Monday, July 14, 2025

Manic Monday -- July 14, 2025

Locator: 48730B.

NASDAQ hits all-time high.  

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $68.61.

New wells:

  • Tuesday, July 15, 2025: 23 for the month, 23 for the quarter, 453 for the year,
    • 41310, conf, Kraken, Bubba LE 14-11-2 1H,
  • Monday, July 14, 2025: 22 for the month, 22 for the quarter, 452 for the year,
    • 41448, conf, Kraken, Bear Butte 13-12-1 5H,
  • Sunday, July 13, 2025: 21 for the month, 21 for the quarter, 451 for the year,
    • 41449, conf, Kraken, Bubba 14-11-12 2H,
  • Saturday, July 12, 2025: 20 for the month, 20 for the quarter, 450 for the year,
    • 40864, conf, Grayson Mill, Martin 32-36 3H,
    • 40547, conf, Hunt Oil, Clearwater 157-90-24-25H-3,

RBN Energy: XOM's strategy for Wink to Webster Pipeline enhances control of Permian crude. Archived.

The Wink to Webster Pipeline, operated by ExxonMobil, stands out as the largest crude oil pipeline by capacity exiting the prolific Permian Basin in West Texas. 

What makes it even more of a midstream icon is the company’s hands-on management of the entire process, from the production well to the long-haul run to delivery to ExxonMobil’s refineries. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll examine Wink to Webster’s complicated ownership structure, how it connects directly to terminals run by its owners and its destination flexibility.

This is the latest in a series of blogs we’ve written highlighting crude oil pipelines serving the Permian. In Part 1 and Part 3 of this series, we looked at the Longhorn and BridgeTex pipelines, respectively, and what ONEOK has accomplished with these systems since it acquired Magellan Midstream in 2023 (see Tulsa Time). In Part 2 and Part 4, we discussed the EPIC Crude and Gray Oak pipelines, respectively, to the Corpus Christi area, which have both been operating at full capacity. In Part 5, we covered Enterprise Product Partners’ Midland to ECHO (M2E) pipelines. Today, we take a closer look at Wink to Webster (W2W).

As we detailed in Houston Bound, W2W (blue line in Figure 1 below) is operated by ExxonMobil and began commercial service at the end of 2020, transporting oil from Midland, TX — the heart of the Permian’s Midland Basin — to Webster, TX, just south of Houston, and from Webster to Baytown along the Houston Ship Channel. The pipeline’s ownership structure is a bit complicated, so let’s break it down. W2W is owned by Wink Webster Pipeline LLC, a joint venture (JV) initially formed by affiliates of ExxonMobil, Plains All American Pipeline and Lotus Midstream (which was purchased by Energy Transfer in 2023), with MPLX, Delek US and Rattler Midstream joining the JV in August 2019. (Delek controls a 15% stake in the pipeline system, while Diamondback Energy has a 4% interest after its 2022 acquisition of Rattler. Percentages for the other members of the JV have not been disclosed.) In addition, Enterprise announced in January 2020 that it would own a 29% undivided joint interest (UJI) in the pipeline system, represented by its Midland to ECHO 3 pipeline (M2E-3; red line). M2E-3 is often grouped with W2W for capacity and flow analysis — they use the same steel pipe — but is not part of the JV’s legal ownership.

Wink to Webster Midland to ECHO 3 Pipeline Connectivity

Figure 1. Wink to Webster/Midland to ECHO 3 Pipeline Connectivity. Source: RBN

Together with Enterprise’s M2E-3, W2W can move up to 1.5 MMb/d of crude oil. At the time it came online, W2W doubled the total capacity from the Permian to Houston to 3 MMb/d. We should note that Enterprise converted its Midland to ECHO 2 (M2E-2) pipeline to NGL service (and temporarily renamed it the Seminole Pipeline) in early 2024, so Permian-to-Houston capacity is currently at 2.8 MMb/d. Enterprise is expected to convert the line back to crude service — and it’s M2E-2 name — in Q4 2025, which should push overall Houston-bound capacity back to 3 MMb/d.

RBN Energy: foreign firms step up investments i US production and infrastructure. 

The uncertainty and angst spurred by the ongoing trade war doesn’t seem to have dampened foreign companies’ interest in acquiring upstream and midstream energy assets in the U.S. The recent rumor — still unconfirmed — that Mitsubishi Corp. is in talks to acquire Aethon Energy Management’s massive holdings in the Haynesville for a reported $8 billion is only the latest indication that overseas interest may be stronger than ever. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss the latest round of foreign investments in U.S. energy and what’s driving those deals. We’ll also look at the Aethon assets on the block. 

European, Asian and Middle Eastern companies investing in the U.S. energy space isn’t a new phenomenon — Canadian investment is common too, of course. But the pace of foreign interest in U.S. assets has been accelerating the past few years, much of it tied to the global LNG trade. Controlling gas production and promising acreage near existing and planned LNG export terminals can give LNG traders and overseas gas consumers greater control over their feedgas supply, help them manage their supply costs, and enable them to hedge against price volatility. Similarly, investors in LNG liquefaction and export assets gain a greater say on how those facilities are managed, as well as a deeper understanding of how that part of the market works.

A few months ago, in American Pie, we discussed the flurry of foreign investment in U.S. energy production and infrastructure in 2023-24. Today, we’ll follow that up with a look at more recent deals, beginning with the potential sale of Aethon Energy Management, one of U.S.’s largest privately held gas producers. Recent reports suggested that Mitsubishi is in “advanced negotiations,” to acquire Aethon, though the Japanese trading giant said in late June that it “has not made any decision that is consistent with the contents of those reports.” (Back in April, it was reported that Abu Dhabi National Oil Co., or ADNOC, was interested in Aethon.)

Aethon Energy Management’s Production Areas and Gas Gathering Lines in the Haynesville

Figure 1. Aethon Energy Management’s Production Areas and Gas Gathering Lines in the Haynesville. Source: RBN 

Sunday, July 13, 2025

Anticipation -- July 13, 2025

Locator: 48729ARCHIVES.

As time goes on I find myself becoming more and more supportive of President Trump; that could change. I flip flop a lot. This is not ready for prime time. I may change my thoughts by the time I get to the end.  

Trump is working -- if one calls it working -- it's a calling -- it's not work for himself -- but he's "working" 24/7 which gives him an advantage over the judicial and legislative branches of the government. He doesn't take vacations; he works weekends; he expects his people to be working for him to be working 24/7. Golfing? Working.

First up: tariffs. For me, they don't matter. I'm on Trump's side with regard to tariffs. Tariffs are such a small part of the overall economy -- give me a break -- the tariffs don't matter. Trump knows that. But that's all CNBC will talk about tomorrow. If the market drops due to "tariff talk," buy on the dip. I can't buy on the dip. I'm always fully invested. I won't buy on margin. Tariffs is a personal issue with Trump, not a money issue.

Second: Epstein. Talk about ridiculous. Real investors don't care. Epstein. I don't care. At one time, I may have cared. I no longer recall. I don't recall. Regardless, I no longer care about Epstein. 

Third-A: I think folks forget (or didn't hear) that over the weekend President Trump said on x he expects a major announcement regarding Ukraine that will change everything. The success over Iran emboldened Trump, but even without that success, Trump is done being played by Putin. Same with tariffs: Trump is done with being played by Canada, Mexico, and the EU. He also hates tacos. He's a steak and potatoes man. 

Third-B: for all the grief x gets, it's the best social media site, bar none. I'm not "verified" on x yet, and doubt I ever will be -- I'm too cheap, but x is awesome if one knows how to use it.

Fourth: Apple may be in for a shock. My hunch: Trump is getting tired of playing games. He realizes that his first year is starting to wind down. His term is flying by. Hopefully Rubio is taking lessons.

Fifth: I don't know what Jensen Huang (Nvidia) has in store regarding his visit to Beijing. Watch out for that, how Trump could respond. 

Sixth: as an investor and as an American, I am really, really excited about Trump's decision regarding Ukraine, NATO, EU, etc. My hunch: even Zelenskyy will be amazed.

Seventh: Hunter S Thompson would "hate" Trump but he would love Trump's style.

That's all I'm interested in right now.

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A Musical Interlude

If I had all the money in the world, and could go back in time, I would own a house in Laurel Canyon, CA, back in the 60s. 

Link here. 

Considering all their interpersonal relationships and their personal problems, it's amazing they did as well as they did. 

There are times I can argue that for me it's:

  • #1: Mamas and the Papas
  • #2: Blondie
  • #2: The Beach Boys
  • #2: The Beatles
  • #5: CCR
  • #6: Cher: especially her later stuff.

The real difference: the depth of their catalogues. But considering with what they had to work, it's the Mamas and the Papas, #1. 

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Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

 Briefly:

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
  • I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
  • I've now added Oracle to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Oracle.
  • Longer version here.   

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Movie

I may watch Hitchcock's North By Northwest for the second time this weekend.

I am clearly ready for a road trip.

Best music video ever: link here. I was in a fugue state when I filmed this; I easily could have driven off the road at any turn. Posted eleven years ago; 541 views. Yuval Noah Hariri should drive this road some day; play this song.

One-Offs, Non Sequitirs, And One-Liners -- New Blog Feature -- July 13, 2025

Locator: 48728ARCHIVES.

Facebook has really stepped up its game. I can't stand Facebook. But I keep going back.

Pet peeve #3,765: Indians trying to blame Boeing for the Air India 171 crash.

Pet peeve #2.540: my inability to get Yuval Noah Harari out of my mind where he resides rent-free.

Pet peeve #354: trying to find the network on which NASCAR is airing on any given Sunday.

The longer I'm "away" from retirement, the more I appreciate the USAF and the more I miss "everything" F-15.

The longer I'm away from my parents' death, the more I appreciate them.

No one had any idea how much water there is in Texas. 

The rain and flooding continues in the Hill Country. 

The 100-year flood, Grapevine, Texas, 2015. seems fresh in my memory.

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Less Than Brief

Today's NASCAR race at Sonoma: 

In-Season Tournament Quarterfinals: This race marks the quarterfinals of the NASCAR In-Season Tournament, adding an extra layer of pressure and excitement for drivers competing for tournament glory.
Playoff Implications: Points are crucial at this stage of the season. Drivers are fighting to secure positions within the top 16 of the standings to qualify for the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs, which begin at Darlington Raceway on August 31, 2025.

USAF: The longer I'm "away" from retirement, the more I appreciate the USAF and the more I miss "everything" F-15. Link here. My primary a/c, the F-15 when assigned to Bitburg Air Base, Germany, 1983 - 1986. My primary a/c, the F-111 when assigned to RAF Lakenheath, England, 1986 - 1989. My first operational/training flight in the USAF, the B-52, Grand Forks AFB, ND, 1983.

The Fed -- July 13, 2025 -- Not Ready For Prime Time

Locator: 48729THEFED.

The Fed is now facing a president that actually understands economics, micro- and macro. No wonder JPow's hair has become so gray and he himself looks like he has aged significantly in six months. It should be noted that the cost overrun of the Fed's building renovation is trending toward $1 trillion.

So, with that in mind.

I was curious about "current events" regarding the Federal Reserve Bank. I asked ChatGPT. My takeaway: by keeping rates higher than necessary at this point in time will help the Fed's balance sheet. ChatGPT says "the Fed" would never do that. LOL.

I'm only going to post my prompts to ChatGPT. You can do the same thing. 

My first prompt:

The Federal Reserve Bank is self-funded through interest it charges banks. Does the Federal Reserve do better for itself with higher rates or lower rates or does it matter?

Part of the long answer to the first prompt:

My second prompt: 

With the above in mind (unprecedented losses), one might argue that the Federal Reserve Bank is now trying to recoup its losses from 2022 - 2024. Thoughts? 

ChapGPT's short answer: the Fed would never do that.

Third prompt: 

Yes, that would be interesting: how much did the Fed actually lose during 2022 - 2024 and how long it might take to recover?

The answer to that question:

AI Data Centers -- US -- July 13, 2025

Locator: 48727AI.

Note: Perplexity has just launched a new AI web browser. Link here. 

Data centers:

Link here.

Also from Beth, link here with regard to Broadcom (AVGO):

Again: inference demand.

From earlier this year, note the reference to inference demand. Link here. Tag: M5. Apple. AMD.

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Nvidia and Microsoft

Link here.

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US Economy

Fifty largest US publicly traded companies.

Link here.

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The Book Page

The Story of Semiconductors, John Orton, c. 2004. 

Yuval Noah Harari was recently in the news again. Link here.

Yuval needs to look at John Orton's 2004 book on semiconductors.