One Well Coming Off Confidential List -- Another DUC -- July 6, 2021

Wow, isn't this the truth? Link here. 

Market: a reversal today on the three major indices is simply related to the calendar. The second quarter ended last week, the third quarter starts this week. Today's market is pretty much a non-event. Buying opportunity at best.  I can hardly wait to see the earnings reported by oil companies. Earnings will be compared to prior year, 2020, which is nonsense, but that's how "they" do it. Earnings should be compared to same period in 2019.

OPEC basket price. Link here. $75.71.

WTI: it's a fool's errand to predict oil prices. This is just a comment. Not a prediction. It appears most analysts feel oil will remain in a trading range, $65 - $85. Very few "respectable" analysts actually see $100 oil. Right now it appears it might be a real challenge to get to $85 before the end of the year.

Are we back or what! Last March, 2020, more than a year ago, I was "evicted" from Starbucks when the word went out -- everything was closing due to the pandemic. And here I am, back in a Starbucks in north Texas, more than a year later. First time in over a year that I've actually set foot in a Starbucks and the first coffee from same. Wow. Surreal. Masks optional for fully vaccinated. I'm fully vaccinated. I'm one of the few that came into the store masked. But everything is spread out and so few in the store that I am wearing my mask where most folks wear their masks now: under their chin. LOL

Starbucks: I wouldn't be here except that I drove my wife to a medical appointment and then went off for coffee. I told her I would be back in three weeks. LOL.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$74.19	7/6/2021	07/06/2020	07/06/2019	07/06/2018	07/06/2017
Active Rigs	22	11	58	65	57

One well coming off confidential list:

Tuesday, July 6, 2021: 2 for the month, 2 for the quarter, 182 for the year:

• 37399, drl/NC, CLR, Gale 8-32H1, Cedar Coulee, no production data,
  

Monday, July 5, 2021: 1 for the month, 1 for the quarter, 181 for the year:

• None.

Sunday, July 4, 2021: 1 for the month, 1 for the quarter, 181 for the year:

• None.

Saturday, July 3, 2021: 1 for the month, 1 for the quarter, 181 for the year:

• None.

RBN Energy: will crude oil hit $100 a barrel?

After the crude oil price crash in the spring of 2020 and flat-at-$40/bbl oil last summer and early fall, prices for both WTI and Brent have been increasing steadily the past several months, and now stand at a kind-of-remarkable $75/bbl. This rise has been driven by a combination of demand recovery and supply restraint from both OPEC+ and U.S. producers — which begs the questions: what’s next on the supply and demand fronts, and how much more will oil prices increase from here? There’s been a lot of chatter lately that we might see $100/bbl crude prices sometime soon, and there are a lot of interested parties — many of whom don’t normally see eye-to-eye — who, for one reason or another, see their interests converge around the $100/bbl mark. The only problem is, it’s not showing up in the forward curve. Today, we look at the potential for “Benjamin-a-barrel” oil and how it might play out.

For most of us, Fourth of July this year was a heck of a lot more social and fun than last year, when COVID-19 lockdowns, mask-wearing, and a general sense of anxiety had just about everyone in a funk. No doubt, there’s a lot of reason for optimism nowadays. These high hopes have even extended to the energy sector too. Demand for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel are up among developed nations and the U.S. in particular. Last Friday, heading into the holiday weekend, U.S. gasoline and diesel prices soared to their highest level in seven years and U.S. refiners are running hard to keep pace, with refinery utilization up to 93% recently. Crude oil production has been increasing more slowly than demand, however, resulting in inventory draws and higher prices for crude and refined products. The modest, measured gain in production is partly by design. The members of OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, along with Russia (OPEC+), have been uncharacteristically disciplined in ratcheting up their crude oil output, and have been rewarded by steadily higher prices — we’ll come back to that topic a bit later.