Saturday, November 17, 2018

North Dakota Crude Oil Production, September, 2018, Data -- Bismarck Tribune -- BLM To Defer To State, Tribal Law Regarding Flaring

The Director's Cut summary was posted yesterday. The Bismarck Tribune reports on the record production at this link. Two additional data points with a new wrinkle, both with regard to flaring.

First, the NDIC is close to releasing new recommendations for flaring. Reading between the lines, it sounds like the NDIC will loosen restrictions but at a "cost" for the operators.

Second, and this seems noteworthy, considering how glacially some federal agencies move.
The Bureau of Land Management recently met with officials from the state and the Mandan, Hidatsa and Arikara Nation about upcoming changes to how the federal agency regulates flaring.
Under the revised Waste Prevention Rule, the BLM intends to defer to state and tribal regulation of flaring.
The BLM also plans to develop a memorandum of understanding with the state and with MHA Nation related to sharing data and making a determination about whether an operator is in compliance with flaring regulations, said Loren Wickstrom, field manager for the BLM North Dakota Field Office.
That in bold: I don't think we would have seen that under an Obama / Hillary administration. In fact, it's downright scary to go back and read how the Obama administration did what they could to kill the US oil industry. They could only go so far, but the direction they were going was very concerning. I follow this stuff pretty closely and I've already forgotten the specific but they included: a permitorium (ban on new drilling permits); killing interstate and transnational pipelines; supporting state efforts to ban hydraulic fracking; using inflammatory language ("boot on the neck") when regulating oil companies; quadrupling the oil spill liability tax levied on oil companies (on top of other taxes, royalties, etc).

**************************************
A Note to the Granddaughters

Later today I will be taking the oldest granddaughter to a water polo tournament at SMU, Dallas. I was getting google directions last night and then something stirred memories of all the swimming events to which I have taken the granddaughters. The oldest will turn sixteen years old this summer; she's been swimming since six months of age. I first took her swimming when she was three or four years old when we would walk to the swimming pool in the family's neighborhood north of Charleston, South Carolina.

Then the family moved to Boston and she continued with swimming lessons and competition for four years in that area. She trained at the pool at the swimming pool on the air base west of Boston.

Then they moved to the Dallas-Ft Worth (Texas) area and she transitioned from racing to water polo. She has competed all over Texas and and has competed in annual tournaments in northern and southern California. She is now certified in scuba diving and sailing.

This afternoon, as noted, we will be driving down to Dallas for another Texas water polo meet. It is quite incredible all the driving we have done together: three or four practices every evening during the week, and then "game days" and / or tournaments on most weekends throughout the school year.

We won't leave for another couple of hours. Meanwhile, I'm watching Sophia participating in Saturday morning gymnastics and then swimming lessons. So, it all begins again.

Sloop John B, The Beach Boys

I came "late" to the Beach Boys.

Friday, November 16, 2018

Time To Sign Off For The Night -- Going Biking -- Headed Home -- Good Luck To All -- November 16, 2018

Flashback: from the blog, June 26, 2011 --  Wall Street Journal -- $4.00 gasoline ends the fantasy. 

Fast forward: gasoline is now below $2.00/gallon in some places. 

The incredible Bakken: Think about this:
  • 60 rigs -- that's all: 60 rigs
  • two counties, maybe three -- but that's about it
  • shortage of roughnecks
  • limited number of frack spreads
  • takeaway issues
  • the winters
  • courts being asked to shut down pipelines; in many cases, they do
  • price volatility
  • 2,000+ wells drilled to depth and not producing for operational reasons; that's more wells than will be drilled this year in North Dakota
  • 6,000+ wells that need to be re-fracked
And there it is, another production record. Lynn Helms says almost every record was broken in September, 2018.

1.3 million bopd. 

Remember when there were 200+ rigs in the Bakken and less than 400,000 bopd. 

x $50 = $65 million / day coming out of two counties, maybe three.

And the Permian? So much bigger.

You never can tell (if you're trying to remember where you might have heard this song: Pulp Fiction).

{C'est La Vie) You Never Can Tell, Emmylou Harris

The Market, Energy, And Political Page, Part 5, T+10 -- November 16, 2018

Best comment I've seen on this story: Shortest game of Clue right here. The Saudi Prince in the Embassy with the Bonesaw.


So many story lines.

Prior to this Washington Post / CIA story, President Trump had "unlimited" leverage over the Prince.

With the release of the story, the president no longer has "unlimited" leverage over the Prince. In fact, the president may now have more challenges; certainly, Saudi Arabia has a lot with which to deal. It's hard for me to believe that any responsible business man in the United States would want to be seen with the man pictured above. 

One wonders why the US, Britain, and the EU are not talking sanctions on Saudi Arabia. Ah, yes, realpolitik. 

I haven't read the Washington Post story; the real story is at what level in the administration was this story released to the Washington Post. Of course, the sources will remain anonymous, but it's hard for me to believe that the president did not give approval. Could be wrong. It will be interesting to see how Scott Adams addresses this. The story was just released; it's late in the evening, so it may be awhile before Scott Adams' next podcast.

Okay, now I've read the story. Nothing new there except that we now know about a phone call between the Saudi ambassador to the United States (who just happens to be a brother of the prince).

Also, very, very noteworthy: this whole story really doesn't say much that we didn't already know or suspect, but look at the number of reporters it took to write this really quite simple story: three. 

It shouldn't take three reporters to write such a non-story -- except that it gives the story gravitas, credibility. With this number of reporters, it tells me they have at least two, perhaps three sources, that corroborate the CIA angle. In addition, like Woodward and Bernstein there were multiple reporters connecting dots that one reporter might not have been able to do by herself.

But I suppose at the end of the day, if the US, Britain, France, Germany do not hold the Prince accountable, it will speak volumes about their leaders' sense of morality. Let's see which leader speaks out on this first.

*****************************
Speaking of Journalists

I continue to read the excerpts in Tom Wolfe's The New Journalism. Most recently I read the excerpt from HST's Hell's Angels. I had forgotten how really good Hunter's writing is/was.

And speaking of Hell's Angels, I happened to catch one of the "Billy Jack" movies the other night on TCM. An incredibly awful movie but a huge cult following.

One thing leads to another.

****************************
Wow, Some Music Is Needed -- The Carnival Is Over

The Carnival Is Over, The Seekers

********************************
Apparently Two Of The Contests Are Finally Over



It's my understanding that the US Senate is still 53 - 47. Don't know if that will change.

Bakken Operators Showing An Interest In Three-Mile-Long Laterals? -- November 16, 2018

Updates

November 16, 2018: in the original post I mentioned super long laterals / extended long laterals / three-section laterals / three-mile laterals / triple-section laterals.

A reader suggests that we should watch Liberty Resources for these triple-section laterals.

At this post, I have posted the Liberty Resources permits/file numbers in descending permit order -- most recent permits at the top and then descending down to the older permits. The fourth column is the drilled depth. That column is blank until you get to permit #33712 because the wells have either not been drilled yet or they are not yet off the confidential list.

I could be wrong, but generally speaking, any well that has a reported depth of ~21,000 feet is a two-section lateral. A well with a reported depth of ~15,000 feet is a one-section lateral. To be a three-section lateral, I would expect a drilled depth of ~ 24,000.

As Lynn Helms noted, the Liberty Resources wells are not in the core Bakken but are located northeast of Williston, north of Tioga and White Earth, in the Powers Lake area.

Most of the other triple-section laterals of which I am aware go under the river, drilled by other operators.
  • 33473, 568, Liberty Resources, Jensen W 159-93-21-9-1MBHX, Gros Ventre, t7/17; cum 141K 9/18; a triple-section well: TD= 24,308
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2018294318444513801696206962
BAKKEN8-2018314466438515106804008040
BAKKEN7-2018314984496415449845308453
BAKKEN6-2018305093503315925916709167
BAKKEN5-2018315976608016006996709967
BAKKEN4-2018306312639915554844508445
BAKKEN3-201831739073091916810424010424
BAKKEN2-2018266600658815966655205763
BAKKEN1-201831955794622234012003011003
BAKKEN12-20173110285106712320211849010902
BAKKEN11-2017291056510477240351075709874
BAKKEN10-20173113742137753155715202014167
BAKKEN9-20173014270142313685816114015168
BAKKEN8-20173116771168034505821956021728
BAKKEN7-20173117680174456197827022027022
BAKKEN6-201793185253161569458904589

Original Post 

Reported earlier but worth reporting again.

From twitter:

Link here. Data points:
  • North Dakota oil production averaged nearly 1.36 million b/d in September
  • production was up about 66,800 b/d from August and a new record for monthly output
  • September marked the fourth straight month for record-breaking oil output in North Dakota
  • there is currently 1.37 million b/d of pipeline capacity out of the Bakken, with another 250,000-275,000 b/d of crude-by-rail capacity
  • some lines are idled or operating below capacity, he said last week
  • and then this:
Helms said that September marked the first time in at least three years that oil increased more rapidly than gas as operators shifted out of core drilling areas in the state where the gas to oil ratios are relatively high, to new wells in Divide, Mountrail and Burke counties in northwest North Dakota. "Those areas had gone for several years without any drilling activity and now with the advent of the three-mile-long laterals and new completion techniques they're much, much more economic," Helms said. "We're starting to see a little moderation in terms of gas-oil ratios. We're seeing oil and gas synchronize a bit more."
I was unaware of the current interest in three-mile-long laterals. I've reported on a few in the past but haven't reported on any new ones. My hunch is that most of them are still conf or SI/NC.

See these tags below for three-mile laterals: "extended long laterals" and "super long laterals."

Eight New Permits; Six DUCs Reported As Completed -- November 16, 2018

Active rigs:

$56.68😓11/16/201811/16/201711/16/201611/16/201511/16/2014
Active Rigs63553863186

Eight new permits:
  • Operators: XTO (6); Whiting (2)
  • Fields: Alkali Creek (Williams), Elk (McKenzie)
  • Comments: XTO has permits for a 6-well Tom State pad in 1-154-95; Whiting has permits for a two-well Nelsen pad in lot 4, section 2-151-102;
Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 32022, 1,449, Hess, CA-Stangeland-155-95-2128H-4, Capa, t10/18; cum --
  • 33533, 2,444, Hess, AN-Gudbranson-153-94-2215H-8, Elm Tree, t10/18; cum --
  • 33532, 1,407, Hess, AN-Gudbranson-153-94-2215H-9, Elm Tree, t10/18; cum --
  • 34278, 1,643, Thomas 13-3-2TFH, Truax, t10/18; cum --
  • 34446, 2,284, Rennerfeldt 41-3-6TFHU, Stockyard Creek, t9/18; cum 37K after 27 days;
  • 34444, 2,207,  Rennerfeldt 41-3-1HU, Stockyard Creek, 4 sections, t9/18; cum 24K after 25 days;
Comments:

#34444 / #34446:
  • neighboring wells of interest:
  • #26030: jump in production from 1,800 bbls/month to 6,645 bbls/month
  • #26032: no jump in production see first month well was brought back on line
  • #24124: jump in production from 3,000 bbls/month to 6,000 bbls/month