Updates
Later, 4:57 p.m. CT: wow, wow, wow -- apparently the OPEC+ meeting was called off; no date set for next meeting. What is oil doing?
- WTI: up 1.60%; up $1.20; trading at $76.36;
- Brent: up 1.30%; up $1.00; trading at $77.16;
Later, 11:22 a.m. CT: wow -- oil prices up!
- WTI: up 1.2%; up 90 cents; trading at $76.06;
- Brent: up 1.0%; up 76 cents; trading at $76.93;
- look at the narrowing spread between WTI and Brent
Later, 11:20 a.m. CT: it's a fool's errand to predict the price of oil, but I agree with this analyst -- oil unlikely to hit $100 without a major geopolitical event.
- as prices go up, Chinese imports drop;
- as prices go up, US shale production will increase;
- flaw in this analysis:
- Chinese demand may tolerate higher fuel prices
- right or wrong, most analysts argue it's OPEC's "call," not US shale that drives price of oil
Original Post
OPEC: no news is good news. If they cannot come to an agreement, current production quotas remain in place, as I understand it. There's a lot of chatter about the OPEC talks but the best way to figure it out, is to follow the price of oil.
- Brent: up 0.22%; up 17 cents; trading at $76.32;
- WTI: up 0.20%; up 15 cents; trading at $75.31;
- Brent-WTI delta at $2.00; pretty much where it's been for quite some time;
Global supply / demand: the general consensus seems to be that with or without relaxing the production quotas, new global production will continue to come up short of new global demand; if so, one should continue to see draws of crude oil in storage.
European natural gas: link here.
************************************
Back to the Bakken
Active rigs:
$75.33 | 7/5/2021 | 07/05/2020 | 07/05/2019 | 07/05/2018 | 07/05/2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Active Rigs | 23 | 11 | 58 | 64 | 57 |
Due to the holiday, no new data from the NDIC will be reported today.
****************************
At The Pool Over The Fourth
With both Brent at 77+ and WTI 76+ Do we start taking bets on when they cross $80?
ReplyDeleteI've always said it's a fool's errand to predict the price of oil. If there's a price war, and every OPEC country opens the taps, prices could plummet. So many scenarios.
Delete