Wednesday, February 27, 2019

EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report -- February 27 2019

Link here.
  • US crude oil inventories: plummeted by a whopping 8.6 million bbls
  • US crude oil inventories: at 445.9 million bbls is now only 3% above the five-year average (which continues to increase) -- but 3% is significantly less than the 6% we've been seeing
  • US crude oil imports: down by 1.6 million bopd -- quite remarkable; averaged just under 6 million bopd
  • US refineries operating at 87.1% capacity; better than last couple of weeks, but still well below historic operating capacity
  • jet fuel supplied still greater than previous year; up 2.5% compared to same four-week period last year
Following EIA report, WTI:
  • surged over 3%
  • up $1.74/bbl
  • now trading at $57.24 
Reaction to weekly report:


Re-balancing to 400 million bbls -- won't happen in my lifetime (and, oh, by the way, the "historic norm" for US crude oil inventories was 350 million bbls -- so 400 million bbls remains a very, very robust inventory for US crude oil -- especially in light of "Occasional-Cortex talk" that oil won't be needed at all in a few years):

Week
Date
Change w-o-w
In Storage
Weeks to RB to 350 Million Bbls
Week 0
November 21, 2018
4.9
446.9
N/A
Week 1
November 28, 2018
3.6
450.5
N/A
Week 2
December 6, 2018
-7.3
443.2
N/A
Week 3
December 12, 2018
-1.2
442.0
Never at this rate
Week 4
December 19, 2018
-0.5
441.5
Never at this rate
Week 5
December 28, 2018
0.0
441.4
Never at this rate
Week 6
January 4, 2019
0.0
441.4
Never at this rate
Week 7
January 9, 2019
-1.7
439.7
A long, long time
Week 8
January 16, 2019
-2.7
437.1
Won’t happen in my lifetime
Week 9
January 24, 2019
8.0
445.0
Won’t happen i my lifetime
Week 10
January 31, 2019
0.9
445.9
Won’t happen in my lifetime
Week 11
February 6, 2019
1.3
447.2
Won’t happen in my lifetime
Week 12
February 13, 2019
3.6
450.8
Won’t happen in my lifetime
Week 13
February 21, 2019
3.7
454.8
Won’t happen in my lifetime
Week 14
February 27, 2019
-8.6
445.9
Won’t happen in my lifetime







0.3



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