Tyler Formation: Correction

For newbies: EUR is "estimated ultimate recovery." This is the estimate (in barrels of production) that a given well will produce in the well's lifetime. Some (many? most?) of the wells in North Dakota will last for decades.

Stephan Nordeng, a Department of Mineral Resources geologist, says more than 100 wells have been drilled into the Tyler formation and have produced more than 200 million barrels of oil to date.

By my calculations, that works out to a EUR of 2 million barrels/well.

What's the "party line" for the Bakken? 700,000?

SPOILER ALERT ----  SPOILER ALERT ---- SPOILER ALERT

I have been told that the "200 millions of oil to date" is incorrect and should have been 20 million bbls; see first comment below.

The 20 million figure appears correct, according to the NDIC website. But even 20 million is too high; it's closer to 17 million, so for rounding 20 is okay, but it is still significantly on the high side. One could have rounded to 15 and been closer.

There are three possibilities to explain the "200 bbls" figure: a) he misspoke (possible); b) typo by the newspaper (most likely); or, c) not sure what he is including in the "Tyler." If one includes the Heath formation which is directly below the Tyler, one can add another 65 million cumulative barrels, but 17 plust 65 is still less than 200.

However, doing that does not jive with the number of wells drilled.  There have been 87 wells drilled into Tyler and Tyler A, and 197 wells drilled into the Heath.

17 million / 87 wells = a more reasonable 200,000 bbls/well -- old wells, old technology.

By the way, the quote that more than 100 wells have produced more than 200 million barrels of oil was carried in at least two regional newspapers, the Billings Gazette and the Dickinson Press. I would assume a correction has been published but I have not seen it.

Leasing Question Regarding Tyler Formation

Someone writes to tell me that their family has not seen leasing activity in 15 years but with the recent news on the Tyler formation and with Bakken activity in general, they are now getting lots of leasing requests. He/she asked for help with how to proceed.

This blog is not good for that kind of thing, but I directed him/her to the Bakken Shale Discussion Group saying there were lots of folks there who have that kind of experience.

(The only advice I can offer is don't sell your mineral rights. No.Matter.How.Good.The.Offer.Sounds.)

I don't own any mineral rights but this has to be very, very exciting. Good luck to all.

Mainstream Media Throwing in the Towel on Renewables?

They say you can't fight the Fed, and it seems you can't fight fossil fuels, either. Even The New York Times realizes this (by the way, Jim Cramer on Fast Money said something to this effect earlier this week or last week -- I was quite surprised).  A perfect storm? a) President Obama desperately needs jobs; b) price of oil trending upwards; c) mainstream media throwing in the towel on renewables; d) GOP control of the House with a strong message from the people -- they won't stay there if they don't follow through.

Here are the headline stories on the front page of the Business Day / Energy Section of today's issue of The New York Times:

• There Will Be Fuel: Recent discoveries of oil and natural gas fields and new mining technology have combined to help increase the world's supply of energy for decades to come. Repeat: decades to come. Peak oil theory, anyone?
• In the Heartland, Still Investing in Coal: Despite calls to cut greenhouse gases, numerous coal plats under construction today are likely to be pumping out carbon dioxide until at least 2050.
• Diesel, Cleaner, Is Set to Make a Comeback: With advances in diesel engineering and heightened interest in fuel economy, cars with diesel-powered engines are starting to sell again in the United States.
• When Uranium Outshines Gold: Nuclear power projects worldwide, especially in China, are driving up prices for uranium earlier than industry insiders expected.
• Solar Storm Risks Bring Disaster Plans: The growth of the transmission network in the United States has increased the risk that a severe solar storm will cause crippling damage.
• GOP Gains on Capitol Hill May Not Advance Nuclear Power: Many Republicans support building more nuclear reactors, but several factors make the outlook for new plants mixed at best.
• Some Exceptions to the Rule, but Pipelines are Safer: Oil and gas industry expers say that despite several major accidents this year, pipelines are getting safer as technology improves.
• Concerns as Solar Installations Join a Desert Ecosystem: With solar projects approved that would cover 42 square miles of California desert, environmentalists rear the impact of industrialization of the desert.

Comments:

• There Will Be Fuel: Proves my assertion that US wasted a decade on renewables
• Still Investing in Coal: North Dakota at the center of new coal technology; and coal ain't gonna go away
• Diesel Is Set to Make a Comeback: It will be interesting to see how many more diesel cars are sold than the GM Volt and the Nissan Leaf combined
• When Uranium Outshines Gold: Everywhere but in the US; but if they need it, North Dakota has uranium, too, but it won't be mined in ND in my investing lifetime
• Pipelines Are Safer: But you can bet the mainstream media will highlight every spill, no matter how small
• Solar Installations Join a Desert Ecosystem: Now, when a oil company wants to drill in the desert, all it has to do is copy what the solar folks did; oil takes up a much smaller surface footprint. Love it. 

The whole New Yorks Times Energy section sounds like it was taken from latest issue of Journal of Oil and Gas. 

I'm really looking forward to stats on diesel cars vs hybrids five years from now.

Fourteen (14) New Permits -- North Dakota, USA

Operators: Whiting (3), American (2), Encore, Cornerstone, Newfield, Oasis, KOG, Anschutz, BEXP, SM, and Hunt.

Fields: Siverston, Catwalk, Big Stick, Carter, Bull Butte, Ray, Poe, Sanish, Murphy Creek, Parshall, and two wildcats.

Both wildcats are in McKenzie County.

Whiting, of course, is in the Sanish field, but surprisingly, it was Hunt in the Parshall field.

On track for 1,658 permits in North Dakota in calendar year 2011.

New Record, Sort Of: 159

159 active drilling rigs in North Dakota according to the NDIC website.

However, it should be noted that Rory sent me the active rig list (from the NDIC website) that clearly showed 159 active rigs on November 15, 2010, despite the NDIC saying there were still 158 active rigs.

Now, see comment below, I've been told that there were 160 active rigs on November 17, 2010, which in fact may be correct. If so, I missed it.

I'll wait for additional feedback before going to 160 as the record. The Director's Cut in December should clear it up. As noted below, on any given day there are rigs taken off the active list because they are in the process of moving, etc., so there's not question that if the "official" count is 159 rigs, in fact, the list could be longer by two or three.