Tea Leaves -- June 16, 2016

It turns out that a gun shop actually reported Omar to the FBI. Earlier Attorney General Loretta Lynch overruled FBI Director James B. Comey on firearms sales to those on terrorist watch lists. Something tells me Comey isn't so "comfy" any more. In Washington, when things go this bad, heads have to roll. My hunch is that with the largest mass murder on Obama's watch, and the "stuff" that is coming out about how the FBI bungled this case, Comey will soon be asked to resign. And, of course, that's great news for Hillary.

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Back To Energy

Over at Outrun Change, this from Forbes:

6/21 print edition – Rich Karlgaard at Forbes – Long Boom in Cheap Energy – He says the most significant technology trend in the last decade is not stuff you can do on your smart phone but actually in the area of oil-and-gas production.

He cites Mark Mills from the Manhattan Institute as saying the cost-efficiency of shale drilling has improved 400% since 2008. That means the combination of cost dropping and productivity improving has reduce costs by a factor of four. Awesome.

Then this:

The breakeven price used to be $80 per barrel. Mr. Mills says it is down to $50 now. It is headed for $40 and could eventually hit $20. That is an astounding amount of improvement in a decade or so.

And finally this:

He also said that for practical purposes over the next several decades, the amount of oil and gas available in shale rock is essentially unlimited. A large part of the huge potential for the future is more improvements in technology which will increasing the productivity.

Unfettered, the Bakken can easily produce 2 million bopd. That was the old estimate. If push came to shove, I think it could easily get to 3 million bopd. If there is 500 billion bbls original oil-in-place (OOIP), a 3% primary production rate gives us 15 bbls of oil and 1.4 million bopd for the next 30 years:

• 500 x 0.03 = 15 / 30 years / 365 days = 1.4 million bopd for 30 years
• 500 x 0.05 = 25 / 30 years / 365 days = 2.3 million bopd for 30 years
• 500 x 0.08 = 40 / 30 years / 365 days = 3.7 million bopd for 30 years

 And this is just the Bakken.