March 15, 2019, T+72, Part 2 -- Something Has Really Spooked Tesla Investors

Weather: we've been watching the "bomb cyclone" on the weather channel the last four days; Denver has been shut down, hit hard by winter storm, blizzard; our son-in-law and three granddaughters arrived in the Denver area just as the storm hit; they went there to go skiing. It turns out they got in three good days -- as planned -- of skiing. Our son-in-law and our four -(almost five-) year-old granddaughter may have enjoyed it the most. The older granddaughters probably take it too seriously -- really, really trying to improve. 

Okay, the market has opened.

Note: I apologize to delayed replies to correspondence. I've received a lot of e-mails and comments over the past two days but am so busy I won't get to them until later today or over the weekend. But please continue writing. I learn a lot; get a lot of great ideas. Good luck to all.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions or plans based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

WTI: dropped below $58. "OPEC threatens to kill US shale." Okay.

Threat: OPEC spokesman says the cartel will destroy the US shale industry if US votes to place sanctions on OPEC cartel. Saudi tried that in 2014: it was a trillion-dollar mistake. It would be more painful this time for everyone if OPEC opened the spigots. So much for Saudi's recent statement it would do anything to support the price of oil.

The market, at opening:

• Dow futures: up 39 points
• Tesla, wow, wow, wow -- down $13; down almost 5%; more on this later;
  
• XLNX, up almost 2%; up about $2.00;
• UNP, up 55 cents;
• AAPL,  up 74 cents;
• RDS-B, up 32 cents;
• CVX, up 34 cents;
• COP,  up 37 cents;
• BRK, up $1.52

*********************************

Notes to the Granddaughters

For The Archives

And Mostly For Connor

Okay, some comments with regard to the market:

• for whatever reason, the market crashed back in December, 2018, wiped out a lot of gains, but since then, the market seems to have come back nicely
• for about two months, maybe longer, I never looked at the market, once it started crashing; generally, I remain fully invested regardless; I know most folks like to keep "some powder dry"; I've found I can always find plenty of "losers" in my portfolio that I can sell if I want to buy something else
• over the years, I have "left a lot of money on the table," as they say -- I might have done better had I been more serious about investing
• having said that, I feel so fortunate that I was an investor and not simply a saver (one has to be both)
• my dad taught me very, very little about investing -- except he invested, and I watched; I bet I was in elementary school when I first heard him talking about investing
• he would invest even when he had very, very little money
• right now, I feel really, really good about the market
• generally speaking, I like to invest in companies that pay dividends
• early on, everything I bought, dividends were automatically reinvested
• now, after 40 years of investing I don't do any more automatic reinvesting of dividends; I build up a cash position and then re-invest later; 
• I am still fortunate enough that I can re-invest all dividends, even in retirement;
• generally speaking, it appears had I never sold anything after the initial investment, I would be much better off today (examples of companies I sold way too early, and I consciously made the decision to sell; these were mistakes: WDF; STE; KOG; WEN);
• 95% of my portfolio is managed professionally; mutual funds, for example
• my professionally managed portfolio has done better than what I have done on my own, but the latter is more fun
• by the way, that automatic re-investing during the December, 2018, crash really, really paid off very, very nicely
• AAPL is in a position to really increase its dividend; maybe even a special dividend; but I wouldn't be on it
• in the energy sector, the "majors" look really exiting right now
• I've always loved railroads; BNSF/BNI was my all-time favorite and then Warren Buffett bought it. I got into BRK that way and have been quite delighted
• having "lost" all my BNSF/BNI, I then re-built a position in UNP, and am happy how that has worked out
•  probably nothing has given me a better "adult" education than investing; 
• investing keeps one young -- or at least feeling young; when Dad was 94 years old he was still doing calculations on the back of the cloth napkins at the nursing home

I really apologize but I find this quite interesting -- something has really spooked TSLA investors. This should not have happened:

• Musk Melon unveiled S3XY 
• Model Y is billed as an SUV for the masses

But something has spooked TSLA investors -- down another 4% today, down over $12; by the way Yahoo!Finance has not changed the "amount of cash on hand" over at Tesla even though Tesla had that $1 billion debt to pay earlier this month; "cash on hand" is still shown as $3.69 billion.

Tesla "news":

• the tesla network is dead -- contributor at SeekingAlpha;

• on March 6, Tesla removed all reference to the Tesla Network from its website.
• the Tesla Network is meant to be an autonomous car service that would eventually compete with Uber and Lyft in the ride-sharing space.
• Tesla has made big promises about its autonomous driving program, but it appears to be falling ever farther behind the leaders in the technology.
• Tesla's valuation is based in part on future mobility-as-a-service revenues. These are unlikely to materialize anytime soon, if ever.
• as analysts come to realize that the Tesla Network is not arriving soon (or perhaps ever), they will have to revise their price targets. Expect negative pressure on the stock.

• Investors underwhelmed by unveiling of SEXY -- contributor at SeekingAlph;
• Tesla appoints new CFO and CAO in finance team shakeup; no link; story easy to find
• Morgan Stanley trims Tesla target to $260; benzinga; 

But nothing new in those news item to explain another deep sell-off today -- except the underwhelming S3XY unveiling. It just dawned on me: Tesla unveilings are becoming more like Hollywood movie sequels. The original movie is a blockbuster but the sequels are poor imitators.

But this is why I'm apologizing. Something has really spooked TSLA investors, and I'm going to post this song again for the umpteenth time:

Sixteen Reasons, Mulholland Drive, David Lynch