Idle Chatter -- Cheating On Quotas; We're Not In Kansas Any More -- January 21, 2017

In an earlier note -- just an hour or so ago -- I linked a Bloomberg article that Don sent me. The article talked about OPEC having a history of cheating on quotas.

When I went back to check that post for typographical errors, it got me to thinking (always a scary thought).

I think "OPEC members cheating on quotas" has become a journalistic meme or trope. Perhaps I'm wrong, but one begins to wonder if things are different this time.

In the past, OPEC set quotas and in hindsight it was found that members cheated on their quotas. Surprise, surprise; I'm shocked, shocked, to find cheating among Arab tribes.  I don't know if Saudi Arabia "cheated" or not, but that is irrelevant.

One can argue things are different this time. Saudi Arabia is hemorrhaging "cash" at a rate that would reach historic lows for their foreign reserves account in nine (9) months and completely deplete that account in four years. For Saudi, it has become about as existential as it can get.

In the past, I don't think it was ever about the survival of Saudi Arabia. It was about how fast any OPEC country was adding to their coffers. But this time, when Saudi's national budget is based on $80-oil (wink, wink) and oil is selling for $50, it's not a stretch to say this can't go on forever.

In the past, if things got out of hand, Saudi Arabia simply had to go to the other OPEC members and warn them to not get too far in front of their headlines. Anyone who really, really, screwed with quotas would eventually feel the wrath of Saudi.

But this time, one wonders if Saudi Arabia really has the same clout. I don't know. But I do get the feeling that if the past, Saudi Arabia was willing to look the other way when members cheated, Saudi Arabia won't ignore "cheaters" now.

In other words, in the past, OPEC exceeded their quotas, but they were never serious about quotas in the first place. The West looked at this cheating, and reported it regularly, so regularly, it became a meme, a trope: "OPEC has a history of cheating on quotas."

This time I think Saudi Arabia (and maybe Russia) is going to look at "cheaters" very, very closely.

So, I guess, there are three questions:

• OPEC cheating: is that a meme, trope? that, today, is irrelevant?
• will Saudi Arabia tolerate "cheaters"?
• if they find evidence of cheating among OPEC members, does Saudi Arabia have any political / military clout to change that behavior?

Enquiring minds want to know.

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Ivanka and Tiffany 
We're Not In Kansas Any More

Years ago I subscribed to Vanity Fair. I finally discontinued the subscription during the the Second Bush administration when it simply became too snarky. But I loved their photo spreads. My hunch is that the Vanity Fair photo spreads are going to be spectacular when it comes to the Trumps. If not Vanity Fair, some glossy. But look at these Vanity Fair photos of Ivanka and Tiffany before the presidency was a gleam in his eyes.

This brings me up to date: a bit snarky but reading between the lines and with eyes wide open, one gets an idea of the Trump children. Thirty-second soundbite: we're not in Kansas any more. We're not even in Kardahsian-land any more.

[Update, January 22, 2017: right on cue. Shortly after posting the Kardashian-land note, I ran across this AFP story: sons and daughters of stars are fashion's new royalty. I've asked this question before and will ask it again: is President Trump riding a wave, or is he creating a wave? Something to reflect upon, I guess.]

The Reflections of My Mind, Marmalade

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I Didn't Start Here But Here It's Where I Ended

I have a music site. I haven't updated it in a long time, and when I do update it, it's infrequent (a lot of the links are broken, and it can take a long, long time to load due to all the links). Often after midnight I start surfing YouTube music videos. Over an hour or so, I can fall into a fugue state, and end up in places, long forgetting where I started and not knowing how I ended up where I do.

I think Hunter S Thompson would have enjoyed YouTube. 

Tonight, it started earlier than usual, about 8:00 a.m. after that strange bike ride home. I started with some music by The Seekers, and then the Bee Gees, and that brought me back to an old "love," and that brought me to this:

I Wouldn't Have Missed It For The World, Ronnie Milsap