Updates
August 7, 2020: be sure to look at most recent comments -- the confirmed figures show that the EIA's weekly reports for oil production in May averaged 1,418,000 barrels per day above what was actually produced, so they were off by more than even I imagined...clarifying...almost 1.5 million bopd OVER-reported...actual May production was only 10 mbpd; remember the negative price quotes? those were for May oil...
June 4, 2020: be sure to look at comments.
Original Post
Link here. Pending, due out at 9:30 a.m. CT.
Meanwhile, while waiting: ADP data "massively" beats consensus. Okay, we'll go with that.
OPEC basket: quietly goes up to $34.95. Link here. WTI at $36.92.
EOG:
The EIA weekly data:
- US crude oil inventories declined by 2.1 million bbls from the previous week;
- US crude oil inventories now stand at 532.3 million bbls, 12% above the already-fat-five-year average for this time of year;
- refineries were operating at 71.8% capacity, pretty much unchanged;
- US crude oil imports decreased by 1.0 million bbls/day -- an average of one VLCC every two or three day;
- US crude oil imports are down about 18% on average from a year ago
- jet fuel product supplied pretty much unchanged at 68.7% from last year
Week
|
Week Ending
|
Change
|
Million Bbls Storage
|
Week 0
|
November 21, 2018
|
4.9
|
446.9
|
Week 1
|
November 28, 2018
|
3.6
|
450.5
|
Week 2
|
December 6, 2018
|
-7.3
|
443.2
|
Week 3
|
December 12, 2018
|
-1.2
|
442.0
|
Week 4
|
December 19, 2018
|
-0.5
|
441.5
|
Week 5
|
December 28, 2018
|
0.0
|
441.4
|
Week 71
|
April 8, 2020
|
15.2
|
484.4
|
Week 72
|
April 15, 2020
|
19.2
|
503.6
|
Week 72
|
April 22, 2020
|
15.0
|
518.6
|
Week 73
|
April 29, 2020
|
9.0
|
527.6
|
Week 74
|
May 6, 2020
|
4.6
|
532.2
|
Week 75
|
May 13, 2020
|
-0.7
|
531.5
|
Week 76
|
May 20, 2020
|
-5.0
|
526.5
|
Week 77
|
May 28, 2020
|
7.9
|
534.4
|
Week 78
|
June 3, 2020
|
-2.1
|
532.3
|
US crude oil imports:
Crude Oil Imports
|
||||
Week (week-over-week)
|
Week Ending
|
Raw Data, millions of bbls
|
Change (millions of bbls)
|
Four-week period comparison
|
Week 0
|
March 11, 2029
|
6.4
|
0.174
|
|
Week 1
|
March 18, 2020
|
6.5
|
0.127
|
|
Week 2
|
March 25, 2020
|
6.1
|
-0.422
|
|
Week 3
|
April 1, 2020
|
6.0
|
-0.070
|
|
Week 4
|
April 8, 2020
|
5.9
|
-0.173
|
|
Week 5
|
April 15, 2020
|
5.7
|
-0.194
|
|
Week 6
|
April 22, 2020
|
5.6
|
-0.700
|
|
Week 7
|
April 29, 2020
|
5.3
|
0.365
|
-19.700%
|
Week 8
|
May 6, 2020
|
5.7
|
0.410
|
|
Week 9
|
May 13, 2020
|
5.4
|
-0.321
|
-26.100%
|
Week 10
|
May 20, 2020
|
5.2
|
-0.194
|
|
Week 11
|
May 28, 2020
|
7.2
|
2.000
|
-16.400%
|
Week 12
|
June 3, 2020
|
6.2
|
-1.000
|
-18.300%
|
Jet fuel delivered:
Jet Fuel Delivered, Change, Four-Week/Four-Week
|
||
Week
|
Week Ending
|
Change
|
Week 0
|
3/7/2020
|
-12.80%
|
Week 1
|
3/14/2020
|
-12.60%
|
Week 2
|
3/21/2020
|
-8.90%
|
Week 3
|
3/28/2020
|
-16.40%
|
Week 4
|
4/4/2020
|
-0.22%
|
Week 5
|
4/11/2020
|
-39.70%
|
Week 6
|
4/18/2020
|
-53.60%
|
Week 7
|
4/24/2020
|
-61.60%
|
Week 8
|
5/1/2020
|
-66.60%
|
Week 9
|
5/8/2020
|
-68.50%
|
Week 10
|
5/15/2020
|
-67.90%
|
Week 11
|
May 22, 2020
|
-66.60%
|
Week 12
|
June 3, 2020
|
-68.70%
|
i haven't even looked at the rest of the report, but the first thing i noticed is that a million barrels of oil per day went missing for the third week in a row, ie, production + imports + storage withdrawal has been 1 mbpd greater than refinery use + exports + the SPR addition...
ReplyDeletebest guess is that their production number has been wrong...
I bet you are correct. The NDIC reports North Dakota monthly production every month in the monthly Director's Cut. But the first iteration is always "preliminary." It is not until two months later that the reported production number is considered "final." So, even at four weeks, the monthly production from one small state in the United States, the first number reported is "preliminary." One month later, we get the "final" number. Just like the GDP -- three readings, I believe.
DeleteThe other components you mention [imports, storage withdrawal; refinery inputs; exports; SPR adds/draws] are much more easily accounted for.
the confirmed figures show that the EIA's weekly reports for oil production in May averaged 1,418,000 barrels per day above what was actually produced, so they were off by more than even i imagined...
DeleteSorry for the delay getting this posted. I'm traveling and behind and in my e-mail, and when I saw your "May" in the note, I thought it was an old comment, but then realized this is the "confirmed" figures which are delayed another month....whatever ... but that really is huge -- almost 1.5 million bopd under-reported -- if I'm saying that correctly; reading your not correctly -- that's a huge amount. Truly amazing.
Deleteclarifying...almost 1.5 million bopd OVER-reported...actual May production was only 10 mbpd; remember the negative price quotes? those were for May oil...
DeleteThank you, got it. I may have mis-understood but at least your comments are posted as you sent them. Someday I might understand all this. LOL.
Deletei figure it probably goes the other way in July, ie, EIA under-reports product, just as you first said....the crude oil balance sheet that i check each week shows their figures switched from a supply side surplus in May & June to a supply side deficit in July (ie, suggesting they switched from reporting too much production to under-reporting it) ...the EIA seems to be deploying a pretty dumb algorithm for estimating production, that doesn't pick up on changes in the field that are obvious to any flesh & blood with a brain that happens to be watching...
DeleteSo, how do you really feel about the EIA? LOL. You made my evening.
DeleteI'll be traveling the next few days so if you send me anything, I might not see it until Monday or so. Again, thank you for taking me seriously, considering how much I really don't know. Bruce
yeah, well you listen, and that's important...those who think they know it all already don't listen, so what would be the point of telling them?
Delete"So, what would be the point of telling them?" LOL. Just to irritate them.
Deletealso of note: distillate demand was at a 28 year low, & distillate supplies were at a 37 year high, & what's most notable about that is that they were actually higher in 1983...
ReplyDeletewe also added over 4 million barrels to the SPR, & that appears to be the most ever added in one week..
Thank you. Posted as a stand-alone post here: http://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2020/06/us-distillate-demand-at-28-year-low.html.
Delete