Tuesday, September 14, 2021

Notes From All Over -- September 14, 2021

A graphic is worth a thousand tweets, link here.

Politics:

From July 7, 2021:

A star is born: the recall effort to remove Governor Newsom from office will backfire. He will become a national celebrity and run for federal office. 

And we move on.

Covid-19, from mcm-ct (raise your hand if you accept this):

Flu cases in USA:
  • 2012 - 34 million
  • 2013 - 30 million
  • 2014 - 30 million
  • 2015 - 24 million
  • 2016 - 29 million
  • 2017 - 45 million
  • 2018 - 36 million
  • 2019 - 38 million
  • 2020 - 1,822 cases -- that's not a typo

Covid-19, reporting:

One wonders to what extent reporting makes a difference.

Cases: The US is testing folks over and over and over (ask the athletes). I doubt the (sub-continent) Indians are testing anywhere near to the degree that we are testing. The same probably holds true for Israel.
An aside: my incredibly healthy adult daughter, a Ph.D. nurse, has been fully vaccinated; was exposed to laboratory-proved Covid in her home (her husband had a relatively severe disease not requiring hospitalization); and, although most of her practice is still on line, she says she will gladly be tested weekly if her employee wants her tested weekly. She will be tested today (again).
Deaths: The US health care sector has great (Medicare) financial incentive to report deaths related to / due to / associated with Covid -- and a lot of those diagnoses were clinically-diagnosed by attending physician and not confirmed by any laboratory test.

We have at least three arenas in which Covid is being followed:
  • the political arena;
  • the business community; and,
  • the entertainment community (to include sports).
Public schools? I consider public education part of the political arena. 
It is obvious that the business community and the entertainment community have moved on.

Of the two (business and entertainment), business is most important. Sports makes my weekends less boring but I learned to live without sports during the plague year.

The concern about delta is a wonderful thing for the economy. It slowed things down from getting out of control (inflation, growth, etc). The bull market will be pulled along an additional year because of delta. I'm not complaining.

****************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$70.91
9/14/202109/14/202009/14/201909/14/201809/14/2017
Active Rigs24*12646555

Twenty-four active oil & gas rigs, per the NDIC daily activity report.

One new permit, #38558 --

  • Operator: Kraken
  • Field: Ellisville (Williams)
  • Comments:
    • Kraken has a permit for a Maddie section line well to be sited in NENE 9-158-99; 
    • 375 FNL and 429 FEL

Twelve permits renewed:

  • MRO (7): MRO renewed seven permits for wells in section 33-152-93: Betty Lou USA; Laverne USA; Duane USA; Lillian USA; Dawson USA; Gladheim USA; and, Olive USA; Mountrail County:
  • Nine Point Energy (3): three Sanders permits in McKenzie County
  • XTO: one Carus State Federal permit in Dunn County
  • BR: one Saddle Jerome permit in Dunn County;

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 38175, 758, Iron Oil Operating, Antelope 2-32-29H,
  • 38088, 768, Iron Oil Operating, Antelope 3-32-29H, 
  • a couple of older Iron Oil Operating wells of interest in the immediate vicinity of these DUCs; both showing subtle "halo effect," one greater than the there: #26708 and #26707;

Notes From All Over -- Part 1 -- September 14, 2021

Hundred-dollar oil: Europe is now substituting crude oil for natural gas -- pricing now at $133 / boe equivalent (sic) TTF gas price. [TTF: Netherlands::WTI:Cushing]. Is anyone paying attention? Europe is now pulling oil out of storage to meet electricity demands. Look at graph. Bloomberg calling for $100-oil.

Hurricane Nicholas: sources suggest half of Texas without power. Link here. But oil unchanged because Nicholas had minimal effects on GoM crude oil supplies. Colonial Pipeline was shut down for a few hours today due to power outages; back up and running now.

Historic: China -- will stop hoarding oil. Say what? Link here to Haley Zaremba.

For a long time, China’s energy policy has centered around one primary and pressing goal: to establish energy security. As the biggest importer and second-biggest consumer of oil in the world, China is extremely dependent on international markets to keep the lights on and the gears of industry turning. In 2019, a whopping 72% of all crude oil consumed in China was imported. This is a dynamic that makes Beijing uncomfortable, to say the least, and President Xi Jinping’s administration has been hard at work trying to shore up a greater degree of energy independence.

That’s why it came as such a surprise this week when China made a historic decision to sell off some of the oil it has been stockpiling in a strategic reserve for years now. “The heavy dependence on foreign supply has spurred Beijing to focus on ways it can prevent energy shortages,” CNN Business reported back in April 2020. “In addition to requiring state-owned oil companies to increase production, the country has spent years working to increase the amount of oil it keeps in reserve.” Beijing is secretive about just how much oil they have stockpiled, but the nation had been planning to catch up to the world’s largest backup oil cache -- the United States’ Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which boasts an authorized storage capacity of 714 million barrels. 

Amy R Sisk: I wonder if Ms Sisk would ever consider holding the "Bakken Desk" for oilprice.com? I remember when Hunter S Thompson held the "Vietnam Desk" for Rolling Stone and reporting / interest improved / increased 10-fold. Or more.

API weekly:

  • US crude: down 5.4 million bbls
  • Cushing: down 1.3 million bbls
  • gasoline: down 2.8 million bbls
  • distillate: down 2.9 million bbls

Global Oil Supply -- September 14, 2021

Hurricane Ida: GoM crude oil losses stand at 30 million bbls. But that pales in comparison to what Resident Biden has cost us.

I don't know what others think, but this seems .... well, unnerving.... with the economy opening up ... link here:

Observations:

  • OPEC: disciplined?
  • Russia: already at maximum production?
  • Mexico: confused?
  • Venezuela: rock bottom?
  • China: booming?
  • US: Resident Biden doing what he can to hold back US oil production!

WTI today: pretty much unchanged at $70.47

A Monster Well Updated -- September 14, 2022

Monster wells are tracked here. 

This monster well updated:

  • 1655, 20, Cobra/Enduro Operating, Newburg-Spearfish-Charles Unit Q-711, t1/58; cum 822K 4/19; cum 825K 9/24;

Just Another Day In The Bakken -- What A Great Surprise For Some Mineral Rights Owner -- September 14, 2021

The well:

  • 25857, 4,545, Equinor, Skarston 1 -12 4H, 41 stages; 6 million lbs: 9/17/14; 12/08/14; t4/16; cum 385K 4/19; sporadic production lately suggesting activity, 3/19; cum 442K 7/21; full production profile here. 

Skarston wells that had recently been off-line are now back on line. Most, if not all, of the Skarston wells came off line in 2020; as of 9/20, all were back on line.

Recent production. Note the jump from 1,000 bbls/month to over 9,000 bbls/month.

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-20212990498894648827926217254219
BAKKEN6-20212718081681138929422370357
BAKKEN5-202131356233952820794862321156
BAKKEN4-20212932523551256959475097346
BAKKEN3-202131177216902767288013631332
BAKKEN2-2021251991174888124762061197
BAKKEN1-20213125082489277646484072196
BAKKEN12-2020241169107925871291112961
BAKKEN11-2020003220000
BAKKEN10-20202634563281267161695179590
BAKKEN9-202030421442355356515237311078
BAKKEN8-2020716806031260108
BAKKEN7-20200000000
BAKKEN6-20200000000
BAKKEN5-20200000000
BAKKEN4-20200000000
BAKKEN3-20200000000
BAKKEN2-20200000000
BAKKEN1-20200000000
BAKKEN12-2019001020000
BAKKEN11-201917850789149688178147
BAKKEN10-20191377290513598717883