Recession Is Right Around The Corner -- September 25, 2019

Updates

12:26 p.m. CT: I posted the original note at 8:37 a.m. CT elsewhere but now moved the original post over here (12:26 p.m. CT). I did not buy any shares of GM when the market opened, but I did buy shares in another company as soon as the market opened. The Dow was negative at the time. Right now, the Dow is up 141 points -- and this is after the "transcript of the telephone call was released." It looks more and more like the whistleblower is working for Pocahontas or Kamala Harris, at least that's what I'm hearing on talk radio. This turns out to be a twofer -- embroils both Trump and Biden. LOL. But I digress. Some think that Trump could gain two to three points in the next Rasmussen poll. [Later: Rasmussen poll shows Trump at his recent high, at 53% approval.]

The point of the GM note below: this certainly does not look like movers and shakers think there will be a recession in the next six months. 

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GM

Updates  

On a day of volatility in the market and then at the end of the day, a small loss for the market, shares in GM were up. We discussed the GM strike earlier. Two developments today:

• an Investor's Business Daily story that there are signs that the UAW strike is nearing an end; and,
• GM says it will continue to pay for health insurance for those on strike

Original Note
GM:

• employees on strike
• could lose $100 million / day
• car sales down globally
• and, recession is right around the corner
• and, GM shares:
• up eleven cents today, and
• paying over 4%

GM strike:

• could go on much longer than expected
• will be much shorter than anyone expects
• it takes about two years for a long-term employee to recover what was lost during  the strike
• that was also true in the USAF; every move -- especially if it was an overseas move -- took me two years to fully recover; to get back to where I was before the move (and that move was largely paid by the government)

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, career, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

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Trump's Timing

Unless President Trump had an interview with a hologram of the president of the Ukraine, it sounds like President Trump met personally and publicly and took questions at the UN with the president of the Ukraine. The latter said he was never pressured to do anything by President Trump.

Now, correct me if I'm wrong, but what are the odds that the president of any foreign government would "be in town" exactly on the day that Trump needs him most, when the US House is taking up an impeachment inquiry? Not only that but Trump will hold another press conference later today (September 25, 2019). "Never let a good crisis go to waste," Rahm Emanuel, the Obama administration. President Trump will note that this Congress has done nothing, particularly:

• nothing on expediting visas/citizenship for DACA-eligible immigrants
• nothing on gun control
• nothing on prescription drug pricing

Everything hits the fan yesterday; Nancy Pelosi begrudgingly sets "impeachment" in motion ... and the man of the hour, the president of the Ukraine just happens to "be in town." What are the odds?