Oil Continues To Climb That Wall Of Uncertainty -- July 5, 2021

Rambling. Not ready for prime time.

For those paying attention (and for those not), this is really quite "exciting" for lack of a better word. The price of oil continues to "climb that wall of uncertainty."

Right now, at 9:54 p.m. CT:

• WTI: up 2.09%; up $1.57; now trading at $76.73;
• Brent: up 0.54%, up 42 cents; now trading at $77.58
  
• natural gas: up almost 3%; up almost 11 cents; now trading at $3.809

This seems to be the consensus (it seems 75% of analysts agree; 25% would disagree): oil markets will tighten regardless of OPEC's decision. While OPEC+ grabbed the attention of oil markets with its recent failure to agree on a production increase, its decision was never going to balance markets as demand rebounds. -- Tsvetana Paraskova.

I suppose if one wants to keep it simple: the price of oil is likely to rise until demand destruction causes it to reverse course. The question becomes: at what price does that occur? 

Equity market futures are mixed, with the Dow up marginally and the NASDAQ down marginally.  

The ten-year treasury: steady at 1.43%. 

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Walmart

The video linked below went viral earlier today. 

It's quite compelling.

Link: https://twitter.com/prageru/status/1412097189996683266. 

And Walmart is just the tip of the iceberg what the US has to offer. 

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NBA

While I was traveling, I received a note from a reader regarding the popularity (or perhaps more accurately, the "non-popularity") of the NBA right now. The ratings for the conference championships were way down when compared to the "last normal" year (2019). Comparing anything in 2021 to 2020 -- including gasoline demand -- is completely irrelevant. 

But it is what it is. What I'm interested in is how "bad" the finals are going to be.

The finals are going to be "awful" when it comes to viewership.

First and foremost: neither team comes from a large NBA fan base (neither team comes from New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, or Miami). Most of the country, I suspect, will not even know there is a championship going on.

Second,  there is so much more on television these days than even two years ago; too much competition for eyeballs.

Third: quick! Name the franchise player for each of the two teams. No Kobe Bryant. No LeBron James. No ... Not only are fair-weather fans disappointed by the teams (quick: name the two teams ... LOL), they are even more disappointed by the lack of any big-name players.

Fourth, the schedule. I assume this has always been the schedule, but in the fast-paced world we now live in, the schedule seems glacial. We have a game tomorrow night and then the following night (Wednesday/Thursday) but the the third game is not until Sunday, three days later, bypassing two huge sport-day opportunities -- a Friday and a Saturday The fourth game is not scheduled until mid-week -- Wednesday -- after that Sunday game. By that time, the series will be 3 - 0 (the series all but over) or 2 - 1 (yawn). 

So, the championship will be determined on a Wednesday night or the series will be extended to a fifth game, but game 5 won't happen until Saturday -- more than a week after the first game was played. If it's not decided by then, viewers will have to wait another three days for game 6. 

It's hard to believe but game 1 will be played tomorrow, July 6, and game 6 won't be played until July 20. It will seem like an eternity for fair-weather fans. It could take practically the whole month of July to determine the outcome.

I haven't followed professional basketball at all for several years now, but how in the world did the Milwaukee Bucks end up in the Finals? I honestly don't get it. 

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MLB

Could be even worse.

We'll have an idea on July 13, 2021, when the major league baseball All-Star Game is played.