Saturday, June 13, 2015

Real GDP Ranking: North Dakota Ranks #1 In 2014; The Other Surprise Is #3

Memo for Jane Nielson and Gregor McDonald: click on this link.
  1. After more than doubling from 2007 to 2010, annual oil production in the Peace Garden State more than doubled again in the two-year period from 2010 to 2012 (from 113 million to 243 million barrels), and the state was producing more than 10% of all US crude oil by 2012. North Dakota was producing so much shale oil in the Bakken, that it surpassed both Alaska and California to become the nation’s second-largest oil-producing state in 2012, behind only Texas. Also by 2012, the energy-driven stimulus to the state’s economy moved North Dakota to the No. 2 spot in the country for per-capita real GDP at $64,150 behind only Alaska at $70,437, and 33% above the national average of $48,264.
  2. In 2013, North Dakota’s real GDP per capita fell by 2%, and its ranking fell to No. 4 among US states for real GDP per capita at $62,750. But last year, North Dakota led the country with the largest increase in real state GDP (6.3%), and the state’s real GDP per capita rebounded to $65,225 setting a new state record, and moved the Peace Garden State back up to the No. 2 ranking among the country’s states for per-capita output, just behind No.1 Alaska at $66,160.
In all fairness, I think Gregor McDonald is looking at the Bakken from a peak oil perspective, and we both probably agree that we are being set up for $200 oil. On the other hand, Jane is a) incredibly deficient when it comes to her understanding of North Dakota and the Bakken; and, b) she is a good example of someone with significant blind spots as I've pointed out before. 
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Oil Still Tops ND Economy

The Dickinson Press is reporting:
Oil remained king in North Dakota as the largest economic sector and the engine that powered the state’s impressive growth last year despite a drop in petroleum prices.
The mining sector, dominated by oil and gas extraction, contributed $9 billion toward the state’s $55 billion economy last year, as measured by the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ gauge of the state’s gross domestic product.
North Dakota’s economy grew 8 percent from 2013 to 2014 — 6.3 percent when adjusted for inflation — topping the state growth rate for the sixth year in a row. That was a bit cooler than the 9.7 percent growth rate for 2013.
Data at Bureau of Economic Analysis.  

Screenshot (the table was too large to capture in one screenshot, but the important part of the table was captured):

 
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North Dakota, #1; Texas, #2; Wyoming, #4 -- Which State Was #3 For GDP Growth In 2014?

This is quite remarkable. I grew up thinking this was a poor Appalachian coal state. But it was ranked #3 behind North Dakota and Texas in GDP growth in 2014. Some data points:
  • the net corporate income tax rate is 8.5%, scheduled for reduction to 6.5% by 2014, while business costs are 13% below the national average
  • the state is a global chemical hub
  • the state has one of the nation's highest concentrations of biotech industries
  • a national energy hub, leading the nation in net interstate electricity exports and underground coal mine production
  • a growing renewable energy portfolio
  • the largest coal producer east of the Mississippi River
  • home to several hydroelectric facilities
  • major aerospace employers are located in the state
The state? West Virginia.
The state is a global hub for chemicals, a national hub for biotech industries and a leader in energy, while having a diverse economy in aerospace, automotive, healthcare and education, metals and steels, media and telecommunications, manufacturing, hospitality, biometrics, forestry, and tourism.
West Virginia's economy accelerated in 2014 with a growth rate of 5.1%, ranking third among the fastest growing states in the United States alongside Wyoming and just behind North Dakota and Texas.

Reason #4,534 Why I Love To Blog -- June 13, 2015

I think one of the most interesting stories to follow for the next two years will be OPEC oil production. Well, duh.

I keep going back to the graph at this post. I keep repeating the same data points, and adding some:
  • Saudi embarked on a $35 billion, 5-year program back in 2012 to sustain oil production
  • Saudi's oil production has hardly moved since 2012
  • Saudi's budget is based on $100 oil
  • domestic consumption of oil and natural gas is increasing in Saudi Arabia
  • apparently the Saudi quest to find natural gas in Rub al Khali failed; one of many links; a better link;
  • Saudi Arabia is embarking on a huge refinery program (see below)
  • the water situation in the Mideast is getting more and more challenging, and the amount of energy needed for desalination is beyond one's imagination (see below)
  • Saudi has a huge new terrorist organization to worry about
  • Saudi is engaged in a fairly expensive shooting war
  • President Obama has made it very clear that Saudi is on their own when it comes to security
  • the Saudi oil minister is making some bizarre statements about the end of fossil fuel (bizarre or disingenuous)
Saudi Arabia's huge refining program, The Wall Street Journal reported this earlier this year (2015):
Saudi Arabia plans to become the world’s second-largest exporter of refined oil products in 2017 as part of its drive to diversify its economy and increase its share of the global crude and petroleum products markets, the kingdom’s oil minister Ali al-Naimi said Wednesday.
The kingdom’s two new refineries will add 800,000 barrels a day in refining capacity this year. A planned 400,000-barrel-per-day oil refinery in Jazan will bring Saudi Arabia’s refining capacity to more than 3 million barrels a day.
“That will make the kingdom one of the five largest countries in the world in terms of refined crude capacity and the second largest exporter of refined products after the U.S.,” Mr. al-Naimi said.
And even more:
Last year, Saudi Aramco started output at one of the largest oil refineries built in recent years—a 400,000-barrel-a-day project in a joint venture with Total SA. Another 400,000 barrels a day plant in Yanbu, a joint venture with China’s Sinopec called Yasref, started trial runs in September and exported its first shipment in January.
Saudi Aramco has previously said it plans to increase its refining capacity to 8 million barrels a day in the next decade through expansion both at home and abroad.
To some extent, this is a "wash." Countries currently importing Saudi crude oil may switch to importing Saudi petroleum products instead.

Saudi Arabia's domestic energy consumption and desalination: several links --
If Saudi Arabia's oil reserves were inexhaustible, their desalination program would not be an issue. But apparently, Saudi Arabia has concerns.

The kingdom is now embarking on a huge solar-powered desalination project. It will be the world's first large scale solar powered desalination plant.

Just a few weeks ago, on May 22, 2015, The Guardian had a big story on Saudi Arabia turning to solar energy for its desalination program, and then even made the crazy assertion that someday Saudi's solar energy industry would "export" electricity.

This is where the minister of energy sounded a bit bizarre:
“In Saudi Arabia, we recognise that eventually, one of these days, we’re not going to need fossil fuels,” said Naimi at a business and climate conference in Paris on Thursday.
“I don’t know when - 2040, 2050 or thereafter. So we have embarked on a program to develop solar energy,” he said in comments reported by the Guardian, Bloomberg, and the Financial Times. “Hopefully, one of these days, instead of exporting fossil fuels, we will be exporting gigawatts of electric power.”
Naimi also said he did not think that continuing low crude oil prices would make solar power uneconomic: “I believe solar will be even more economic than fossil fuels.”
Be that as it may; it is what it is. It's bizarre but it may be telling.

However, what caught my eye was this, buried deep in the article, why I wrote that this is reason #4,534 why I love to blog:
Saudi Arabia had already said in 2012 it aimed to be powered by 100% renewable energy and later that year announced a $109 billion solar plan. In January, that plan was delayed by eight years. 
Their solar program wasn't just delayed a year or two or three or four, it was delayed eight years. Anyone who has spent any time living and/or working in the Mideast knows that a) it took a lot for Saudi to admit this 8-year delay ("losing face"); and, b) "eight years" was simply a figure pulled out of thin air. It's as likely that it will be an 18-year delay.

Ever since I began following the Bakken, it's been my understanding that Saudi Arabia's budget is based on $100 oil. Most of that budget, based on conjecture and what little I know, was before these huge big projects and challenges came along.

These are big ticket items that will not do well on $50 Saudi oil:
  • fighting the war in Yemen
  • fighting ISIS
  • preparing to fight Iran
  • if Saudi decides to go nuclear (and I think they will) that's another huge financial outlay;
  • 1.5 million bopd ($100 million/day on the open market worth of oil) to run its desalination programs; that's about $40 billion /year just for potable water (not agricultural water)
  • $35 billion, 5-year program to sustain current oil production; it's not so much the dollar cost; it's the fact it takes so much of their only resource (oil) to run the plants
  • a $109 billion solar plan (now delayed); there's only one reason to delay, I would imagine: cash flow
  • aggressive, expansive refining program
  • a Bentley for each Saudi pilot striking Yemen: 100 Bentleys
That was a long note for just a single point, but it provides a starting point for the archives with regard to big-ticket items that Saudi Arabia needs to pay for and why their crude oil production needs to increase to meet their new refinery requirements. One almost gets the feeling that if Saudi increases their production from 10.3 million bopd to 11.3 million bopd they are simply running faster to stay in the same place.

By the way, solar is not all it's cracked up to be (a future post on this will be forthcoming; I can hardly wait).

EOG SOP For Shutting In Neighboring Wells When Fracking New Wells -- June 13, 2015

EOG has a long note on a sundry form regarding its "downspacing and infill drilling program" in the file report for this well, explaining an SOP for shutting in neighboring wells when fracking new wells:
  • 16532, 1,285, EOG, N&D 1-05H, Parshall, t7/07; cum 457K 4/15;
The sundry form was dated August 14, 2014.

The NDIC GIS map server appears to be off-line at the moment. When it is back up, if I remember, I will post a screenshot of the activity around this particular well.

Random Update Of MRO's Gertrude Tuhy Well -- June 13, 2015

I noted this well on the MRO-likely-to-be-refracked wells to have been taking off-line in early January, 2014; it is still listed as "IA" but it appears to be back on-line. No sundry form in the files to suggest if it has been refracked; still being followed:
  • 19375, IA/308, MRO, Gertrude Tuhy 34-24H, Chimney Butte, Bakken, 14 stages; 2 million lbs; t3/11; cum 38K 4/15; last production of any note 1/14; update: six days of production in April, 2015;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-20156292730038231543
BAKKEN3-20150000000
BAKKEN2-20150000000
BAKKEN1-20150000000
BAKKEN12-20140000000
BAKKEN11-20140000000
BAKKEN10-20140000000
BAKKEN9-20140000000
BAKKEN8-20140000000
BAKKEN7-2014001300000
BAKKEN6-20141130001400
BAKKEN5-20140000000
BAKKEN4-20140000000
BAKKEN3-20140000000
BAKKEN2-2014361233130905021
BAKKEN1-2014319639311348101670027
BAKKEN12-201327690707106865442788
BAKKEN11-201330777699130670644086
BAKKEN10-201331820934126378154649
BAKKEN9-201330782666119881562514
BAKKEN8-201331852926106084262651
BAKKEN7-201331859687129288767133
BAKKEN6-201330869934129690669828
BAKKEN5-201331937893140595071154
BAKKEN4-2013309571136140894872543
BAKKEN3-201331110010961624108285248
BAKKEN2-2013238528711346771540101
BAKKEN1-201331926919133691869141
BAKKEN12-2012311086902138997975835
BAKKEN11-201230877889111582861533
BAKKEN10-201231867895113184562435
BAKKEN9-201230902877111492870147
BAKKEN8-20123197511241144864566112
BAKKEN7-201230955887107794872252
BAKKEN6-201230114211241217118093862
BAKKEN5-201231114513421212102578653
BAKKEN4-2012261392134718031170666349
BAKKEN3-20122685767230360348492
BAKKEN2-2012204344531023718742
BAKKEN1-201219119913439031038567375
BAKKEN12-20113078367466030513193
BAKKEN11-201122889898702583451105
BAKKEN10-201119837942560537299190
BAKKEN9-2011199321120299979624295
BAKKEN8-201117160511095841233105289
BAKKEN7-20111255766149241727383
BAKKEN6-20113015241770106013931054162
BAKKEN5-2011282116217219451883165368
BAKKEN4-2011292796270321862352214929
BAKKEN3-201113214717969981708160330

Random Note On Two Whiting Smith Federal Wells -- June 13, 205

I track Whiting's Smith Federal wells here, but this update might interest a reader or two. These two wells are still confidential but look at the production profiles to date, especially #28056:
  • 28055, 1,754, Whiting, Smith Federal 41-13PH, Park, s10/10; t5/15; cum 15K 1/16;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-20163195179550152713762137000
BAKKEN12-2015311049610507174314520144590
BAKKEN11-2015301173011687326817290172300
BAKKEN10-201531142831430343862236722011294
BAKKEN9-2015301637216418412724578245190
BAKKEN8-2015271782218138376724543244920
BAKKEN7-201531249622464259993066130332267
BAKKEN6-201530245212490681462809327617416
BAKKEN5-201517647060834051783565991210
BAKKEN4-2015134838483520165838579226
BAKKEN3-2015261499514868946117672152732348

  • 28056, conf, Whiting, Smith Federal 44-12PH, Park, s10/14; producing, 17K first month, 3/15:

    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN1-2016311240112404215526402263400
    BAKKEN12-2015311427414359239828991289300
    BAKKEN11-2015301664416542273428921288610
    BAKKEN10-201531199802003733663389033393436
    BAKKEN9-2015271927119519319228855288030
    BAKKEN8-2015312512925044331134333342710
    BAKKEN7-201531302843057638243996339752149
    BAKKEN6-201530257592578827783001129208743
    BAKKEN5-2015312283522969264024426229791387
    BAKKEN4-2015292962329659938531648274594133
    BAKKEN3-20152417567167961349117586137883754