How The DAPL Impacts Guernsey -- RBN -- March 30, 2018

Canadian blues: Canada's GDP contracted 0.1% in January The WSJ. 

The Canadian economy contracted slightly in January, falling short of expectations as tougher mortgage-lending rules contributed to the biggest decline in real-estate agents and brokers’ output in more than nine years.

Lower output of nonconventional oil extraction also contributed to the overall decline in January.

*******************************

Back to the Bakken

Natural gas pipeline update, from The Bismarck Tribune:

Alliance Pipeline is seeking commitments to expand a natural gas transmission pipeline that runs through North Dakota.

The company's announcement this week comes as North Dakota oil and gas regulators are encouraging new infrastructure investment to handle growing volumes of natural gas production.

The Alliance Pipeline enters North Dakota in Renville County and travels southeast through the state to Richland County.

If the expansion receives regulatory approval, it would require an additional three compressor stations in North Dakota located near Maxbass, Munster and Lisbon, said Alan Roth, a spokesman for Alliance. The expansion is proposed to be in service by the end of 2021.

Active rigs:

$64.94↑	3/30/2018	03/30/2017	03/30/2016	03/30/2015	03/30/2014
Active Rigs	60	49	31	96	194

RBN Energy: what happened to crude oil flows and prices at Guernsey Hub?

With crude prices in the $60s, oil-producing basins other than the Permian are finally seeing signs of life, and that includes the Rockies. But volumes flowing through the most important Rockies crude oil hub — at Guernsey, WY — are down.

Moreover, the price of oil at Guernsey is up, trading at least flat and sometimes at a premium to the downstream market at Cushing, OK, suggesting that committed shippers are having to bid up the price at Guernsey to secure barrels for their downstream pipeline commitments.

What about production from the nearby Powder River Basin? Well, Powder River oil production is up, and the rig count there is double what it was this time last year, so you might think there would be more than enough barrels at Guernsey. But not so. Who’s to blame?

We need to look no further than the Bakken and the Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL) to discover our culprits. Today, we check in on the market at Guernsey and consider the impact of DAPL, the implications for Rockies crude oil outflows, and what it all means for Guernsey price differentials.