Tesla Watch -- March 30, 2018 -- When It Rains, It Pours

Updates

March 31, 2018:

Later, 9:15 p.m. Central Time:

Later, 8:54 p.m. Central Time: it's being reported Friday night, just before a 3-day holiday weekend that:

Later, 8:27 p.m. Central Time: from ZeroHedge --

Original Post

Based on open sources from across the net, but mostly from "@TeslaCharts" over at twitter, this is my 30-second, elevator speech on Tesla's first quarter, 2018:

The "final" numbers are in because it's Easter Friday and no more deliveries for the month (March) will be made by Tesla.

Based on VIN registration numbers, Bloomberg and "Tesla Charts" (twitter) has the estimates for 1Q18.

It appears that Tesla "smashed" records for delivery in the last two weeks of the quarter, which will result in total numbers for first quarter 2018 being "respectable."  Those who love Tesla will say this proves Tesla is doing very, very well; those who hate Tesla will have the numbers to prove their point. The SEC filing only said they would "reach" 2,500/week by the end of the quarter, not "sustain 2,500" week after week after week. So, technically, it's possible Tesla will have reached 2,500/week by the end of the quarter because of the last two weeks of delivery but averaging over the entire 12 weeks, it will be far less.

This explains (at least for me) why Musk waited to announce a capital raise. If the numbers are as good as the estimates suggest, he will have more fire power going to the banks and the venture capitalists to get more cash or a better deal.

All eyes will be on deliveries to Norway.

From "@TeslaCharts," this chart is going to blow away Tesla bulls (and the rest of us). Nissan Leaf is clearly the global winner:

But there's an even bigger story here, actually two bigger stories here:

• Tesla does not have a moat when it comes to EVs; lots and lots of competition
• Nissan Leaf might not be seen as a Tesla competitor, but certainly VW and BMW are 

And see below, BMW has no plans to even ramp up until 2020 -- and they are still out-selling Tesla in Norway.  

From Reuters, March 22, 2018:

BMW will not mass produce electric cars until 2020 because its current technology is not profitable enough to scale up for volume production, the chief executive said on Thursday.  

It's hard for me to believe that a car company like BMW feels their EVs won't be profitable until 2020 and the impression I get from Elon Musk is that he feels his cars already are profitable (I'm probably wrong on that).

With regard to Model 3, from twitter:

Wasn't Model 3 the Tesla for the rest of us?