Locator: 51718REFINERS.
There's an article out there that suggests President Trump is weighing the Defense Production Act to increase production of US refined products within the continental US.
I doubt there would be one sentient congressman/congresswoman/senator (exceptions: Bernie and the AOC crowd) who would come out publicly against doing this.
There are only two options that I see but both options will have the same headline: US government throws huge amount of money to US integrated oils and refiners hoping something will stick. The two options for the integrated oils and refiners:
- building new refineries (good luck with that); and/or,
- increasing production through improved efficiencies at current refineries (it's hard to believe the refiners could produce that much more by such improvements -- but hope springs eternal).
There will be strings attached to any US government financial aid but the headline will be enough to provide short-term support for US integrated oil and refiners. See disclaimer. This could be the refinery headline prior to the November mid-term election. Again, the president can sign an executive order but the US Congress controls the actual amount of money that could be provided.
With diesel at all time highs, something needs to be said. I doubt anything can actually be done before the elections.
According to the EIA, approximately 80% of diesel produced in US refiners stays in the US; 20% is exported to global markets. Mandating less diesel exports could not be very much but carries a huge risk of a huge recession in Europe.
We may see a lot of headlines that China can produce diesel from coal, but so-doing won't make much of a dent on the availability of diesel and/or the price of diesel. One wonders to what extent the diesel crunch is hurting Iran's / IGRC's military capabilities.
China can use coal-to-diesel production to protect its economy from severe oil price shocks, but it cannot use it to significantly lower the everyday retail price of diesel.
While turning coal into oil is highly profitable during international energy crises, the total amount of fuel these plants can make is simply too small to shift overall domestic price (or apparently availability).
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Coal Remains King


