Sunday, April 17, 2022

The Green Page -- ESG Failed Its First Big Test -- Barron's -- April 17, 2022

Link here. 

From "Themes."

The energy transition is dead. Tracked here. 

Energy Transition is dead. 

I don't subscribe to Barron's but that may be what I may think about as a birthday present. But then I read somewhere that Barron's has really gone downhill. I don't know.  

I Honestly Don't Know What To Make Of This, But I Have My Hunches -- April 17, 2022

Updates

April 19, 2022: not said in the note below -- the Keystone XL would have carried heavy oil from Canada -- the "right kind" of oil now needed by the US. Absolutely fascinating. 

April 19, 2022: the comment below reminds me of our days in Germany buying heating for the first time; quite an experience.

April 19, 2022: see first comment -- for starters, this "US heating oil: $3 / gallon"

A couple weeks ago I was billed $1,040 for 204 gallons ($5.10 / gallon). A friend in New Jersey was heating his house by buying at the diesel fuel pump; their HO price was at $5.38 a gallon, with a 100 gallon minimum.

My sense is that it ties to the loss of Russian oil...you get more diesel per barrel out of a heavy crude than you do from a light one...that also explains the SPR release... 
... as I commented elsewhere earlier today, my guess is this: the 1 million bpd release is meant to offset the loss of Russian oil, both for the US and Europe… 
... remember that the administration’s first frantic moves were to try to get Venezuelan oil and even Iranian oil back on the market to cover that? 
Russian Urals is a medium heavy sour crude, and for refineries that were built to use that kind of crude, one has to find an equivalent grade to replace it, or do some expensive blending of other grades to match it…the SPR is 60% heavier grades, so I'm assuming that’s why they’re pulling it out…most oil we get from shale is sweet and light, typically more expensive, but worthless when one is trying to replace Russian oil losses.

Original Post 

Link here. 


First question: how much is the US producing? Link here. Answer: yawn.

Second question: how much is the US exporting? Link here. If this doesn't surprise you, nothing will.

Third question: why? In round numbers,

  • US heating oil: $3 / gallon
  • Germany: $6 / gallon

Most Astonishing Number Reported In 2021 -- New US Offshore Wind Turbine Installations

Link here. 

Update: in the original poll, I was referring to the linked story above. The linked story referred to offshore wind turbines. 

Seven offshore wind turbines were installed by the US in 2021 according to The Wall Street Union.

Saturday, April 16, 2022

Banks Reporting Robust Credit-Card Spending -- Belies Consumers Glum View Of The Economy -- WSJ -- April 16, 2022

Link here.

U.S. consumers say they aren’t feeling great about the economy. But they have a curious way of showing it.

Pessimism about the economy has been on the rise due to surging inflation and falling household income since pandemic-related stimulus programs expired. But the latest round of bank earnings shows that apprehension hasn’t kept Americans from reaching for their credit cards.
The numbers.

First quarter spending, on credit cards, compared to a year ago:

  • Citigroup: up 23%
  • JPMorgan Chase: up 29%
  • Wells Fargo: up 33%
  • Bank of America: reports Monday, next week, April 18, 2022

I already know what a lot of folks will say about these numbers, but this is what caught my attention:

Bank executives pointed to higher spending on categories like travel, entertainment and dining as evidence of consumer strength. On Chase cards, travel and dining spending on rose 64% in the first quarter. 

“People like getting dressed up to go to dinner again in a restaurant,” Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser said Thursday.

And look at this. Compare 1Q22 with 1Q19, well before the lock downs:

At JPMorgan, spending totaled $236.4 billion, 37% higher than in the first quarter of 2019 and up 59% from its 2020 nadir.

And most interesting:

Inflation doesn’t seem to be straining household balance sheets just yet, JPMorgan Chief Financial Officer Jeremy Barnum said on a call with analysts Wednesday. Delinquencies remain below prepandemic levels. Even lower- and middle-income households aren’t giving the bank cause for concern, Mr. Barnum said.

Jamie Dimon, the bank’s CEO, said he wouldn’t normally expect net charge-offs, the amount the bank doesn’t expect to collect, to fall below 2.5%. It has now been below 1.5% for three straight quarters

Much more at the link.

Sad News: Texas State Girls Soccer Championship -- April 16, 2022

Olivia's team lost. 

Wakeland High School, Frisco, TX, is a perennial favorite and champion.

Olivia's school Grapevine also has a very, very good reputation.

In today's championship game, Grapevine scored first but the score was tied 2 - 2 at the end of regulation time. 

Overtime: two ten-minute periods, no sudden death.

No goals made by either team in the first overtime period.

Second overtime period: Wakeland scored a goal off a header from a corner kick. Time: the five-minute mark. Grapevine continued with strong offense but couldn't answer.

So, that was it. 

But, wow, I doubt there's been a more exciting game. Two-two at the end of regulation time. And going down to the last few minutes of the last period in overtime. 

Medals:

  • Olivia is a sophomore on the varsity team
  • first place in regionals
  • runner-up in state championship
  • her words after the game: next year.

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From North Dakota Yesterday