Director's Cut Is Out; Production Month-Over-Month Unchanged -- February, 2016, Data

See North Dakota natural gas production / milestone: http://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2016/04/directors-cut-is-out-february-2016-data.html.

See John Kemp's tweets: http://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2016/04/tweeting-now-from-john-kemp-regarding.html.

Note: as a reminder, the summary of the Director's Cut was significantly truncated beginning this calendar year. For those wishing to see trends over time, one will have to go back to summaries posted for previous calendar years.

See disclaimer below.

Link here.

The Director's Cut is out, April 15, 2016, with February, 2016, data.

North Dakota oil production for the month of February decreased by about 2.5%, almost a 30,000 bopd decrease compared to the previous month, January, 2016.

Because so much is carried forward from previous posts, there are likely to be errors in previous data; I would go to the source if this information is important to you.

Top four producing oil fields in the Bakken at this link.

Index of previous summaries of the Director's Cut is here.

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Director's Cut 

February 2016 Data

February, 2016, data is presented here.

Disclaimer: this update is always done in haste; typographical and factual errors are likely. This is for my use only. If this is important to you, you should go to the source. 

Note: facts and opinions are interspersed in the note below. Do not make any investment or financial decisions based on what is posted below; there will be factual and typographical errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

Important data points:

• Today, pricing: $31.25
• the pricing of Bakken on the day the previous Director's Cut was posted: $26.25
• Bakken (ND sweet crude) price in March, 2016:  $26.62
• Bakken (ND sweet crude) price in February, 2016: $18.07
• Bakken (ND sweet crude) price in January, 2016: $21.13
• Fracklog: 907 (down from 945 in January)
• estimated number of inactive wells: 1,439
• Statewide flaring: 11% (down from 13% last month) -- this is really quite incredible, considering

Delta, crude oil production:  (needs to be updated)

• 1,118,333 - 1,122,462 =  4,129 bopd
• -4,100 / 1,122,100 = 0.4% decrease month-over-month

Oil:  

• February, 2016:  1,118,333 (preliminary)
• January, 2016: 1,122,462
• December, 2015:1,152,696 (final, revised)
• November, 2015: 1,181,787 (final, revised)
• October, 2015: 1,171,119 (final, revised)
• September, 2015:  1,162,159 (final, revised)
• August, 2015: 1,187,631 (final, revised)
• July, 2015: 1,206,996 (final, revised) 
• June, 2015: 1,211,328 (final)(second highest; highest was December, 2014)
• May, 2015: 1,202,615 (final)
• April, 2015: 1,169,045 (final)
• March, 2015: 1,190,502 (final); 1,190,582 bopd (preliminary)
• February, 2015: 1,178,082 bopd (revised, final); 1,177,094 (preliminary)
• January, 2015: 1,191,198 bopd (all time high was last month)
• December, 2014: revised, 1,227,483 bopd (all-time high)

Producing wells:

• February, 2016:  13,012 (preliminary)
• January, 2016: 13,141
• December, 2015: 13,128 (final revised; increase from last month)
• November, 2015: 13,100 (final revised, decreased from last month)
• October, 2015: 13,190 (final revised, new all-time high)
• September, 2015: 13,036 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• August, 2015: 13,031 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• July, 2015: 12,965 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• June, 2015: 12,868 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• May, 2015: 12,679 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• April, 2015: 12,545 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• March, 2015: 12,443 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• February, 2015: 12,199 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• January, 2015: 12,181 (preliminary -- new all-time high)
• December, 2014: 12,134 (preliminary, new all-time high)
• November, 2014: 11,951 (revised); 11,942 (preliminary, new all-time high)
• October, 2014: 11,892; revised 11,942 (preliminary, new all-time high)

Permitting: 

• March, 2016: 56 drilling
• February, 2016: 70 drilling
• January, 2016: 78 drilling
• December, 2015: 95 (steep decline)
• November, 2015: 125
• October, 2015: 152
• September, 2015: 154
• August, 2015: 153
• July, 2015: 233
• June, 2015: 192
• May, 2015: 150
• April, 2015: 168
• March, 2015: 190
• February, 2015: 197
• January, 2015: 246
• All-time high was 370 in 10/2012
  

Pricing: 

• April 15, 2016: $31.25
• March 2016: $26.62
• January, 2016: $21.13
• February, 2016: $18.07
• February 17, 2016: $16.50 (post-boom low?)
• January, 2016: $21.13
• December, 2015: $27.57
• November, 2015: $32.16
• October, 2015: $34.37
• September, 2015: $31.17
• August, 2015: $29.52
• July, 2015: $39.41
• June, 2015: 47.73
• May, 2015: $44.70
• April, 2015: $38.33; $36.25 (lowest since February, 2009, and January, 2015) (all-time high was $136.29 7/3/2008)
• March, 2015: $31.47
• February, 2015: $34.11
• January, 2015: $31.41
• December, 2014: $40.74

Rig count:

• Today: 29
• March: 32
• February: 40
• January, 2016: 52
• December: 64
• November: 64
• October: 68
• September: 71
• August: 74
• July: 73
• June: 78
• May: 83
• April: 91 (lowest since January 2010)
• March: 108
• February: 133
• January, 2015: 160
• December, 2014: 181

Director's comments:  [see source] (needs to be updated)

The number of well completions fell significantly month-over-month: 71 (final) in January to 63 (preliminary) in February.

Well completions:

• February: 62 (preliminary)
• January, 2016: 71 (final -- significant difference from preliminary figure of 82)
• December: 81 (final)
• November: 77 (significant difference from preliminary figure)
• October: 43 (final)
• September: 123 (final)
• August: 115 (final)
• July: 119 (final)
• June: 149 (final)
• May: 116 (final)
• April: 102 (final -- astounding drop)
• March: an astounding 194 (final)
• February: 42
• January: 63
• December: 173 (preliminary)
• November: 48

Flaring:  (needs to be updated)

• capture target, current, January - December, 2015: 77% (had been 80%)
• capture target, April, 2016 - October, 2016: 80% (had been 90%)
• capture target, November, 2016 - October, 2018: 85%
• capture target, November, 2018 - October, 2020: 88%
• capture target, after October, 2020: 91%
• flaring capture percentage in January, 2016: 87%