When Mexico Implodes: PEMEX Oil Production, March, 2019 -- Analyst Suggests 1.7 Million BOPD

Updates

May 25, 2019:

Original Post

See this note. At that post:

April 5, 2019: no link; from analyst over at twitter today; company estimates PEMEX produced 1.7 million bopd in March, 2019. Note recent production history below. "Current production" said to be 1.8 million bopd so if the 1.7 million bopd is correct, Mexico's oil production is going in the wrong direction.

From Platts/oilprice:

For OPEC: 570,000 bbls / 30.8 million bbls = 1.85% decline

Global production: 570,000 bbls / 100 million bbls = 0.57%.

I think the world will manage.

The US has 450 million bbls of oil in storage (commercial; does not include SPR); historically the US got along just fine with about 300 million bbls in storage; re-balancing: can't even get back to 350 million bbls. The bad news: OPEC generally has the "right" kind of oil -- the oil that is needed to blend light oil for refiners. But of the three, WTI, Brent, and OPEC basket, only OPEC basket was "down" today in trading. The other two were up. WTI and Brent were both up about 1.5%; OPEC basket was down about a third of a percent.