Director's Cut For September, 2015, Data Is Out -- November 13, 2015; The Red Queen Has Not Fallen Off The Treadmill

The Director's Cut is out, November 13, 2015, with September, 2015, data.

North Dakota oil production for the month of September decreased by a little over 2%, a little over 25,000 bopd, compared to the previous month, August, 2015. The EIA estimated the entire US crude oil production would decrease by about 45,000 bopd in October, compared to September. [Be careful: the EIA estimate is for October crude oil production; the Director's Cut released today is September data.]

Because so much is carried forward from previous posts, there are likely to be errors in previous data; I would go to the source if this information is important to you.

Director's Cut

September, 2015, Data

September, 2015, data here.

I track the "cuts" here. 

Disclaimer: this update is always done in haste; typographical and factual errors are likely. This is for my use only. If this is important to you, you should go to the source. 

Note: facts and opinions are interspersed in the note below. Do not make any investment or financial decisions based on what is posted below; there will be factual and typographical errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source. 

The September data is posted at this link: https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/directorscut/directorscut-2015-11-13.pdf

Important data points:

• Today, pricing: $31.25
• Bakken price in October: $34.37
• Fracklog: 1,019 (98 more than at end of August, previous reporting period)
• Completions: 115 (119 in July, 2015) -- more wells going to SI/NC status
• Statewide flaring: 20% (no change from previous month) 

Delta, crude oil production: 

• 1,162,253 - 1,187,631 = - 25,378
• 25,378 / 1,187,631 = 2.14% decrease month-over-month

Oil:  

• September, 2015:  1,162,253 (preliminary)
• August, 2015: 1,187,631 (final, revised)
• July, 2015: 1,206,996 (final, revised) 
• June, 2015: 1,211,328 (final)(second highest; highest was December, 2014)
• May, 2015: 1,202,615 (final)
• April, 2015: 1,169,045 (final)
• March, 2015: 1,190,502 (final); 1,190,582 bopd (preliminary)
• February, 2015: 1,178,082 bopd (revised, final); 1,177,094 (preliminary)
• January, 2015: 1,191,198 bopd (all time high was last month)
• December, 2014: revised, 1,227,483 bopd (preliminary - 1,227,344 bopd - preliminary, new all-time high)

Producing wells:

• September, 2015: 13,025 (preliminary, all time high was August, 2015)
• August, 2015: 13,031 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• July, 2015: 12,965 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• June, 2015: 12,868 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• May, 2015: 12,679 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• April, 2015: 12,545 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• March, 2015: 12,443 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• February, 2015: 12,199 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• January, 2015: 12,181 (preliminary -- new all-time high)
• December, 2014: 12,134 (preliminary, new all-time high)
• November, 2014: 11,951 (revised); 11,942 (preliminary, new all-time high)
• October, 2014: 11,892; revised 11,942 (preliminary, new all-time high)
• September, 2014: 11,758 (revised); 11,741 (preliminary; new all-time high)
• August, 2014: 11,565

Permitting: 

• October, 2015: 152
• September, 2015: 154
• August, 2015: 153
• July, 2015: 233
• June, 2015: 192
• May, 2015: 150
• April, 2015: 168
• March, 2015: 190
• February, 2015: 197
• January, 2015: 246
• December, 2014: 251
• November, 2014: 235
• October, 2014: 328
• September, 2014: 261
• August, 2014: 273
• All-time high was 370 in 10/2012
  

Pricing: 

• Today, 2015: $31.25
• October, 2015: $34.37
• September, 2015: $31.17
• August, 2015: $29.52
• July, 2015: $39.41
• June, 2015: 47.73
• May, 2015: $44.70
• April, 2015: $38.33; $36.25 (lowest since February, 2009, and January, 2015) (all-time high was $136.29 7/3/2008)
• March, 2015: $31.47
• February, 2015: $34.11
• January, 2015: $31.41
• December, 2014: $40.74
• November, 2014: $60.61
• October, 2014: $68.94
• Sept, 2014: $74.85
• August, 2014: $78.46

Rig count:

• Today:  64 - lowest since November, 2009, when it was 63 (all time high was 218 on 5/29/2012)
• October 68
• September: 71
• August: 74
• July: 73
• June: 78
• May: 83
• April: 91 (lowest since January 2010)
• March: 108
• February: 133
• January: 160
• December, 2014: 181
• November, 2014: 188
• October, 2014: 191
• Sept, 2014: 193
• August, 2014: 193
• July, 2014:  192

Director's comments:  [see source]

The number of well completions rose slightly from 115 (final) in August to 123 (preliminary) in September.

Drilling rig count: 

• rig count decreased 3 from August to September, decreased 3 from September to October, and dropped 4 more so far this month 
• dropped 5 from June to July
• dropped 5 from May to June
• dropped 8 from April to May
• dropped 17 from March to April 8
• dropped 25 February to March
• dropped 27 from January to February
• dropped 7 from November to December
• dropped 21 from December to January
• dropped 23 from January to date of previous month's Director's Cut

Well completions: 

• September 123 (preliminary)
• August: 115 (final)
• July: 119 (final)
• June: 149 (final)
• May: 116 (final)
• April: 102 (final -- astounding drop)
• March: an astounding 194 (final)
• February: 42
• January: 63
• December: 173 (preliminary)
• November: 48

Weather: 

• one significant precipitation event in the Williston area and one in the Minot area
• 5 days with wind speeds in excess of 35 mph (too high for completion work)
• no days with temperatures below -10F

Wells waiting to be completed:  

• At the end of September, an estimated 1,091 wells were waiting to be completed; 98 more than the end of August
• At end of August, an estimate 993 wells waiting to be completed; 79 more than end of July
• At end of July, an estimated 914 wells waiting to be completed, 70 more than at end of June
• At end of June, an estimated 844 wells waiting to be completed
• At end of May, an estimated 925 wells were waiting to be completed, no change
• At end of April, an estimated 925 wells were waiting to be completed, an increase of 45
• At end of March, an estimated 880 wells were waiting to be completed, a decrease of 20
• At end of February, an estimated 900 wells waiting to be completed, an increase of 75
• March, 2015, Director's Cut -- 825 wells -- an increase of 75-- January data
• Previous Director's Cut -- 750, a decrease of 25
• Red Queen: 110 - 120 completions per month to maintain 1.2 million bopd

Flaring: 

• capture target, current, January - December, 2015: 77% (actual, 80%)
• capture target, April, 2016 - October, 2016: 80%(had been 90%)
• capture target, November, 2016 - October, 2018: 85%
• capture target, November, 2018 - October, 2020: 88%
• capture target, after October, 2020: 91%
• flaring today: 19%, down from 20% the previous month
• finally, the Tioga gas plant was down to 90% capacity (down slightly from previous month) capacity (92% last month; 90% prior; and, 93% previous to that)
• the Lake Sakakawea gas gathering expansion project was approved, but it was approved too late for the 2015 construction season, resulting in a one-year delay.

Gas capture statistics:  

• statewide: 81% (October 2014 target was 74%; CY 2015 capture target is 77%)
• FBIR Bakken: 83% (was 77% last month)

Fracking policies/regulations: (see source linked above; way too much to post)