North Dakota Oil Production

Locator: 1001A.

USA

US to be top producer by 2017; net exporter by 2030 -- New York Times. North Dakota is already a net exporter and has been for several years.

North Dakota

October, 2023, data: link here. Crude oil production down 3.7% m/m. First month in a long time (first time?) when natural gas production did not increase m/m. Big increase in number off wells permitted, m/m; from 59 to 77. At 18,619 producing wells, another new high for the number of producing wells. Crude oill production was down because number of completed DUCs decreased.

September, 2023, data: link here. Producing wells, another new all-time high.

August, 2023, data: link here. Producing wells: new all-time high, this month, August, 2023: 18,179. producing wells. Natural gas capture, statewide, 95%; down from 96% last month. North Dakota “mandate: 91%.

July, 2023, data: link here.

June, 2023, data: link here.

May, 2023, data: link here. Producing wells: new all-time high, this month, May, 2023: 17,913 producing wells.

April, 2023, data: link here

March, 2023, data: link here.

February, 2023, data: link here.

January, 2023, data: link here.

December, 2022, data: link here.

November, 2022, data: link here.

October, 2022, data: link here.

September, 2022, data: link here.

August, 2022, data: link here.

July, 2022, data: link here.

June, 2022, data: link here.

May, 2022, data: link here.

April, 2022 data: link here.

March, 2022, data: link here.

February, 2022: data. 

January, 2022: data. Crude oil production down five percent month / month.

December, 2021: data. Crude oil production down two percent month / month.

November, 2021: data. North Dakota crude oil production increased a whopping 4.4% month / month. 

October, 2021: data. Production, flat, month / month.

September, 2021: data. With one-third the number of rigs, North Dakota almost edges out New Mexico for second place. 

August, 2021: data. An increase in crude oil production by about 3%. 

July, 2021: data.

June, 2021: production flat m/m. Lynn Helms says North Dakota retains #2 position. 

May, 2021: slight increase month/month, and significant increase year/year.  In March, 2021, New Mexico moved to #2; North Dakota dropped to #3.

April, 2021; still #2 in the nation. Appears that may be in accurate. Other sources suggest New Mexico moved to #2 in March, 2021; and, North Dakota dropped to #3.

February, 2013: Director's Cut: new all-time -- 778,176 bopd

January 11, 2013: Director's Cut. First month in a long time with month-over-month production actually decreases; production/well also decreases

December 17, 2012: Director's Cut

November 20, 2012: Director's Cut

October 20, 2012: Director's Cut

September 19, 2012: Director's Cut

August 16, 2012: Director's Cut

July 18, 2012: Director's Cut

June 19, 2012: Director's Cut

April 11, 2012: Director's Cut

March 21, 2012: Director's Cut

February 10, 2012: Director's Cut

January 17, 2012: Director's Cut

December 12, 2011: Director's Cut

*****************************

November 12, 2010: Director's Cut

• August, 2010, Oil: 10,195,061 barrels --> 328,873 bbls/day
• September, 2010, Oil: 10,241,510 barrels --> 341,384 bbls/day -- all time record

• August, 2010, producing wells: 5,115
• September, 2010, producing wells: 5,197 -- all time high

• August, 2010, permits: 138
• September, 2010, permits: 167 -- all time high
  

October 11, 2010: Director's Cut

• June, 2010, Oil:  9,434,312 barrels = 314,477 barrels/day
• July, 2010, Oil:  9,952,296 barrels = 321,042 barrels/day (all time high)
• August, 2010, Oil: 10,134,368 barrels = 326,915 barrels/day (all time high)

• June, 2010: Producing Wells = 4,977
• July, 2010: Producing Wells = 5,051 (all time high)
• August, 2010: Producing Wells = 5,115 (all time high)

• June, 2010, Permitting: 128 drilling permits
• July, 2010, Permitting: 145 drilling permits (all time high)
• August, 2010, Permitting: 138 drilling

NDIC Director still voices his concern about EPA regulation.

November 21, 2009: North Dakota state official states that in addition to the Bakken, TFS, and Lodgepole, there is now another formation oil producers are targeting: the Birdbear. Actually that is not news. Oilmen have known about this formation for decades and have targeted it in the past. What is new,  is renewed interest in this formation for horizontal drilling and fracture stimulation. Update, November 2, 2010: Marathon's Mylo Wolding 14-11, a Birdbear well, reported an IP of 39 bopd.

November 16, 2009: North Dakota oil production projected to be 350,000 barrels of oil per day in 2010.

November 13, 2009: More on the recent record North Dakota land lease auction. Some acres in Mountrail County were leased for $8,000/acre. Land exploration companies / producers aren't paying $8,000/acre to watch the barley grow. 2010 is going to be an outstanding year.

November 13, 2009: A relatively new concept for frac'ing has been introduced: tri-frac. Initial discussion here; time will tell whether this amounts to anything. This link, in addition, provides some insight into the status of the Elm Coulee field in Montana (where the current Bakken boom began) and Enerplus which hasn't gotten much notice lately.

November 9, 2009: even the Canadians are betting on the Bakken (southwestern Saskatchewan).

November 9, 2009: ND went over 60 active rigs today (61, to be exact). Most since late 2008. [On November 13, 200, NDIC reported 63 active rigs.]

November 8, 2009: This site (the Million Dollar Way) was cited in the opening line of a Grand Forks Herald story today. You may need to sign in to see the article. You can sign in with your Facebook account. You can see a version of the same article at Yahoo News without having to sign in.

November 6, 2009: More evidence that the oil/gas industry continues to expand: Denver company to expand gas plant; sees continued development of the Williston Basin. This regards a facility in Divide County, the Ambrose Gas Plant southwest of Ambrose.

November 5, 2009: North Dakota state land oil lease auction brings in record amount, $72 million. Previous record: $30 million in 1980; adjusted for inflation: $80 million. 59,000 acres; average, $1,214/acre.

November 4, 2009: The Mountrail County Promoter states that North Dakota, already the 4th leading oil producer in the United States, would produce more oil if pipeline capacity was adequate. The writer notes that there is talk of two more pipelines in the Stanley area: one would take oil into Canada and then back into the states through another pipeline; and the second additional pipeline would take oil out of the local area. I have opined elsewhere that one starts to get the feeling that the Williston Basin could become another "Tulsa" over the next two decades.

November 4, 2009: 18 percent more North Dakotans reporting $1 million (or more) in income; 470 (2008) vs 400 (2007; due to oil income. And some said the Bakken was over-hyped; not these folks.

November 1, 2009: With the Lodgepole, 2010 is going to be a big year for oil in ND.

November 1, 2009: DNR will buy EAC. Denbury: a powerhouse of a company.

October 31, 2009: The news is starting to come fast and furious out of North Dakota; there is almost too much news to report.

We are seeing more Three Forks Sanish action. Encore just reported a 1,500 bopd well with a TFS well with a single frac. Now they are going to offset another well at the same location, but accomplish a 22-stage fracture, and then compare a single frac stimulation with multiple stage fracture stimulation. This is getting very exciting very fast.

Encore is going to add another rig to North Dakota drilling program. There are currently about 56 rigs in North Dakota and almost every producer has announced plans to add more rigs. I think I remember reading EOG plans to increase its fleet of seven rigs to thirteen.

October 28, 2009: ND reported to be #4 in oil production among the US states.ND jumped ahead of Oklahoma few months ago and then past Louisiana in most recent reporting period.

October 25, 2009: Hess moves to Tioga.Hess moved into their new operations complex in Tioga on October 20, 2009. Spokesman says center of operations for Hess in North Dakota is Tioga and thus the move.

October 25, 2009: EOG to ship oil on railroad tankers. EOG should begin shipping oil out of North Dakota via railroad cars starting February, 2010; the loading terminal was built this past year in Stanley, ND. Pipeline capacity has been exceeded by the Bakken production. 


October 25, 2009: Huge Halliburton expansion.Earlier this year Halliburton announced a $20 million project to expand their industrial complex east of Williston. Sanjel's complex was reported to cost $7 million, so local Willistonites can only imagine what a $20 million addition / modification to an existing complex might look like.  The link is here. It should be completed in 2010.

October 25, 2009: North Dakota Defies Predictions With Record Oil Production

The state Industrial Commission reports that North Dakota oil wells pumped an average 226,940 barrels a day in July and 231,252 barrels daily in August, the latest figures available because oil production numbers typically lag at least two months. The previous high of 215,637 barrels a day was set in November 2008.North Dakota produced a record 62.8 million barrels last year, up nearly 18 million barrels from 2007.

October, 2015, Bakken Oil Production Remains Flat Month-Over-Month -- November 25, 2015

The Director's Cut comes out about the middle of the month. When it comes out, the data is for the month prior to the previous month (even I don't understand that); in other words, the "November 15th" Director's Cut was for September data.

So this caught me by surprise. Platts Bentek reported today that October production from both the Eagle Ford and the Bakken remained flat. October production.

Oil production from key shale formations in North Dakota and Texas remained relatively flat in October versus September, according to Platts Bentek.

For the Eagle Ford:

Oil production from the Eagle Ford shale basin in Texas continued flat streak in October, increasing only 6000 barrels per day (b/d), or less than 1%, versus the previous month, the latest analysis showed. 

The average oil production from the South Texas, Eagle Ford basin in October was 1.5 million barrels per day. On a year-over-year basis, that is up close to 65,000 incremental barrels per day, or about 5% higher than October 2014.  

For the Bakken:

The average crude oil production from the North Dakota section of the Bakken in October was 1.2 million b/d, or about 13,000 b/d from year ago levels.

"Much like the Eagle Ford, producers in the Bakken shale are also consistently looking to reduce costs to hold production steady," said Yahya. "In September 2014, 77% of the total wells drilled in the basin were drilled in the core counties (McKenzie, Dunn, Williams and Mountrail) and that metric has since risen to 92% in October 2015. 

Beginning in September 2015, producers have taken this process a step further and are migrating within the core. The number of wells drilled in Dunn and McKenzie counties rose 20% for the same time period. Conversely, the number of wells drilled in Mountrail and Williams counties declined 20%."

Pricing:

The price of oil out of the Bakken formation at Williston, North Dakota, was up 11% between January and October, with an average price of $46.85/b for the first 10 months of 2015, according to the Platts Bakken assessment.

Platts Bakken, however, is down 40% when compared to last year's corresponding month. The wellhead assessment has ranged between $33.35/b and $59.32/b since the beginning of January.

The Platts Bakken, introduced April 22, 2014, is a daily assessment of price for oil closest to the wellhead prior to determination of transportation by rail or pipe. The assessment reflects a sulfur content of 0.2% or less and an American Petroleum Institute (API)** gravity of 42 or less, similar to the nature of North Dakota Light Sweet crude. 

Meanwhile, back to the Director's Cut. The November 13, 2015, Director's Cut reported data for September, 2015:

• 1,162,253 (preliminary)

That compares to Bentek's assessment that:

• the average crude oil production from the North Dakota section of the Bakken in October was 1.2 million b/d.

The NDIC Director's Cut data is for all North Dakota oil production; Bentek characterized this was "Bakken oil production." That needs to be sorted out.

But if accurate (and we will know on/about December 15, 2015, when the next Director's cut comes out) Bentek suggests that there was an increase from 1.16 million bopd in September to 1.2 million bopd in October.

My hunch is that the "1.2 million" figure is a "rounded number."

I May Not Catch The Director's Cut First Thing In The Morning -- June 18, 2015

Updates

June 19, 2015: never mind. The car passed inspection. I should catch the Director's Cut when it is released today.
 

Original Post

Tomorrow morning I plan to take the 2011 Honda Civic in for its annual Texas state-mandated safety inspection. I've been looking forward to this all year. LOL.

Oh, why not?


I will be leaving first thing in the morning. I can't say for sure whether I will have access to wi-fi or whether I will be able to blog.

But the most important thing I might miss is the release of the Director's Cut. So, if I'm not here in the morning, it is not because I have died (although that's always a possibility), it's more likely I am pre-occupied with other business.

The Director's Cut should be at this link.

See how the Director's Cut and this post match.

Watch for the price of Bakken crude oil this month, and the fracklog.

*******************************

US Open: Tiger Woods Will Likely Miss The Cut

The cut line is likely to be "plus 2."

Par is 70. "Plus 2" after two rounds would be 142.

Tiger shot a blistering 80 in today's first round, tied for the 152nd place out of 156.

142 - 80 = 62.

To get to "plus 2" Tiger needs to card no more than a 62 tomorrow, eight under. The best anyone did today was five under. Phil Mickelson shot a "one under" in the first round.

Director's Cut Is Out, March, 2015 Data; Bakken Production Increased; The Number Of Producing Wells At An All-Time High; It Takes Workers To Maintain Producing Wells

Director's Cut is out.

Disclaimer: this update is always done in haste; typographical and factual errors are likely. This is for my use only. If this is important to you, you should go to the source. 

Comments on today's Director's Cut can be found here: link here. 

Oil:

• March, 2015: 1,190,582 bopd (preliminary)
• February, 2015: 1,178,082 bopd (revised, final); 1,177,094 (preliminary)
• January, 2015: 1,191,198 bopd (all time high was last month)
• December, 2014: revised, 1,227,483 bopd (preliminary - 1,227,344 bopd - preliminary, new all-time high)
• delta: 12,500 bopd; increase of 1%.

Producing wells: 

• March, 2015: 12,439 (preliminary -- new all-time high)
• February, 2015: 12,199 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• January, 2015: 12,181 (preliminary -- new all-time high)
• December, 2014: 12,134 (preliminary, new all-time high)
• November, 2014: 11,951 (revised); 11,942 (preliminary, new all-time high)
• October, 2014: 11,892; revised 11,942 (preliminary, new all-time high)
• September, 2014: 11,758 (revised); 11,741 (preliminary; new all-time high)
• August, 2014: 11,565

Permitting: drilling permit activity decreased slightly from February to March and significantly more from March to April as operators positioned themselves for low price 2015 budget scenarios.

• April, 2015: 168
• March, 2015: 190
• February, 2015: 197
• January, 2015: 246
• December, 2014: 251
• November, 2014: 235
• October, 2014: 328
• September, 2014: 261
• August, 2014: 273
• All-time high was 370 in 10/2012
  

Pricing:

• Today, 2015: $46.00
• One month ago, 2015: $36.25 (lowest since February, 2009, and January, 2015) (all-time high was $136.29 7/3/2008)
• April, 2015: $38.33
• March, 2015: $31.47
• February, 2015: $34.11
• January, 2015: $31.41
• December, 2014: $40.74
• November, 2014: $60.61
• October, 2014: $68.94
• Sept, 2014: $74.85
• August, 2014: $78.46

Rig count:

• Today: 82 (lowest since January 2010) (all time high was 218 on 5/29/2012)
• One month ago: 91(lowest since January 2010) (all time high was 218 on 5/29/2012) 
• April: 91
• March: 108
• February: 133
• January: 160
• December, 2014: 181
• November, 2014: 188
• October, 2014: 191
• Sept, 2014: 193
• August, 2014: 193
• July, 2014:  192

Director's comments:

Rig counts continue to fall. Then number of well completions rose sharply from 42 (final) in February to 189 (preliminary) in March. Oil price is by far the biggest driver of the slow-down followed by oil extraction tax triggers, NDIC gas capture goals, and NDIC oil conditioning rules.

Drilling rig count:

• since April, has dropped another 8 as of today
• dropped 17 more from March to April
• dropped 25 from February to March
• dropped 27 from January to February
• dropped 7 from November to December
• dropped 21 from December to January
• dropped 23 from January to date of previous month's Director's Cut

Rig utilization:

• has fallen rapidly
• 20,000+ feet rigs: 45% (down from 50% last month)
• shallow well rigs: 25% (down from 30% last month)

Well completions:

• March: an astounding 189 (preliminary figures)
• February: 42
• January: 63
• December: 173 (preliminary)
• November: 48

Weather:

• no major precipitation events
• 8 days with wind speeds in excess of 35 mph (too high for completion work)
• 1 day with temperatures below -10F

Wells waiting to be completed:

• At end of March, an estimated 880 wells were waiting to be completed, a decrease of 20
• At end of February, an estimated 900 wells waiting to be completed, an increase of 75
• March, 2015, Director's Cut -- 825 wells -- an increase of 75-- January data
• Previous Director's Cut -- 750, a decrease of 25
• Red Queen: 110 - 120 completions per month to maintain 1.2 million bopd

Flaring:

• unchanged at 19%
• Tioga gas plant steady at 83% of full capacity (84% last month)
• expansion of gas gathering from south of Lake Sakakawea is still delayed

Gas capture statistics:

• statewide: 80% (October 2014 target was 74%; January 2015 capture target is 77%)
• FBIR Bakken: 85% 
• percent of flaring was unchanged even as the volume of flaring increased 7.7 million cfd
• FBIR: 83% (up from 79% last month, which was up from 77% the month before) 

Fracking policies/regulations:

BLM revised final regulations for hydraulic fracturing on federal and Indian lands were published in the CFR on 3/26/15 so they will go into effect 6/26/15. North Dakota and Colorado have intervened in the Wyoming legal challenge of the rules a nd plan to seek an injunction or temporary restraining order to prevent the rules going into effect until the case is settled.

Director's Cut Is Out -- January 14, 2015 -- A New Production Record; Slump In Fracking; Flaring Rose

How good is the Bakken? It was interesting that no one has commented on this little bit of trivia. Monthly production hit a new daily production record in November (the data for this month's Director's Cut). That occurred despite a very challenging October when for the first time in a long time, production did not hit a new record due to heavy wind precluding fracking/completion of many wells. So, in November, not only did operators make up for the "loss" in October due to weather but hit another production record in November. 

********************************

The Dickinson Press provides more background to the Director's Cut that was released today. The article discusses the extraction tax incentive: the first trigger and the second trigger.

Helms also noted that because flaring increased in November, "the Department of Mineral Resources will send letters to two operators this week, telling them to curtail production because they're not up to speed on gas capture." It seems the obvious question is who are the two operators.

With regard to rig count:

Rigs are down approximately 25 over the past month to 158, with all but about 10 in the core counties, Helms said. Oil prices have dropped by more than 50 percent since the summer.

He estimated the state needs 130 rigs operating to maintain production, but that the rig count may hit as low as 120 by the third quarter of 2015.

"If we see these kind of prices stick around through the first quarter, then we're gonna drop below that production maintenance rig count for a brief period of time," he said, adding that he expects oil prices to recover by the year's end.

These articles are frequently archived only for subscribers after a short period of time.

There has to be a bit of irony somewhere here when the state will be ordering operators -- two operators in this case -- to curtail production because of flaring issues. Long-time readers know how I feel about the flaring issue. I always said that if they wanted to stop flaring immediately, just stop drilling. I guess that's the route that's being taken. 

**********************************

This month's Director's Cut is incredibly interesting:

• wells waiting to be completed surged (huge story): up to 750 (historically around 400)
• production hits new record despite 750 wells waiting to be completed
• percent of flared gas rises despite 750 wells waiting to be completed
• except for wind on 11 days, weather a minor issue for the Bakken in November
• takeaway still relies on rail (probably more so)
• number of wells hits new record

Note: I believe the 750 wells waiting to be fracked are "today" -- in real time, whereas the production in today's Director's Cut was November production -- a look back. The bullets above may not be entirely accurate; I may be comparing apples to oranges in terms of timing (wells waiting to be fracked -- current, real time; production numbers -- a look back to November, before the price slump had really set in. We should start seeing a significant decline in production in the January production numbers, which we won't see until March, 2015. I wouldn't bet the farm on it, but it's even possible another production record will be hit in December, but after that production should start declining. In my humble opinion, as they say. 

In an earlier post, I suggested three metrics to follow during the slump in oil prices:

• IPs
• active rigs
• wells waiting to be completed

Add a fourth metric: percent natural gas flare.

Link here.

Disclaimer: this update is always done in haste; typographical errors are likely. This is for my use only. If this is important to you, you should go to the source. 

Oil:

• November, 2014: 1,188,258 (revised) 1,187,206 bopd (preliminary, new all-time high)
• October, 2014: 1,182,174 bopd (preliminary); 1,183,515 bopd (revised)
• September, 2014: 1,186,228 (revised); 1,184,635 (new all-time high)
• delta: 3,691(daily bopd)
• 4,743 / 1,186,228 =  0.4% (updated after revised data came in)

Producing wells: 

• November, 2014: 11,942 (preliminary, new all-time high)
• October, 2014: 11,892; revised 11,942 (preliminary, new all-time high)
• September, 2014: 11,758 (revised); 11,741 (preliminary; new all-time high)
• August, 2014: 11,565
• July, 2014: 11,293
• June, 2014: 11,079  

Permitting:

• December, 2014: 251
• November, 2014: 235
• October, 2014: 328
• September, 2014: 261
• August, 2014: 273
• July, 2014: 265
• June, 2014: 247
• All-time high was 370 in 10/2012
  

Pricing:

• Today, 2015: $29.25 (lowest since December 2008) (all-time high was $136.29 7/3/2008)
• December: $40.74
• November: $60.61
• October, 2014: $68.94
• Sept, 2014: $74.85
• August, 2014: $78.46
• July, 2014: $86.20

Rig count:

• Today: 156 (lowest since Oct 2010) (all time high was 218 on 5/29/2012) 
• December, 2014: 181
• November, 2014: 188
• October, 2014: 191
• Sept, 2014: 193
• August, 2014: 193
• July, 2014:  192
• June, 2014: 190

Director's comments:

• the number of well completions decreased from 145 (final) in October to 39 (preliminary) in November 
• operators report postponing completion work to avoid high initial oil production at very low prices and achieve NDIC gas capture goals
• no major precipitation events; 11 days with winds in excess of 35 mph (too high for completion work)
• 7 days with temperatures below -10F

Back on December 13, 2014, I suggested exactly that: the operators would stop fracking. Look at this: generally there were about 400 wells waiting for completion, then it jumped to 450, then 650, and now 775, an increase of 125 in the past month. That is quite astounding. (Also, December 18, 2014; and, December 16, 2014.)

I opined somewhere that the best way to cut flaring was to stop drilling. So where are we on flaring? From the Director's Cut:

The price of natural gas delivered to Northern Border at Watford City is down $0.28 to $2.70/MCF. This results in a current oil to gas price ratio of 11 to 1.

The percentage of gas flared rose to 25%.

The Tioga gas plant remained below 70% of full capacity due to delayed expansion of gas gathering from south of Lake Sakakawea. The October capture percentage was 75% with the daily volume of gas flared from October to November increasing 36.5 MMCFD.

The historical high flared percent was 36% in 09/2011.

Gas capture statistics are as follows:

• Statewide 75%
• Statewide Bakken 75%
• Non-FBIR Bakken 75%
• FBIR Bakken 74%
• October 2014 capture target =74%
• January 2015 capture target =77%

The percentage of natural gas flared in October was 22%; in November, the percentage of gas flared rose to 25%. And that's with 750 wells waiting to be completed.

It would be interesting to know more about the "delay" in expanding the gas gathering "from south of Lake Sakakawea." Is this federal bureaucratic red tape on Fort Berthold?

Takeaway still relies on rail.

Rigs are coming down quickly: utilization rates for deep drilling rigs (generally 90% or better) are now at 80%; shallow well rigs, about 50%.

Permitting peaked in October, as is the general rule, but it is noteworthy the increase in permitting in December, 2014, over November, 2014.

Can you imagine the daily production coming out of the Bakken if those 750 wells were completed, or if "we" just got back to "normal," of having about 400 wells waiting to be completed. In addition, the wells keep getting better and better.

The Tyler, from NDIC production numbers released along with the Director's Cut:

MARATHON OIL COMPANY WILDCAT - TYLER

                                                                           oil produced       barrels of water    days   Runs  gas Prod.   gas sold

POWELL 31-27TH NWNE 27 135 99 SLP 26335                     57            1330             26        0             160              0

RUNDLE TRUST 21-29TH NWNW 29 136 99 SLP 26794        0               10                 1         0                9               0

TOTAL : 2 wells 57 1340 27 0 169 0

Director's Cut -- April, 2015, Data

Bakken price in May: $44.70
Fracklog: 925 (an increase of 45); I had thought it would have been closer to 1,000
Completions: 94 -- a very, very low number; many wells going to SI/NC status
To maintain production near 1.2 million bopd: 110 - 120 completions needed each month
Statewide flaring: 18%

Director's Cut is out.

I track the "cuts" here. 

Disclaimer: this update is always done in haste; typographical and factual errors are likely. This is for my use only. If this is important to you, you should go to the source. 

Comments on today's Director's Cut can be found here: link here. 

Oil:

• April, 2015: 1,168,502 (prelminary)
• March, 2015: 1,190,502 (final); 1,190,582 bopd (preliminary)
• February, 2015: 1,178,082 bopd (revised, final); 1,177,094 (preliminary)
• January, 2015: 1,191,198 bopd (all time high was last month)
• December, 2014: revised, 1,227,483 bopd (preliminary - 1,227,344 bopd - preliminary, new all-time high)
• delta:

Producing wells: 

• April, 2015: 12,537 (preliminary -- new all-time high)
• March, 2015: 12,443 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• February, 2015: 12,199 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• January, 2015: 12,181 (preliminary -- new all-time high)
• December, 2014: 12,134 (preliminary, new all-time high)
• November, 2014: 11,951 (revised); 11,942 (preliminary, new all-time high)
• October, 2014: 11,892; revised 11,942 (preliminary, new all-time high)
• September, 2014: 11,758 (revised); 11,741 (preliminary; new all-time high)
• August, 2014: 11,565

Permitting: drilling permit activity decreased slightly from February to March and significantly more from March to April as operators positioned themselves for low price 2015 budget scenarios.

• May, 2015: 150
• April, 2015: 168
• March, 2015: 190
• February, 2015: 197
• January, 2015: 246
• December, 2014: 251
• November, 2014: 235
• October, 2014: 328
• September, 2014: 261
• August, 2014: 273
• All-time high was 370 in 10/2012
  

Pricing:

• Today, 2015: $48.00
• May, 2015: $44.70
• April, 2015: $38.33; $36.25 (lowest since February, 2009, and January, 2015) (all-time high was $136.29 7/3/2008)
• March, 2015: $31.47
• February, 2015: $34.11
• January, 2015: $31.41
• December, 2014: $40.74
• November, 2014: $60.61
• October, 2014: $68.94
• Sept, 2014: $74.85
• August, 2014: $78.46

Rig count:

• Today: 79 - lowest since December, 2009 (all time high was 218 on 5/29/2012)
• April: 91 (lowest since January 2010)
• March: 108
• February: 133
• January: 160
• December, 2014: 181
• November, 2014: 188
• October, 2014: 191
• Sept, 2014: 193
• August, 2014: 193
• July, 2014:  192

Director's comments:

Rig counts continue to fall. The active rig count is 5 to 8 rigs below what operators indicated would be their 2015 average if oil price remained below $65/bbl. The number of well completions dropped sharply from 244 (final) in March to 94 (preliminary) in April.

Drilling rig count:

• dropped 8 from April to May, has since fallen 4 more from May to today
• dropped 17 more from March to April 8
• dropped 25 from February to March
• dropped 27 from January to February
• dropped 7 from November to December
• dropped 21 from December to January
• dropped 23 from January to date of previous month's Director's Cut

Rig utilization:

• no change
• 20,000+ feet rigs: 45% 
• shallow well rigs: 25% 

Well completions:

• April: 94 (preliminary -- astounding drop)
• March: an astounding 194 (final)
• February: 42
• January: 63
• December: 173 (preliminary)
• November: 48

Weather:

• one significant precipitation even in Dickinson
• 10 days with wind speeds in excess of 35 mph (too high for completion work)
• no days with temperatures below -10F

Wells waiting to be completed:

• At end of April, an estimated 925 wells were waiting to be completed, an increase of 45
• At end of March, an estimated 880 wells were waiting to be completed, a decrease of 20
• At end of February, an estimated 900 wells waiting to be completed, an increase of 75
• March, 2015, Director's Cut -- 825 wells -- an increase of 75-- January data
• Previous Director's Cut -- 750, a decrease of 25
• Red Queen: 110 - 120 completions per month to maintain 1.2 million bopd

Flaring:

• down slightly at 18%
• Tioga gas plant steady at 84% of full capacity (83% last month)
• expansion of gas gathering from south of Lake Sakakawea is still delayed

Gas capture statistics:

• statewide: 82% (October 2014 target was 74%; January 2015 capture target is 77%)
• FBIR Bakken: 88% (83% last month; 79% before that; 77% the month before)
• percent of flaring was unchanged; the volume of flaring decreased 13.9 MMCFD (huge change; last month, there was an increase of 7.7 MMCFD)

Fracking policies/regulations:

BLM revised final regulations for hydraulic fracturing on federal and Indian lands were published in the CFR on 3/26/15 so they will go into effect 6/26/15. North Dakota and Colorado have intervened in the Wyoming legal challenge of the rules a nd plan to seek an injunction or temporary restraining order to prevent the rules going into effect until the case is settled.

Director's Cut Is Out; Production Month-Over-Month Unchanged -- February, 2016, Data

See North Dakota natural gas production / milestone: http://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2016/04/directors-cut-is-out-february-2016-data.html.

See John Kemp's tweets: http://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2016/04/tweeting-now-from-john-kemp-regarding.html.

Note: as a reminder, the summary of the Director's Cut was significantly truncated beginning this calendar year. For those wishing to see trends over time, one will have to go back to summaries posted for previous calendar years.

See disclaimer below.

Link here.

The Director's Cut is out, April 15, 2016, with February, 2016, data.

North Dakota oil production for the month of February decreased by about 2.5%, almost a 30,000 bopd decrease compared to the previous month, January, 2016.

Because so much is carried forward from previous posts, there are likely to be errors in previous data; I would go to the source if this information is important to you.

Top four producing oil fields in the Bakken at this link.

Index of previous summaries of the Director's Cut is here.

***********************************

Director's Cut 

February 2016 Data

February, 2016, data is presented here.

Disclaimer: this update is always done in haste; typographical and factual errors are likely. This is for my use only. If this is important to you, you should go to the source. 

Note: facts and opinions are interspersed in the note below. Do not make any investment or financial decisions based on what is posted below; there will be factual and typographical errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

Important data points:

• Today, pricing: $31.25
• the pricing of Bakken on the day the previous Director's Cut was posted: $26.25
• Bakken (ND sweet crude) price in March, 2016:  $26.62
• Bakken (ND sweet crude) price in February, 2016: $18.07
• Bakken (ND sweet crude) price in January, 2016: $21.13
• Fracklog: 907 (down from 945 in January)
• estimated number of inactive wells: 1,439
• Statewide flaring: 11% (down from 13% last month) -- this is really quite incredible, considering

Delta, crude oil production:  (needs to be updated)

• 1,118,333 - 1,122,462 =  4,129 bopd
• -4,100 / 1,122,100 = 0.4% decrease month-over-month

Oil:  

• February, 2016:  1,118,333 (preliminary)
• January, 2016: 1,122,462
• December, 2015:1,152,696 (final, revised)
• November, 2015: 1,181,787 (final, revised)
• October, 2015: 1,171,119 (final, revised)
• September, 2015:  1,162,159 (final, revised)
• August, 2015: 1,187,631 (final, revised)
• July, 2015: 1,206,996 (final, revised) 
• June, 2015: 1,211,328 (final)(second highest; highest was December, 2014)
• May, 2015: 1,202,615 (final)
• April, 2015: 1,169,045 (final)
• March, 2015: 1,190,502 (final); 1,190,582 bopd (preliminary)
• February, 2015: 1,178,082 bopd (revised, final); 1,177,094 (preliminary)
• January, 2015: 1,191,198 bopd (all time high was last month)
• December, 2014: revised, 1,227,483 bopd (all-time high)

Producing wells:

• February, 2016:  13,012 (preliminary)
• January, 2016: 13,141
• December, 2015: 13,128 (final revised; increase from last month)
• November, 2015: 13,100 (final revised, decreased from last month)
• October, 2015: 13,190 (final revised, new all-time high)
• September, 2015: 13,036 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• August, 2015: 13,031 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• July, 2015: 12,965 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• June, 2015: 12,868 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• May, 2015: 12,679 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• April, 2015: 12,545 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• March, 2015: 12,443 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• February, 2015: 12,199 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• January, 2015: 12,181 (preliminary -- new all-time high)
• December, 2014: 12,134 (preliminary, new all-time high)
• November, 2014: 11,951 (revised); 11,942 (preliminary, new all-time high)
• October, 2014: 11,892; revised 11,942 (preliminary, new all-time high)

Permitting: 

• March, 2016: 56 drilling
• February, 2016: 70 drilling
• January, 2016: 78 drilling
• December, 2015: 95 (steep decline)
• November, 2015: 125
• October, 2015: 152
• September, 2015: 154
• August, 2015: 153
• July, 2015: 233
• June, 2015: 192
• May, 2015: 150
• April, 2015: 168
• March, 2015: 190
• February, 2015: 197
• January, 2015: 246
• All-time high was 370 in 10/2012
  

Pricing: 

• April 15, 2016: $31.25
• March 2016: $26.62
• January, 2016: $21.13
• February, 2016: $18.07
• February 17, 2016: $16.50 (post-boom low?)
• January, 2016: $21.13
• December, 2015: $27.57
• November, 2015: $32.16
• October, 2015: $34.37
• September, 2015: $31.17
• August, 2015: $29.52
• July, 2015: $39.41
• June, 2015: 47.73
• May, 2015: $44.70
• April, 2015: $38.33; $36.25 (lowest since February, 2009, and January, 2015) (all-time high was $136.29 7/3/2008)
• March, 2015: $31.47
• February, 2015: $34.11
• January, 2015: $31.41
• December, 2014: $40.74

Rig count:

• Today: 29
• March: 32
• February: 40
• January, 2016: 52
• December: 64
• November: 64
• October: 68
• September: 71
• August: 74
• July: 73
• June: 78
• May: 83
• April: 91 (lowest since January 2010)
• March: 108
• February: 133
• January, 2015: 160
• December, 2014: 181

Director's comments:  [see source] (needs to be updated)

The number of well completions fell significantly month-over-month: 71 (final) in January to 63 (preliminary) in February.

Well completions:

• February: 62 (preliminary)
• January, 2016: 71 (final -- significant difference from preliminary figure of 82)
• December: 81 (final)
• November: 77 (significant difference from preliminary figure)
• October: 43 (final)
• September: 123 (final)
• August: 115 (final)
• July: 119 (final)
• June: 149 (final)
• May: 116 (final)
• April: 102 (final -- astounding drop)
• March: an astounding 194 (final)
• February: 42
• January: 63
• December: 173 (preliminary)
• November: 48

Flaring:  (needs to be updated)

• capture target, current, January - December, 2015: 77% (had been 80%)
• capture target, April, 2016 - October, 2016: 80% (had been 90%)
• capture target, November, 2016 - October, 2018: 85%
• capture target, November, 2018 - October, 2020: 88%
• capture target, after October, 2020: 91%
• flaring capture percentage in January, 2016: 87%

Director's Cut With October, 2015, Data Is Out -- December 9, 2015

Link here.

The Director's Cut is out, December 9, 2015, with October, 2015, data.

North Dakota oil production for the month of October actually increased by about 0.6%, almost a 7,000 bopd increase compared to the previous month, September, 2015. The EIA estimated the entire US crude oil production would decrease by about 45,000 bopd in October, compared to September. [Reminder: the EIA estimate is for October crude oil production; the Director's Cut released today is also October data.]

Because so much is carried forward from previous posts, there are likely to be errors in previous data; I would go to the source if this information is important to you.

Director's Cut

October, 2015, Data

October, 2015, data here.

I track the "cuts" here. 

Disclaimer: this update is always done in haste; typographical and factual errors are likely. This is for my use only. If this is important to you, you should go to the source. 

Note: facts and opinions are interspersed in the note below. Do not make any investment or financial decisions based on what is posted below; there will be factual and typographical errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source. 

The October data is posted at this link: https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/directorscut/directorscut-2015-12-09.pdf

Important data points:

• Today, pricing: $27.00
• Bakken price in November: $32.16
• Fracklog: 975 (105 less than at end of September, previous reporting period)
• Completions: 43 (123 in September, 2015) -- more wells going to SI/NC status
• Statewide flaring: 14% (big improvement from previous month, 20%) 

Delta, crude oil production: 

• 1,168,950 - 1,162,159 = 6,791
• 6,791 / 1,162,159 = 0.58% increase month-over-month

Oil:  

• October, 2015: 1,168,950 (preliminary)
• September, 2015:  1,162,159 (final, revised)
• August, 2015: 1,187,631 (final, revised)
• July, 2015: 1,206,996 (final, revised) 
• June, 2015: 1,211,328 (final)(second highest; highest was December, 2014)
• May, 2015: 1,202,615 (final)
• April, 2015: 1,169,045 (final)
• March, 2015: 1,190,502 (final); 1,190,582 bopd (preliminary)
• February, 2015: 1,178,082 bopd (revised, final); 1,177,094 (preliminary)
• January, 2015: 1,191,198 bopd (all time high was last month)
• December, 2014: revised, 1,227,483 bopd (all-time high)

Producing wells:

• October, 2015: 13,174 (preliminary, new all-time high if it holds)
• September, 2015: 13,036 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• August, 2015: 13,031 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• July, 2015: 12,965 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• June, 2015: 12,868 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• May, 2015: 12,679 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• April, 2015: 12,545 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• March, 2015: 12,443 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• February, 2015: 12,199 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• January, 2015: 12,181 (preliminary -- new all-time high)
• December, 2014: 12,134 (preliminary, new all-time high)
• November, 2014: 11,951 (revised); 11,942 (preliminary, new all-time high)
• October, 2014: 11,892; revised 11,942 (preliminary, new all-time high)

Permitting: 

• November, 2015: 154
• October, 2015: 152
• September, 2015: 154
• August, 2015: 153
• July, 2015: 233
• June, 2015: 192
• May, 2015: 150
• April, 2015: 168
• March, 2015: 190
• February, 2015: 197
• January, 2015: 246
• December, 2014: 251
• November, 2014: 235
• All-time high was 370 in 10/2012
  

Pricing: 

• Today, 2015: $27.00 (low-point since Bakken play began was $22.00 in December 2008)
• November, 2015: $32.16
• October, 2015: $34.37
• September, 2015: $31.17
• August, 2015: $29.52
• July, 2015: $39.41
• June, 2015: 47.73
• May, 2015: $44.70
• April, 2015: $38.33; $36.25 (lowest since February, 2009, and January, 2015) (all-time high was $136.29 7/3/2008)
• March, 2015: $31.47
• February, 2015: $34.11
• January, 2015: $31.41
• December, 2014: $40.74
• November, 2014: $60.61

Rig count:

• Today:  65 - lowest since November, 2009, when it was 63 (all time high was 218 on 5/29/2012)
• November: 64
• October: 68
• September: 71
• August: 74
• July: 73
• June: 78
• May: 83
• April: 91 (lowest since January 2010)
• March: 108
• February: 133
• January: 160
• December, 2014: 181
• November, 2014: 188

Director's comments:  [see source]

The number of well completions fell substantially from 123 (final) in September to 43 (preliminary) in October.

Drilling rig count: 

• rig count decreased 3 from September to October, decreased 1 from October to November, and increased 1 so far this month 
• dropped 5 from June to July
• dropped 5 from May to June
• dropped 8 from April to May
• dropped 17 from March to April 8
• dropped 25 February to March
• dropped 27 from January to February
• dropped 7 from November to December
• dropped 21 from December to January
• dropped 23 from January to date of previous month's Director's Cut

Well completions: 

• October 43 (preliminary)
• September 123 (final)
• August: 115 (final)
• July: 119 (final)
• June: 149 (final)
• May: 116 (final)
• April: 102 (final -- astounding drop)
• March: an astounding 194 (final)
• February: 42
• January: 63
• December: 173 (preliminary)
• November: 48

Weather: 

• no significant precipitation events
• 8 days with wind speeds in excess of 35 mph (too high for completion work)
• no days with temperatures below -10F

Wells waiting to be completed:  

• At the end of October, an estimated 975 wells waiting to be completed; 105 less than at the end of September (per NDIC) -- 1,091 - 975 = 116
• At the end of September, an estimated 1,091 wells were waiting to be completed; 98 more than the end of August (per NDIC)
• At end of August, an estimate 993 wells waiting to be completed; 79 more than end of July
• At end of July, an estimated 914 wells waiting to be completed, 70 more than at end of June
• At end of June, an estimated 844 wells waiting to be completed
• At end of May, an estimated 925 wells were waiting to be completed, no change
• At end of April, an estimated 925 wells were waiting to be completed, an increase of 45
• At end of March, an estimated 880 wells were waiting to be completed, a decrease of 20
• At end of February, an estimated 900 wells waiting to be completed, an increase of 75
• March, 2015, Director's Cut -- 825 wells -- an increase of 75-- January data
• Previous Director's Cut -- 750, a decrease of 25

Flaring: 

• capture target, current, January - December, 2015: 77% (had been 80%)
• capture target, April, 2016 - October, 2016: 80% (had been 90%)
• capture target, November, 2016 - October, 2018: 85%
• capture target, November, 2018 - October, 2020: 88%
• capture target, after October, 2020: 91%
• flaring capture percentage in October: 86%; percent flared 14%
• finally, the Tioga gas plant was down to 85% capacity (down slightly from previous month) capacity (92% last month; 90% prior; and, 93% previous to that)
• the Lake Sakakawea gas gathering expansion project was approved, but it was approved too late for the 2015 construction season, resulting in a one-year delay.

Gas capture statistics:  

• statewide: 86% (October 2014 target was 74%; CY 2015 capture target is 77%)
• FBIR Bakken: 86% (was 83% last month)

Fracking policies/regulations: (see source linked above; way too much to post)

Director's Cut For September, 2015, Data Is Out -- November 13, 2015; The Red Queen Has Not Fallen Off The Treadmill

The Director's Cut is out, November 13, 2015, with September, 2015, data.

North Dakota oil production for the month of September decreased by a little over 2%, a little over 25,000 bopd, compared to the previous month, August, 2015. The EIA estimated the entire US crude oil production would decrease by about 45,000 bopd in October, compared to September. [Be careful: the EIA estimate is for October crude oil production; the Director's Cut released today is September data.]

Because so much is carried forward from previous posts, there are likely to be errors in previous data; I would go to the source if this information is important to you.

Director's Cut

September, 2015, Data

September, 2015, data here.

I track the "cuts" here. 

Disclaimer: this update is always done in haste; typographical and factual errors are likely. This is for my use only. If this is important to you, you should go to the source. 

Note: facts and opinions are interspersed in the note below. Do not make any investment or financial decisions based on what is posted below; there will be factual and typographical errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source. 

The September data is posted at this link: https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/directorscut/directorscut-2015-11-13.pdf

Important data points:

• Today, pricing: $31.25
• Bakken price in October: $34.37
• Fracklog: 1,019 (98 more than at end of August, previous reporting period)
• Completions: 115 (119 in July, 2015) -- more wells going to SI/NC status
• Statewide flaring: 20% (no change from previous month) 

Delta, crude oil production: 

• 1,162,253 - 1,187,631 = - 25,378
• 25,378 / 1,187,631 = 2.14% decrease month-over-month

Oil:  

• September, 2015:  1,162,253 (preliminary)
• August, 2015: 1,187,631 (final, revised)
• July, 2015: 1,206,996 (final, revised) 
• June, 2015: 1,211,328 (final)(second highest; highest was December, 2014)
• May, 2015: 1,202,615 (final)
• April, 2015: 1,169,045 (final)
• March, 2015: 1,190,502 (final); 1,190,582 bopd (preliminary)
• February, 2015: 1,178,082 bopd (revised, final); 1,177,094 (preliminary)
• January, 2015: 1,191,198 bopd (all time high was last month)
• December, 2014: revised, 1,227,483 bopd (preliminary - 1,227,344 bopd - preliminary, new all-time high)

Producing wells:

• September, 2015: 13,025 (preliminary, all time high was August, 2015)
• August, 2015: 13,031 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• July, 2015: 12,965 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• June, 2015: 12,868 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• May, 2015: 12,679 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• April, 2015: 12,545 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• March, 2015: 12,443 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• February, 2015: 12,199 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• January, 2015: 12,181 (preliminary -- new all-time high)
• December, 2014: 12,134 (preliminary, new all-time high)
• November, 2014: 11,951 (revised); 11,942 (preliminary, new all-time high)
• October, 2014: 11,892; revised 11,942 (preliminary, new all-time high)
• September, 2014: 11,758 (revised); 11,741 (preliminary; new all-time high)
• August, 2014: 11,565

Permitting: 

• October, 2015: 152
• September, 2015: 154
• August, 2015: 153
• July, 2015: 233
• June, 2015: 192
• May, 2015: 150
• April, 2015: 168
• March, 2015: 190
• February, 2015: 197
• January, 2015: 246
• December, 2014: 251
• November, 2014: 235
• October, 2014: 328
• September, 2014: 261
• August, 2014: 273
• All-time high was 370 in 10/2012
  

Pricing: 

• Today, 2015: $31.25
• October, 2015: $34.37
• September, 2015: $31.17
• August, 2015: $29.52
• July, 2015: $39.41
• June, 2015: 47.73
• May, 2015: $44.70
• April, 2015: $38.33; $36.25 (lowest since February, 2009, and January, 2015) (all-time high was $136.29 7/3/2008)
• March, 2015: $31.47
• February, 2015: $34.11
• January, 2015: $31.41
• December, 2014: $40.74
• November, 2014: $60.61
• October, 2014: $68.94
• Sept, 2014: $74.85
• August, 2014: $78.46

Rig count:

• Today:  64 - lowest since November, 2009, when it was 63 (all time high was 218 on 5/29/2012)
• October 68
• September: 71
• August: 74
• July: 73
• June: 78
• May: 83
• April: 91 (lowest since January 2010)
• March: 108
• February: 133
• January: 160
• December, 2014: 181
• November, 2014: 188
• October, 2014: 191
• Sept, 2014: 193
• August, 2014: 193
• July, 2014:  192

Director's comments:  [see source]

The number of well completions rose slightly from 115 (final) in August to 123 (preliminary) in September.

Drilling rig count: 

• rig count decreased 3 from August to September, decreased 3 from September to October, and dropped 4 more so far this month 
• dropped 5 from June to July
• dropped 5 from May to June
• dropped 8 from April to May
• dropped 17 from March to April 8
• dropped 25 February to March
• dropped 27 from January to February
• dropped 7 from November to December
• dropped 21 from December to January
• dropped 23 from January to date of previous month's Director's Cut

Well completions: 

• September 123 (preliminary)
• August: 115 (final)
• July: 119 (final)
• June: 149 (final)
• May: 116 (final)
• April: 102 (final -- astounding drop)
• March: an astounding 194 (final)
• February: 42
• January: 63
• December: 173 (preliminary)
• November: 48

Weather: 

• one significant precipitation event in the Williston area and one in the Minot area
• 5 days with wind speeds in excess of 35 mph (too high for completion work)
• no days with temperatures below -10F

Wells waiting to be completed:  

• At the end of September, an estimated 1,091 wells were waiting to be completed; 98 more than the end of August
• At end of August, an estimate 993 wells waiting to be completed; 79 more than end of July
• At end of July, an estimated 914 wells waiting to be completed, 70 more than at end of June
• At end of June, an estimated 844 wells waiting to be completed
• At end of May, an estimated 925 wells were waiting to be completed, no change
• At end of April, an estimated 925 wells were waiting to be completed, an increase of 45
• At end of March, an estimated 880 wells were waiting to be completed, a decrease of 20
• At end of February, an estimated 900 wells waiting to be completed, an increase of 75
• March, 2015, Director's Cut -- 825 wells -- an increase of 75-- January data
• Previous Director's Cut -- 750, a decrease of 25
• Red Queen: 110 - 120 completions per month to maintain 1.2 million bopd

Flaring: 

• capture target, current, January - December, 2015: 77% (actual, 80%)
• capture target, April, 2016 - October, 2016: 80%(had been 90%)
• capture target, November, 2016 - October, 2018: 85%
• capture target, November, 2018 - October, 2020: 88%
• capture target, after October, 2020: 91%
• flaring today: 19%, down from 20% the previous month
• finally, the Tioga gas plant was down to 90% capacity (down slightly from previous month) capacity (92% last month; 90% prior; and, 93% previous to that)
• the Lake Sakakawea gas gathering expansion project was approved, but it was approved too late for the 2015 construction season, resulting in a one-year delay.

Gas capture statistics:  

• statewide: 81% (October 2014 target was 74%; CY 2015 capture target is 77%)
• FBIR Bakken: 83% (was 77% last month)

Fracking policies/regulations: (see source linked above; way too much to post)

Director's Cut -- April, 2021, Data -- Richard Branson In Space -- Notes From Everywhere -- Including The Bakken -- July 11, 2021

Success: Richard Branson in space.

• Sir Richard Branson, after nearly 17 years of Virgin Galactic development, achieved his dream and reached space on Sunday.
• The company’s spacecraft VSS Unity launched above the skies of New Mexico on Sunday, with two pilots guiding the vehicle carrying the billionaire founder and three Virgin Galactic employees.
• Branson is the first of the billionaire space company founders to ride his own spacecraft.
• Pilots Dave Mackay and Michael Masucci flew Unity. Alongside Branson in the spacecraft’s cabin was chief astronaut trainer Beth Moses, lead operations engineer Colin Bennett, and VP of government affairs Sirisha Bandla. Both Mackay and Masucci have previously flown to space, as well as Moses and pilots C.J. Sturckow and Mark Stucky.
• • The U.S. officially considers pilots who have flown above 80 kilometers (or about 262,000 feet) to be astronauts.
  • VSS Unity is designed to hold up to six passengers along with the two pilots. The company has about 600 reservations for tickets on future flights, sold at prices between $200,000 and $250,000 each.

Was there any ever any doubt: Biden's plans to raise taxes on corporations and the wealthy are losing momentum. The argument that is carrying the day: why ruin a good thing? LOL. 

California: this is a long story -- short but sweet -- go to the links to sort it out --

• California recently enacted new regulations forcing berthing ships to switch to shore-based electric power;
• berthing ships must shut off diesel engines while in port; purpose: eliminate "emissions"
• no sooner did the regulations go into effect (conflicting dates here) when Governor Newsom had to suspend them temporarily
• California needs all the electricity it can get this summer
• now, huge Oregon wildfire threatens three separate transmission lines into California; link here;
  
• think about that: the supply/demand picture for California electricity is so close, regulations affecting berthing ships can impact entire grid
  
• links here:
• the regulation, August 27, 2020;
• FAQs, the regulation, undated;
• op-ed, undated?
• the story:

California Gov. Gavin Newsom signed an executive order Saturday to free up additional energy capacity for the power grid during the heat wave and growing fire threat. The order allows ships berthed at California ports to use auxiliary engines rather than shore power to relieve pressure on the electricity system.

California: Shell to bow out of California joint venture with Exxon.  

Shell is reportedly planning to quit its California-based joint venture with fellow oil supermajor ExxonMobil as it looks to accelerate its transition away from fossil fuels. 

Four sources told Reuters that the FTSE blue chip had informed Exxon that it intended to exit subsidiary Aera Energy, in which it holds a 52 percent stake. The firm did not respond to a request for comment. 

 If it does so, it will be the latest in a number of divestments the Anglo-Dutch giant has made this year amid growing pressure to up its climate commitments. Shell has already sold refineries in Washington State and Houston, and is also mulling getting rid of its assets on shale shelf the Permian Basin.

[Aera was mentioned at the blog once before, April 25, 2021.]

Director's Cut, April 2021:

• I keep hearing that Bakken production is falling;
• had to review April's data (had forgotten it);
• turns out I had posted the Director's Cut but never posted the usual data;
• a combination of ennui, exhaustion, nothing remarkable in the report;
• so, here's the April, 2021, data: production increased month-over-month
• link here (pdf);

Director's Cut, May 2021:

• the NDIC recently postponed the date for the May, 2021, Director's Cut release;
• now scheduled for July 20, 2021;
• normally released by the 15th of each, this is the latest, I believe, that the Director's Cut has ever been released
• I can think of any number of reasons why the report is delayed
• link here (pdf).

Iraq: will stumble through 2021, but $70-oil is not enough to stabilize Iraq for the long term;
link to one of the best, Charles Kennedy;

• in addition, western companies moving out -- being politically correct, it appears;
• allows Russia, China, Iran to move in
• wonder if this is part of the current administration's long-term plan? LOL.

WTI: when we last checked, WTI was up 2.22%, up $1.62; and trading at $74.56.

The Saudi model: maybe Joe Biden could take a page from Saudi Arabia -- cap gasoline prices at the pump. 

Investing: a contrarian approach. Link to Alex Kimani. Nothing necessarily new but does provide a pretty nice wrap-up of current events regarding US shale, hedging, and the OPEC+ "spat."

Diamondbacks at Dodgers: slugfest; final two-run homer broke unwritten rule in baseball. Is nothing sacred any more? 

Haters will hate: and there's a lot of hate for California. Over at ZeroHedge but I believe the source is Instragram, for what that's worth. But probably more credible than The New York Times. Just saying. Be sure to read the comments. Of the fifty states, there's only one state that hates itself more than any other state. Other data points to note:

• North Dakota folks hate South Dakota
• South Dakota: the feeling is mutual
• practically the entire west hates California
• Texas hates Oklahoma (must be football, and the casinos)
• most of New England hates Massachusetts
• guess who New Jersey hates

Domino chain: the perfect chain doesn't exist. Link here.

Well said, but there are many, many more examples. Link here. Note who posted this.

Don't make a threat you "can't" keep. Apple threatens to "leave" Great Britain if court rules that Apple needs to pay taxes/fees on technology it uses. 

Green energy: the US south shipping wood chips to Europe. What a deal. What is surprising about the story? It's being reported by CNN.

ND Crude Oil Production: Bentek Prediction Vs NDIC Monthly Reports -- January 28, 2016

It can be a little confusing to "keep track" of what month of data we are talking about.

The NDIC Director's Cut that comes out every month reports the crude oil production of not the preceding month, but the month before that. The NDIC Director's Cut comes out on/about the 15th of every month, and provides crude oil production of not the preceding month but the month prior to that.

The January 15, 2016, Director's Cut provided crude oil production data for November, 2015. In that report, crude oil production in North Dakota actually increased a bit, month-over-month:

Daily oil production (bopd) as reported by the NDIC:

• November, 2015: 1,176,314 (preliminary)
• October, 2015: 1,171,119 (final, revised) 
• Delta:  5,195/ 1,171,119 = 0.44% increase month-over-month

Yesterday, Platts reported that "shale oil production in the Bakken, Eagle Ford was little changed in December, according to Platts Bentek."

Oil production from the Eagle Ford shale basin in Texas was relatively unchanged in December, increasing about 11,000 barrels per day (b/d), or less than 1%, versus the previous month, the latest analysis showed. This marks the first time since March 2015 that the Eagle Ford shale did not decline. Conversely, crude oil production in the North Dakota section of the Bakken shale formation of the Williston Basin dipped by less than 1% month over month in December, or about 9,000 b/d, continuing the trend of marginal decline that began in the summer.

The average oil production from the South Texas, Eagle Ford basin in December was 1.5 million barrels per day. On a year-over-year basis, that is down about 7%, or about 110,000 barrels per day, from December 2014, according to Sami Yahya, Platts Bentek energy analyst. The average crude oil production from the North Dakota section of the Bakken in November was 1.2 million b/d, about 6% lower than year ago levels.

My understanding is that Bentek's data is based on analysis of many data points.

This was the data from the NDIC Director's Cut:

• November, 2014: 1,188,258 bopd
• December, 2014: 1,227,483 bopd
• November 2015: 1,176,314 bopd (preliminary figures; final figures will be released in February, 2016)

From the linked Platt's article:

• November, 2014: 1,276,596:  (1,276,596 - 1,200,000)/1,276,596 = a 6% decline
• December, 2015: 1,176,314 bopd (NDIC preliminary data for November) - 9,000 bopd (Bentek data, decrease month over month) = 1,167,314 bopd for December, 2015, based on "mixing) NDIC data with Bentek data.

From the linked Platts report, "crude oil production in the North Dakota section of the Bakken shale formation of the Williston Basin dipped by less than 1% month over month in December, or about 9,000 b/d, continuing the trend of marginal decline that began in the summer."

1% of "what" = 9,000 bopd?  9,000 / 0.01 = 900,000 bopd.

Complicating things, of course, is that in the linked Platts article, the numbers are rounded.

We'll just have to wait to see what the NDIC Director's Cut reports on/about February 15, 2016, for the "offiical" ND crude oil production in December, 2015. Bentek says that it will dip "less than 1% month over month, or about 9,000 bopd."

Bottom line: mixing "official" NDIC data on actual production with "predicted" Bentek numbers is very, very confusing. For me, the Bentek numbers are helpful -- as "tea leaves" -- but it's the NDIC numbers that I trust.

*****************************

Pricing

On another note, the linked Platts article noted this:

The price of oil out of the Bakken formation at Williston, North Dakota, dropped 16% between January (2016) and December (2015), with an average price of $45.24/b, according to the Platts Bakken  assessment. But when compared to the same month a year ago, the Platts Bakken price is down 35%. The wellhead assessment has ranged between $30.04/b and $59.32/b in 2015.

The Platts Bakken, introduced April 22, 2014, is a daily assessment of price for oil closest to the wellhead prior to determination of transportation by rail or pipe. The assessment reflects a sulfur content of 0.2% or less and an American Petroleum Institute (API) gravity of 42 or less, similar to the nature of North Dakota Light Sweet crude.

Seven Hundred Fifty Wells Waiting To Be Fracked -- January 21, 2015

Something to note about the monthly Director's Cut: some information is in real-time, such as the comment section and the number of wells waiting to be completed. At least, the wording suggests that the number of wells waiting to be completed is fairly current.

On the other hand, the production data is a full six weeks old.

As long as I've been following the Bakken, it seems there were always 350 - 400 wells waiting to be fracked.  It caught my attention when last month's Director's Cut suggested there were 600 wells waiting to be fracked, and then this month the news was staggering: up to 750 wells waiting to be fracked.

The March Director's Cut (data current as of the end of January) should be very, very interesting, where fracking stands.

I look at pricing of oil this way:

• Saudi Arabia can affect the price of oil immediately (a simply announcement)
• shale oil can affect the price of oil over 6 to 9 months
• deep-sea drilling, off-shore drilling, large projects won't impact the price of oil for years

One has to ask the question, how fast can shale oil affect the price of oil?

Back in 2007: imagine the time it used to take to get the lease, get the permit, build the pad, build the road, get the rig on the pad, wait to get a frack team in place, to frack one well on one pad.

Now, 2015: the infrastructure is all there. The pads are built, the roads to the pads are built; there is an excess of rigs. Putting a rig on the pad and then drilling can take a couple of weeks. Fracking is measured in days, although it may take a week to get water and proppants on-site. And instead of fracking one well on one pad, operators can frack many wells on the same pad almost simultaneously, or certainly very quickly sequentially.

*********************************************

Data Points To Follow

January 22, 2015: a review of 1H14 wells that were on DRL status prior to the review.

January 19, 2015: based on daily activity reports, this is the date that it appears North Dakota operators began "circling the wagons." Obviously things were put in motion about 30 days earlier. The January dockets (released in December) were not particularly noteworthy with regard to activity slowing down.

January 15, 2015: number of permits being issued on a daily basis are dropping off but still averaging about six new permits daily.

January 15, 2015: wells waiting to be completed are most likely hitting a new record, well above the previous month's data; said to be around 750 wells waiting to be fracked.

November 30, 2014: new production record; numbers not known until Director's Cut released on/about January 15, 2015.

October 31, 2014: wells waiting to be completed continue to edge up; data in Director's Cut is pretty much real-time.

October 1, 2014: For my purposes I've pegged the slump in oil prices to have begun October 1, 2014. Operators may have seen it coming months earlier. Certainly new NDIC rules on flaring and conditioning were already in place or soon to be in place, a fact well known by the operators.

Poll

There are two big events happening this week in North Dakota. The most important "event" will be the release of the monthly (June) NDIC "Director's Cut."

I forget the second event ... oh, yes, that's it: the president will be golfing at the Links of North Dakota visiting Standing Rock Indian Reservation where he will join Ms Elizabeth Warren (in spirit if not physically) as an honorary Native American. (Ms Warren is a genuine Native American, just for the record.)

The monthly "Director's Cut" generally comes out on/about the 15th of the month. It seemed like it was always coming out on the 15th, and then the past few weeks it came out as early as the 13th. I have never seen it come out on the 12th, and if it has ever come out after the 16th, I am not aware.

This month's "Director's Cut" could be quite an "event." If, in fact, North Dakota goes over the one-million-bopd milestone that story will eclipse (almost) everything else. I suppose an exception would be a visual sighting of a Williston dustball and then the Dickinson Press would run that as their headline story.

So, the question is this. Supposing (or not supposing) that North Dakota hits that milestone, one-million-bopd, will the Director's Cut come out on Friday, while the president of the United States (POTUS) is visiting Standing Rock Indian Reservation?
 
The poll is posted.

For newbies: the Director's Cut provides data for the month ending about six weeks earlier. So the June report will have the April data. It is established beyond a shadow of a doubt that the roughnecks, roustabouts, and truck drivers were capable of getting "us" to the one-million-bopd milestone in April. If the milestone was not reached in April, it was due to events beyond any ordinary man's control, even beyond that of Mr Lynn Helms', and should be declared a force majeure, by a lawyer trained in oil law. Had the frosty hands of Mother Nature not interfered with the grand plans of several oil men, the milestone would have been reached in January, 2014.

The following is not the official route that will be undertaken by the president when he visits North Dakota. It is presented for illustrative purposes only. No one should make plans (or change plans) based on this illustration.

Williston is the city for which the Williston Oil Basin was named.

Killdeer is the city that Jim Cramer of CNBC fame has visited. 

I assume the estimated time for travel is based on expected road conditions at this time of year and posted speed limits. Traveling time will be much reduced if traveling in a high-speed SUV motorcade. And yes, that's where Google places "Standing Rock Indian Reservation."

Since SRIR straddles the North Dakota/South Dakota border, one could actually poll readers on which side of the border the President will actually stand. Perhaps he could stand in one state, and have the teleprompter in the other state. That would be more fair.