NDIC Director's Cut -- March, 2020, Data

Disclaimer: usual disclaimer applies. As usual, this is done very, very quickly. It is not proofread. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. If this is important to you, go to the source. It is generally updated in segments, so until the entire report is completed, there may be old data still present. 

Link here.

Month-over-month crude oil production decreased by 1.6% ... having said that, this was an incredibly good report ... considering all the headwinds ...

Crude oil production (bopd) came in very, very good, considering:

• first month that "global economy" really started to tank due to Wuhan flu;
• completions: huge jump in the number of completions -- up to 120 completions (preliminary) compared to 57 the month before and 70 the month before that
• as a reminder, completions dropped from 70 wells in January, to a meager 57 wells in February (average 2.258 wells/day vs 1.966 wells/day); ; the greatest amount of oil produced by a Bakken well is in its first full six months after being fracked; a decrease in the number of completed wells is historically problematic;
• DUCs decreased by almost 5%; the greatest amount of oil produced by a Bakken well is in its first full six months after being fracked; the completion of DUCs made a huge difference this month (March, 2020);

Disclaimer: As usual, this is done very, very quickly. It is not proofread. There will be content and typographical errors on this page. I need to check the figures later. If this is important to you, go to the source.

The Director's Cut

Data For March, 2020

North Dakota Oil and Natural Gas Production

Disclaimer: usual disclaimer applies. As usual, this is done very, very quickly. It is not proofread. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. If this is important to you, go to the source.

Link here to past reports.

A huge, huge "thank you" to Lynn Helms and his staff at the NDIC getting this information out in a timely and transparent manner. I am not aware of any other state that does such a good job providing such data.
 
Crude oil production:

• March, 2020, preliminary: 1,428,273 bopd (96% from the Bakken/Three Forks; 4% from legacy pools)
• previous months: 
• February, 2020, final: 1,451,681 bopd
• January, 2020, final: 1,430,511 bopd (all-time time was November, 2019)
• December, 2019, final: 1,476,777 bopd
• November, 2019, final:1,519,037 bopd -- new all-time high after final figures come in;
• revenue forecast: 1.4 million bopd
• October, 2019, final: 1,517,936 bopd -- previous all-time high
• September, 2019, final, 1,443,980 bopd -- very, very wet September that impacted oil fields
• August, 2019, final, 1,480,475 bopd (previous all-time high)
• July, 2019, final: 1,445,934 bopd (previous all-time high)
• June, 2019, final: 1,425,230 bopd (previous all-time high)
• month-over-month, bbls: decreased by 23,408 bopd  (March, 2020 -- February, 2020)
• month-over-month, percent: -1.6%  (March, 2020 - February, 2020)

Gas production:

• March, 2020, preliminary: 3,125,895 MCF/day (new all-time high); 87% capture;
• February, 2020, final: 3,109,750 MCF/day (new all-time high at that time); 87% capture;
• Previous months: 
• January, 2020, final: 3,019,938 MCF/day; 84% capture rate (improved, month-over-month)
• December, 2019, final: 3,061,412 MCF/day; 84% capture rate (improved, month-over-month)
• November, 2019, final: 3,165,585MCF/day; new all-time high on a per-day basis; all time on a monthly basis, October, 2019)
• 83% capture
• October, 2019, final: 3,070,616 MCF/day
• 81% capture
• September, 2019, final: 2,946,391 MCF/day (note -- fell below the 3-billion threshold previously reported)
• August , 2019, final: 3,014,419 MCF/day -- an all-time high
• July, 2019, final: 2,944,816 MCF/day
• June, 2019, final: 2,885,293 MCF/day

BOE, March, 2020, preliminary:

• March, 2020, preliminary
• natural gas: 3,125,895 MCF/day = 520,896 boe
• crude oil: 1,428,273 bopd
• total boe, preliminary for March, 2020: 1,949,169 boepd
• all-time high, November, 2019: 2,046,547 boepd

Producing wells:

• March, 2020, preliminary: 16,263 -- if this number holds (and it will), this sets a new all-time high for producing wells
• previous high for previous wells: October, 2019: 16,169
• February, 2020, final: 16,149
• January, 2020, final; 16,014
• December, 2019, final; 16,042
• November, 2019, final: 16,110
• October, 2019, final: 16,169 (new all-time high)
• September, 2019, final: 16,115
• August, 2019, final: 15,964 (all-time high was 15,954, July 2019)
• July, 2019, final: 15,954 (another new all-time high)
• June, 2019, 15,752

Wells off-line:

• March, 2020, preliminary:
• inactive: 2,161 
• DUCs: 975
• total: 3,136 
• March: it makes sense that inactive wells are up; DUCs are down; when DUCs are completed, neighboring wells are shut in to protect them; 
• February, 2020, final: 
• inactive: 2,091
• DUCs: 1,027
• total: 3,118
• January, 2020, final:
• inactive: 2,607
• DUCs: 1,024
• total: 3,631
• December, 2019, final:
• inactive: 1,920
• DUCs: 958
• total: 2,878
• November, 2019, final:
• inactive: 1,726
• DUCs: 919
• total: 2,645

Permitting:

• April, 2020: 61 (considering all that is going on, this is not bad)
• March, 2020: 68
• February, 2020: 60
• January, 2020: 61
• December, 2019: 67
• November, 2019: 79
• October, 2019: 126
• September, 2019: 92
• August, 2019: 127
• July, 2019: 141
• June, 2019: 127

Rig count:

• Today: 12 (all-time high was 218 on 5/29/12)
• March, 2020: 52 
• February, 2020: 54
• January, 2020: 55
• December, 2019: 55
• November: 55
• October: 56
• September: 61
• August: 62
• July: 57
• June: 63

Fort Berthold Reservation data partitioned out.

Completions:

• March, 2020, preliminary: a whopping 120 wells were completed in March, 2020
• February, 2020, final: 57
• January, 2020, final: 70 (revised)
• December, 2019, final: 88 (revised)
• revenue forecast: 90
• November, 2019, final: 92
• October, 2019, final: 102
• September, 2019, final: 117 (revised up from 94) (revised a second time, up from 112)
• August, 2019, final: 102
• July, 2019, final: 137
• June, 2019, 102 (revised, last month's report); revised again, now, 123
• May, 2019, 113 (final)

 Gas capture:

• statewide, captured: 87% (flat)
• statewide, captured:
• March, 2002: 2,711,084 MCF/day  -- captured -- new all-time high
• February, 2020: 2,699,065 MCF/day (final) new all-time high
• January, 2020: 2,553,067 MCF/day (final)
• December, 2019: 2,557446 MCF/day (final)
• November, 2019: 2,594,922 MCF/day (new all-time high)
• October, 2019:  2,524,405 MCF/day
• September, 2019: 2,429,487 MCF/day
• previous all time high was May, 2019: 2,287,761 MCF/day
• FBIR Bakken:
• March, 2020: 83%
• January, 2020: 83%
• December, 2019: 81%
• November, 2019: 81%
  October, 2019, captured: 70% (was 79% in September)(75% reported two months ago, August, 2019)

Off line, to end of March, 2020: 3,136 -- back in January, 2020, it as -- 3,631; 

• DUCs: 975 (down 52 from the 1,027 in February
• inactive well count: 2,161 (up 70 from 2,091 in February)
• wells off line for operational reasons are tracked here;  
• if I recall correctly, December, 2019, was a fairly "mild" winter by North Dakota standards;
• January: huge jump in DUCs and inactive wells; 
• February, 2020, was a fairly mild month, as I recall; 
• March, 2020: DUCs down a bit, but inactive wells out-numbered DUCs

A year earlier, March, 2019, the "off-line well" data:

March, 2019:

• DUCs: 968, up 74 from last report
• inactive: 1,697, up 30 from last report
• total: 2,665 (up from 2,561 last month; this represents about 1,000 more wells than will be drilled this calendar year; 2,561 is about what North Dakota will complete every three years)
• I do believe that this (2,665) represents an all-time high)

Rig count:

• Today: 12
• April: 35
• March: 52
• February: 54