. Then think about the US economy, the stock market, the GDP going forward.  

Average hourly earnings also increased more than expected, rising 0.4% for the month of July. 

The drop in the headline unemployment rate looked even stronger considering that the labor force participation rate ticked up to 61.7%, tied for the highest level since the pandemic hit in March 2020. A separate calculation that includes discouraged workers and those holding jobs part-time for economic reasons fell even further, to 9.2% from 9.8% in June.

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Covid-19

This is going to be the big story for the rest of August: companies across the board are going to require employees to be vaccinated.

Example: United Airlines announced that overnight. This is a first for domestic airlines, but the others will quickly fall in line. 

Example: CNN has zero tolerance policy on this one. Fires three workers coming to work unvaccinated. And, oh, by the way, so far, that policy has been held up in court. 

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Covid-19

Australia.