On track for 1,241 Permits in 2010

If I did the math right, we are on track for 1,241 permits to be granted in North Dakota for calendar year 2010.

Today (April 20) is the 110th calendar day of the year. Today, the NDIC granted the 374th permit of the year. That works out to 1,241 permits for the year.

How does that stack up with the number of permits in past years?

In 2006: 422 permits.
In 2007: 497 permits.
In 2008: 954 permits.
In 2009: 628 permits.
In 2010: so far, 374 permits, which works out to 1,241 for the year.

We'll see.

Generally speaking, once a permit is granted, the well is spudded within six months (in the current boom) and some months later than that the well comes off the confidential list. Operators are allowed to keep a well on the confidential list for six months after the well has been completed.

Of the permits in 2006, how many have been drilled and come off the confidential list or otherwise reported? My database shows 195 (out of 422 permits)

For 2006: 195 (out of 422 permits)

For 2007: 336 (out of 497 permits)

For 2008: 739 (out of 954 permits)

For 2009: 265 (out of 628 permits)

For 2010: 1. Yup, just one.

What was the first well that reported in 2010 (at least that I have a record of)? BEXP's Sorenson 29-32 1-H, #18654, in the Alger oil field, in Mountrail County, with an initial production (IP) of 3,511 bopd.

There are about 750 wells on the confidential list.

There are currently 109 active rigs in North Dakota. That number will fluctuate up and down, although state spokesmen have predicted as many as 150 rigs by mid-summer. The more often quoted figure is 125 rigs.

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Back in early March, I did the same exercise, and these were the results then:

Today, March 10, 2010, is the 69th day of the calendar year. NDIC has granted 224 permits this calendar year. That puts us on track for 1,185 permits for 2010. 

For comparison, here are the numbers for the past four years. The number in red is the total number of permits issued that year. The number in parentheses is the number of permits that were executed (drilled) and have come off the confidential list -- many (most?) wells are not drilled the year of the permit.

2006: 422 (195)

2007: 497 (336)

2008: 953 (734)

2009: 626 (208).