Director's Cut Is Out, March, 2015 Data; Bakken Production Increased; The Number Of Producing Wells At An All-Time High; It Takes Workers To Maintain Producing Wells

Director's Cut is out.

Disclaimer: this update is always done in haste; typographical and factual errors are likely. This is for my use only. If this is important to you, you should go to the source. 

Comments on today's Director's Cut can be found here: link here. 

Oil:

• March, 2015: 1,190,582 bopd (preliminary)
• February, 2015: 1,178,082 bopd (revised, final); 1,177,094 (preliminary)
• January, 2015: 1,191,198 bopd (all time high was last month)
• December, 2014: revised, 1,227,483 bopd (preliminary - 1,227,344 bopd - preliminary, new all-time high)
• delta: 12,500 bopd; increase of 1%.

Producing wells: 

• March, 2015: 12,439 (preliminary -- new all-time high)
• February, 2015: 12,199 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• January, 2015: 12,181 (preliminary -- new all-time high)
• December, 2014: 12,134 (preliminary, new all-time high)
• November, 2014: 11,951 (revised); 11,942 (preliminary, new all-time high)
• October, 2014: 11,892; revised 11,942 (preliminary, new all-time high)
• September, 2014: 11,758 (revised); 11,741 (preliminary; new all-time high)
• August, 2014: 11,565

Permitting: drilling permit activity decreased slightly from February to March and significantly more from March to April as operators positioned themselves for low price 2015 budget scenarios.

• April, 2015: 168
• March, 2015: 190
• February, 2015: 197
• January, 2015: 246
• December, 2014: 251
• November, 2014: 235
• October, 2014: 328
• September, 2014: 261
• August, 2014: 273
• All-time high was 370 in 10/2012
  

Pricing:

• Today, 2015: $46.00
• One month ago, 2015: $36.25 (lowest since February, 2009, and January, 2015) (all-time high was $136.29 7/3/2008)
• April, 2015: $38.33
• March, 2015: $31.47
• February, 2015: $34.11
• January, 2015: $31.41
• December, 2014: $40.74
• November, 2014: $60.61
• October, 2014: $68.94
• Sept, 2014: $74.85
• August, 2014: $78.46

Rig count:

• Today: 82 (lowest since January 2010) (all time high was 218 on 5/29/2012)
• One month ago: 91(lowest since January 2010) (all time high was 218 on 5/29/2012) 
• April: 91
• March: 108
• February: 133
• January: 160
• December, 2014: 181
• November, 2014: 188
• October, 2014: 191
• Sept, 2014: 193
• August, 2014: 193
• July, 2014:  192

Director's comments:

Rig counts continue to fall. Then number of well completions rose sharply from 42 (final) in February to 189 (preliminary) in March. Oil price is by far the biggest driver of the slow-down followed by oil extraction tax triggers, NDIC gas capture goals, and NDIC oil conditioning rules.

Drilling rig count:

• since April, has dropped another 8 as of today
• dropped 17 more from March to April
• dropped 25 from February to March
• dropped 27 from January to February
• dropped 7 from November to December
• dropped 21 from December to January
• dropped 23 from January to date of previous month's Director's Cut

Rig utilization:

• has fallen rapidly
• 20,000+ feet rigs: 45% (down from 50% last month)
• shallow well rigs: 25% (down from 30% last month)

Well completions:

• March: an astounding 189 (preliminary figures)
• February: 42
• January: 63
• December: 173 (preliminary)
• November: 48

Weather:

• no major precipitation events
• 8 days with wind speeds in excess of 35 mph (too high for completion work)
• 1 day with temperatures below -10F

Wells waiting to be completed:

• At end of March, an estimated 880 wells were waiting to be completed, a decrease of 20
• At end of February, an estimated 900 wells waiting to be completed, an increase of 75
• March, 2015, Director's Cut -- 825 wells -- an increase of 75-- January data
• Previous Director's Cut -- 750, a decrease of 25
• Red Queen: 110 - 120 completions per month to maintain 1.2 million bopd

Flaring:

• unchanged at 19%
• Tioga gas plant steady at 83% of full capacity (84% last month)
• expansion of gas gathering from south of Lake Sakakawea is still delayed

Gas capture statistics:

• statewide: 80% (October 2014 target was 74%; January 2015 capture target is 77%)
• FBIR Bakken: 85% 
• percent of flaring was unchanged even as the volume of flaring increased 7.7 million cfd
• FBIR: 83% (up from 79% last month, which was up from 77% the month before) 

Fracking policies/regulations:

BLM revised final regulations for hydraulic fracturing on federal and Indian lands were published in the CFR on 3/26/15 so they will go into effect 6/26/15. North Dakota and Colorado have intervened in the Wyoming legal challenge of the rules a nd plan to seek an injunction or temporary restraining order to prevent the rules going into effect until the case is settled.