October, 2015, Bakken Oil Production Remains Flat Month-Over-Month -- November 25, 2015

The Director's Cut comes out about the middle of the month. When it comes out, the data is for the month prior to the previous month (even I don't understand that); in other words, the "November 15th" Director's Cut was for September data.

So this caught me by surprise. Platts Bentek reported today that October production from both the Eagle Ford and the Bakken remained flat. October production.

Oil production from key shale formations in North Dakota and Texas remained relatively flat in October versus September, according to Platts Bentek.

For the Eagle Ford:

Oil production from the Eagle Ford shale basin in Texas continued flat streak in October, increasing only 6000 barrels per day (b/d), or less than 1%, versus the previous month, the latest analysis showed. 

The average oil production from the South Texas, Eagle Ford basin in October was 1.5 million barrels per day. On a year-over-year basis, that is up close to 65,000 incremental barrels per day, or about 5% higher than October 2014.  

For the Bakken:

The average crude oil production from the North Dakota section of the Bakken in October was 1.2 million b/d, or about 13,000 b/d from year ago levels.

"Much like the Eagle Ford, producers in the Bakken shale are also consistently looking to reduce costs to hold production steady," said Yahya. "In September 2014, 77% of the total wells drilled in the basin were drilled in the core counties (McKenzie, Dunn, Williams and Mountrail) and that metric has since risen to 92% in October 2015. 

Beginning in September 2015, producers have taken this process a step further and are migrating within the core. The number of wells drilled in Dunn and McKenzie counties rose 20% for the same time period. Conversely, the number of wells drilled in Mountrail and Williams counties declined 20%."

Pricing:

The price of oil out of the Bakken formation at Williston, North Dakota, was up 11% between January and October, with an average price of $46.85/b for the first 10 months of 2015, according to the Platts Bakken assessment.

Platts Bakken, however, is down 40% when compared to last year's corresponding month. The wellhead assessment has ranged between $33.35/b and $59.32/b since the beginning of January.

The Platts Bakken, introduced April 22, 2014, is a daily assessment of price for oil closest to the wellhead prior to determination of transportation by rail or pipe. The assessment reflects a sulfur content of 0.2% or less and an American Petroleum Institute (API)** gravity of 42 or less, similar to the nature of North Dakota Light Sweet crude. 

Meanwhile, back to the Director's Cut. The November 13, 2015, Director's Cut reported data for September, 2015:

• 1,162,253 (preliminary)

That compares to Bentek's assessment that:

• the average crude oil production from the North Dakota section of the Bakken in October was 1.2 million b/d.

The NDIC Director's Cut data is for all North Dakota oil production; Bentek characterized this was "Bakken oil production." That needs to be sorted out.

But if accurate (and we will know on/about December 15, 2015, when the next Director's cut comes out) Bentek suggests that there was an increase from 1.16 million bopd in September to 1.2 million bopd in October.

My hunch is that the "1.2 million" figure is a "rounded number."