Thursday, September 25, 2025

Chevron: $400 Million Loss Tied To Hess Acquisition -- 3Q25 -- September 25, 2025

Locator: 49240CVX.

Link here. 

AI prompt:

In round numbers could one say Chevron's (CVX) quarterly numbers are: revenue, $200 billion; earnings, $2 billion?

AI reply:

While the $2 billion earnings estimate is close, stating Chevron's quarterly revenue is $200 billion is inaccurate . 
The correct figures are significantly lower. 
  • Based on its most recent earnings report for the second quarter of 2025 (Q2 2025): 
    • Revenue: The actual revenue was $44.82 billion; 
    • Earnings: The reported GAAP earnings were $2.5 billion. Adjusted earnings were $3.1 billion 

AI prompt:

Chevron (CVX) revenue, earnings. Following the Hess acquisition, what's Chevron's revenue / earnings likely to be for the third quarter, 2025?

AI reply:

  • Reported earnings: A loss of $200 to $400 million.
  • Adjusted earnings: An impact of positive $50 million to $150 million, excluding severance charges and other one-time transaction costs.
  • Revenue: While Chevron's official revenue forecast is not yet available, analysts expect the company's revenue to be approximately $48 billion for the quarter.
  •  Production: Net oil-equivalent production from the acquired Hess assets is forecast to be 450,000–500,000 barrels per day. 

Ticker today:

Is CVX's quarterly dividend at risk? Time will tell.

AI prompt: 

In the last ten years, what was the worst quarterly loss reported by Chevron (CVX).

AI reply:

The worst quarterly loss reported by Chevron (CVX) in the last ten years was a record $8.3 billion loss in the second quarter of 2020.

Iconic Apple Store In Tokyo Re-Opens — September 25, 2025

Locator: 49239APPLE.
Locator: 49239SUPERCYCLE.

Tokyo’s iconic Apple Store about to re-open.

Link here.

Link here.

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SuperCycle -- Tom Lee -- Closing Bell -- CNBC

Link here.  Tom Lee:

We’re in an AI supercycle and sees Nvidia as a bargain at 26x forward earnings … cheaper than Costco or Walmart today and far below Cisco’s 60x back in 1998. In his view, valuations now look far more reasonable than in 1999.

Link here. 

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Breaking: Recession Fears -- It Gets Tedious

Link here.  

BREAKING: Recession fears rise on better than expected economic growth.

From this morning:  

Stagflation? Sara Eisen -- no, not even close.  

Link here. 

Government Shutdown -- Trump Made His Decision Two Days Ago -- September 25, 2025

Locator: 49238SHUTDOWN.  

The US Congress is in recess. Returns to Washington, DC, Monday, September 29, 2025.

US government needs to be funded by midnight, Tuesday, September 30, 2025. 

Most agree it's impossible to get a temporary spending bill approved in less than 48 hours. 

We'll wait for Polymarket on x to give us the odds that the government will / won't be shut down as of Wednesday, October 1, 2025.  

My hunch: like Russian jets entering NATO airspace, Trump is interested in testing the response / strength of the US equity markets if there's a prolonged government shutdown. 

He's tired of this semi-annual political kabuki dance and wants to prove once and for all: a government shutdown? No one cares. He'll restore essential services -- like the TSA -- on a case-by-case basis. But the national parks ... oh, well. BLS? Oh, well. FEMA? Oh, well. 

The White House won't shut. Let the other two branches shut down. Think what he can get accomplished without the other two branches interfering.

Imagine: any number of emergencies could pop up anywhere in the world during a US government shutdown. The American people would demand presidential action. Trump would be only too happy to act.  

It's interesting that Hegseth has ordered "all" flag officers meet in Washington, DC, on the day before the US government shuts down. I don't believe in coincidences.  

Costco -- A Looming Recession -- LOL -- September 26, 2025

Locator: 49237COSTCO.  

Today's feature article in The Atlantic: the coming US recession.

That's why I don't subscribe to The Atlantic any more.

2Q25 GDP: 3.8% final and official -- announced today -- vs 3.3% estimated.

And now this: link here. Hardly looks like a recession and hardly looks like the US consumer is struggling.


And Americans shopping at Costco have to pay the privilege to shop there.

What a great country.

It Gets Tedious -- Money Is Fungible -- September 25, 2025

Locator: 49236POLITICS.  

See this post. 

Talk about political smoke and mirrors. Even in North Dakota. 

Again, see this post. 

Two days ago North Dakota state officials were complaining that the "Big Beautiful Bill" would cost North Dakota taxpayers $130 million.

Today, we learn the "Big Beautiful Bill" will give North Dakota so much money -- for one "project" -- the state will have to establish a new committee to manage all that money -- $500 million.

It gets tedious. 

Link here. 

Of if there's a pay wall, just go to AI: